that explains a lot, but good thing is now they can start buying it back
Man, if tutes are just holding out on SEC resolution...that would be nice.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Man, if tutes are just holding out on SEC resolution...that would be nice.
I don't understand why Tesla still is not starting car insurance business. This has been discussed many times in the past. With one accident every 2 million miles, the combined rate (payout: premium) could be as low as 30%. Most insurance businesses have combined rate of 98~110%. This would force other companies to reduce premium on Tesla cars, but they can't compete because Tesla knows the cars and drivers better, and Tesla can fix the cars in their own shops, real vertical integration. This would benefit car owners too. From insurance business alone, I estimate Tesla can earn $500 from each car per year. That's about $8k (with investment gain) on each car in 10 years, $8B profit from every 1 million cars.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That's very pessimistic. Panasonic just said they installed 35 GWh/year capacity by end of March 31. Even if they were at ~24 GWh in Q1 they'll work hard to at least get closer to 35 GWh. Panasonic actually has more to lose if they endanger their exclusive partnership with Tesla.
So let's assume they get from 24 GWh to close to 35 GWh in say 6 months. That already increases the LR output from 5k/week to 7.3k/week - with SR packs it's up to 10.7k/week - with a 50%/50% mix it's around 8.5k/week.
Plus in China they might choose another cell supplier.
larmor
Active Member
Market appears to price in hyper performance and expectations for tesla only. Even when the GF in China goes up, it will take time to ramp, like any production process. The converse is that if traditional auto manufacturers announce, build, and complete a brand new factory in China, market would be very positive just to the news of that, even if it does not happen for years...
Shorts spin everything negative. No tweets from Elon would be a sign to shorts that bankwuptcy is imminent.
500k is not going to happen especially since they removed the cheap $35k vehicle. In reality that is probably their smartest move in a while because it makes no sense to sell vehicles that they take a loss on and it would be nice to see an actual profit at some point on this company.
Most companies don't monitor taxi rates that closely. As long as you don't show up to the client site in a limo, you are unlikely to be questioned. (former biz traveler, IBM, Accenture, PWC)
Following up on a post I made over the weekend: My wife does some work in vehicle automation and sent me a copy of the SAE automated driving levels document.
The document does, indeed, appear to require that, no matter what happens, the car has to continue managing itself for at least "several seconds" after a failure before handing control back to the user to be considered fully level 3. That seems crazy to me in that that would still apply if all sensors went dark simultaneously, but it's there. As written, it would seem to require the ADS to continue functioning for several seconds even if the entire car was vaporized by a nuclear bomb.
That said, that appears to be the only condition of level 3 automation that Navigate on Autopilot doesn't currently meet(I think... I've never actually gotten or heard about anyone else getting the sudden red-hands with NoA active...) in its freeway driving ODD. Even the fallback requirements are met for any normal road conditions it can't handle. Some of the features are even venturing into level 4, with fallback to a different computer system state instead of the human(e.g. during heavy rain or too tight of a curve NoA falls back to standard autopilot).
The document does, indeed, appear to require that, no matter what happens, the car has to continue managing itself for at least "several seconds" after a failure before handing control back to the user to be considered fully level 3. That seems crazy to me in that that would still apply if all sensors went dark simultaneously, but it's there. As written, it would seem to require the ADS to continue functioning for several seconds even if the entire car was vaporized by a nuclear bomb.
That said, that appears to be the only condition of level 3 automation that Navigate on Autopilot doesn't currently meet(I think... I've never actually gotten or heard about anyone else getting the sudden red-hands with NoA active...) in its freeway driving ODD. Even the fallback requirements are met for any normal road conditions it can't handle. Some of the features are even venturing into level 4, with fallback to a different computer system state instead of the human(e.g. during heavy rain or too tight of a curve NoA falls back to standard autopilot).
I'm assuming you got Rip Van Winkle'd some time before October '18 and just woke up?
Panasonic said that they installed lines, but all equipment is not yet operational
Musk offers a narrative that directly competes with statements issued by Panasonic. The Japanese electronics group told Nikkei that the Gigafactory attained the 35 gwh capacity during the fiscal year ended in March. However, Panasonic adds that not all the installed equipment is operational, and that the company has not publicized the actual production performance.
Tesla shares flat after Musk blames Panasonic for Gigafactory woes
Lol if the install equipment isn't operational then you're not at 35 gwh capacity! That's a pretty big "However"
Thumper
Active Member
OT. My heart goes out to our French members and all of Europe for the damage to Nôtre Dame.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Here, here.
Dan
Mod: while I'm sure most readers (including me) here agree, this is not a thread where we want more postings that are irrelevant to the thread. We will delete any such postings from here on. --ggr.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
These guys need to go back to school and learn English.
Panasonic statement is supporting Musk's statement. Not "competing" with his narrative.
this is why I don't really like hyping up FSD from an investor perspective. it's great if it works out, but that's not why TSLA is undervalued right now imo.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
YES. Its why Waymo and some other companies are WAY OVERVALUED.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Look at the VIN registrations lately. It's like 80% RWD. Since LR only comes in AWD/P we know that those 80% RWD are all SR+ Model 3s.
LR has 78KWh. SR+ has 54KWh. Do the math. There's enough bty cells to make 7K Model 3s per week. That's 350K in the next 12 months.
Further, add 80K S/X per guidance, and China needs to make only 70K from start of production to 2020Q2. That's about 23 weeks of production. So if GF3/Shanghai is producing Model 3s by about Nov, then the numbers add up to 500K total in the next 12 months.
My understanding is that it is very hard and very expensive to get in the insurance business. Every state has a mountain of regulations, so you need a few lawyers for each state. Once in, of course, it's a print money machine.
And that would differ from the shorts' take on tweets from Elon because...
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