Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

I didn't realize just how bad it's been for automakers not named Tesla the past week. Solving the Money Problem sums it up pretty well:

- Toyota CHEATED safety tests (on 4 vehicles)
- Ford -102% EV margins (RIP)
- BYD gave up on FSD
- VW = fooked (can’t figure out software)
- China ICE market IMPLODING
- Lucid = fooked (money furnace & can’t sell vehicles)
- Rivian bleeding $

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655851551972540416

You forgot Fisker. Fisker cut its full 2023 year production target down to 32,000-36,000 from 42,400. Fisker expected to only produce 1,400-1,700 for Q2, so even the revised target seems near impossible. FSR down 15% pre-market.

Fisker cuts production forecast as challenges mount for EV startups

Shares of the company slumped 12% in premarket trading. The results follow weak earnings and a production outlook cut overnight from Lucid Group Inc, sending its stock tumbling 10%. Fisker now expects to produce between 32,000 and 36,000 units in 2023, compared with its previous target of...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Who would have thought the EV auto market would turn into a one pony race.

 

[nativewolf]

You forgot Fisker. Fisker cut its full 2023 year production target down to 32,000-36,000 from 42,400. Fisker expected to only produce 1,400-1,700 for Q2, so even the revised target seems near impossible. FSR down 15% pre-market.

Fisker cuts production forecast as challenges mount for EV startups

Shares of the company slumped 12% in premarket trading. The results follow weak earnings and a production outlook cut overnight from Lucid Group Inc, sending its stock tumbling 10%. Fisker now expects to produce between 32,000 and 36,000 units in 2023, compared with its previous target of...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Who would have thought the EV auto market would turn into a one pony race.

I didn't realize just how bad it's been for automakers not named Tesla the past week. Solving the Money Problem sums it up pretty well:

- Toyota CHEATED safety tests (on 4 vehicles)
- Ford -102% EV margins (RIP)
- BYD gave up on FSD
- VW = fooked (can’t figure out software)
- China ICE market IMPLODING
- Lucid = fooked (money furnace & can’t sell vehicles)
- Rivian bleeding $

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655851551972540416

BYD that announced huge profits? Ford whom EM says is operating a smart EV strategy? Ford who struck a battery IP technology transfer agreement with CATL that was so smart Tesla copied them? Be careful cherry picking news items to support that opposing entities may be dead when in fact...they are executing. The same sorts of comments you post about everyone else could have been made about Tesla years ago. In particular understand if something like ICE markets in China imploding have anything to do with Tesla. Or is it the changes in state policy (it is) that has nothing to do with Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

You forgot Fisker. Fisker cut its full 2023 year production target down to 32,000-36,000 from 42,400. Fisker expected to only produce 1,400-1,700 for Q2, so even the revised target seems near impossible. FSR down 15% pre-market.

Fisker cuts production forecast as challenges mount for EV startups

Shares of the company slumped 12% in premarket trading. The results follow weak earnings and a production outlook cut overnight from Lucid Group Inc, sending its stock tumbling 10%. Fisker now expects to produce between 32,000 and 36,000 units in 2023, compared with its previous target of...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Who would have thought the EV auto market would turn into a one pony race.

Produces roughly same as lucid by loses 1/6th of what they loss every quarter. I mean this is a much better turd. Sometimes I just wonder if companies just loses money according to their cash on hand regardless of execution. Oh we have 4B of cash? Let's burn a billion a quarter then. Oh we have 200M of cash? Let's burn 20M a quarter then.

 

[EVMeister]

BYD that announced huge profits? Ford whom EM says is operating a smart EV strategy? Ford who struck a battery IP technology transfer agreement with CATL that was so smart Tesla copied them? Be careful cherry picking news items to support that opposing entities may be dead when in fact...they are executing. The same sorts of comments you post about everyone else could have been made about Tesla years ago. In particular understand if something like ICE markets in China imploding have anything to do with Tesla. Or is it the changes in state policy (it is) that has nothing to do with Tesla.

Ford investor per chance?

 

[nativewolf]

Ford investor per chance?

No, shoot I am so poor I don't own any stock any longer. Everything is into the sustainable forestry company and that makes it or not. This year we've turned a corner so a huge crushing pressure is off (nearly lost farm). Extended family has quite a bit of TSLA and I doubt ford except in index mutual fund investments.

 

[nativewolf]

Produces roughly same as lucid by loses 1/6th of what they loss every quarter. I mean this is a much better turd. Sometimes I just wonder if companies just loses money according to their cash on hand regardless of execution. Oh we have 4B of cash? Let's burn a billion a quarter then. Oh we have 200M of cash? Let's burn 20M a quarter then.

To me the lack of urgency (looking at you Rivian) is even more startling. It's ok to burn cash if you have some velocity and profits are possible. Rivian had so so much cash and just burned it for years with no production...nor any plans to achieve production. Just shocking.

BYD doesn't make that mistake and Ford to their credit at least demonstrates they understand the risk ( can they be the first western OEM to pull of a transition or not? who knows but I hope so).

 

[FireMedic]

View attachment 936105

Because it was the giga-not-a-truck

 

[Singuy]

To me the lack of urgency (looking at you Rivian) is even more startling. It's ok to burn cash if you have some velocity and profits are possible. Rivian had so so much cash and just burned it for years with no production...nor any plans to achieve production. Just shocking.

BYD doesn't make that mistake and Ford to their credit at least demonstrates they understand the risk ( can they be the first western OEM to pull of a transition or not? who knows but I hope so).

BYD seems to be hitting metrics by cutting corners though. Chinese survey ranks their cars almost first when it comes to number of complaints and they seem to under pay their workers compared to Tesla.

 

[nativewolf]

BYD seems to be hitting metrics by cutting corners though. Chinese survey ranks their cars almost first when it comes to number of complaints and they seem to under pay their workers compared to Tesla.

Yep, it is a very valid concern. I also expect that they have two quality products, export and domestic. In the EV comp thread I mentioned that I see them as a likely to succeed. Part of that is just that they have scale, they are state backed, and at least have some clue. I honestly think that most large western OEMs don't have any combination of those. Toyota, Mercedes, Honda, GM, etc...long on press releases short of product.

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree. How many times have you heard Elon and Tesla plea for others to please refine more lithium? The quantity they've chosen is likely a drop in the bucket for long-term worldwide lithium needs, but closes the gap on Tesla's short/mid term needs. I can see them expanding capacity if things don't change on the lithium refining front in a couple more years. Tesla doesn't want to do this, but they decided that they must. Soon they'll have the hard data for what it costs to procure lithium at $XX/lb and will be able to intelligently decide to secure future lithium quantities via long-term contract or building /expanding their refining operations. Many books will be written about this company!

They said it as many times as they said others needed to build battery factories. I suspect the outcome to be the same for lithium refining - Tesla will get a 5+ year head start before anyone else’s committee finishes their initial review of the situation.

It’s like absolutely nobody else of consequence gets it. All they see is that they need to protect their current businesses rather than seeing the immense potential in pivoting their businesses. Epic dumbassery.

 

[Krugerrand]

Who would have thought the EV auto market would turn into a one pony race.

 

[FireMedic]

Clearly the market values cheat codes (TOYOF +3%) above lithium refining (TSLA -1.8%).

Makes sense; Wall Street identifies more with cheaters than with the innovative engineering types.

 

[2daMoon]

They said it as many times as they said others needed to build battery factories. I suspect the outcome to be the same for lithium refining - Tesla will get a 5+ year head start before anyone else’s committee finishes their initial review of the situation.

It’s like absolutely nobody else of consequence gets it. All they see is that they need to protect their current businesses rather than seeing the immense potential in pivoting their businesses. Epic dumbassery.

They could also prove out the fast factory construction methods and the new lithium refining techniques, then, share them and/or establish partnerships in order to get additional refiners on line quickly.

But, yeah, it will still be 5 years down the line.

 

[nativewolf]

They said it as many times as they said others needed to build battery factories. I suspect the outcome to be the same for lithium refining - Tesla will get a 5+ year head start before anyone else’s committee finishes their initial review of the situation.

It’s like absolutely nobody else of consequence gets it. All they see is that they need to protect their current businesses rather than seeing the immense potential in pivoting their businesses. Epic dumbassery.

Ford is on the ground buying mineral rights now, fyi. Also Tesla copied fords IP battery tech transfer agreement. LG- clearly gets it and has in fact acted more aggressively than Tesla in mineral rights acquisition and refining. Japan inc could easily still do this, Japans global trading reach is poorly understood by most outside Asia. It's a monster. Will they get serious in time? Who knows. They can though and if required they'll act. Japan has significantly better social/political relations in Asia for some of the critical resources.

 

[Mengy]

They could also prove out the fast factory construction methods and the new lithium refining techniques, then, share them and/or establish partnerships in order to get additional refiners on line quickly.

I think Tesla would simply build additional refineries themselves rather than partner with anyone else, particularly since Tesla is so adept at building manufacturing and especially after they perfect their own refining techniques. Which they will do in two years once they have their own lithium refinery up and running.

Tesla battery production is going to be off the hook by 2030.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You forgot Fisker. Fisker cut its full 2023 year production target down to 32,000-36,000 from 42,400. Fisker expected to only produce 1,400-1,700 for Q2, so even the revised target seems near impossible. FSR down 15% pre-market.

Fisker cuts production forecast as challenges mount for EV startups

Shares of the company slumped 12% in premarket trading. The results follow weak earnings and a production outlook cut overnight from Lucid Group Inc, sending its stock tumbling 10%. Fisker now expects to produce between 32,000 and 36,000 units in 2023, compared with its previous target of...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Who would have thought the EV auto market would turn into a one pony race.

Another one I am gonna go with a big "NO" on production target for 2023. Seems the rhetoric is "Let's get gamblers to invest by overstating lofty prod numbers for 2023"''

At least they made an effort to 'add' to the 'suppy chain issues' excuse

 

[GOVA]

Something to tide y'all over until the opening bell on Tuesday.

Ellie In Space got some good walk-around shots of our favorite pickup at the ground-breaking in Robstown. During one pass there's a good look at that windshield wiper everybody loves so much.

I have got to tell you - that fit/finish on the CT looks great. Production quality for sure. Should have ordered more than 1.

 

[MP3Mike]

Also Tesla copied fords IP battery tech transfer agreement.

We don't know if anyone copied anyone. Tesla could have been working on the agreement before Ford, and it just wasn't made public until later. Or they could have been working on them in parallel. But we do know that all of the OEMs have been coping Tesla, at least in terms of partnering with battery manufacturers on opening plants in the US. Tesla started that in 2014...

LG- clearly gets it and has in fact acted more aggressively than Tesla in mineral rights acquisition and refining.

More aggressively? Tesla has been securing mineral supplies since about 2015. (They procure the minerals that Panasonic uses at GigaNevada.) And Tesla consumes more batteries than anyone else.

 

[2daMoon]

I think Tesla would simply build additional refineries themselves rather than partner with anyone else, particularly since Tesla is so adept at building manufacturing and especially after they perfect their own refining techniques. Which they will do in two years once they have their own lithium refinery up and running.

Tesla battery production is going to be off the hook by 2030.

They could simultaneously build more of their own and promote duplication of the concept by others.

At this stage it isn't like the Lithium market is limited by anything, other than not having a vision for the future.

 

[unk45]

I'm wondering who carries the debt on a new vehicle that's for sale on a Dealer lot, Banks? Same banks that are tightening Dealership money? I wonder if the rush to stuff the lots was in order to beat the banks at money tightening while OEM production got back on it's feet.

I'm seeing large inventory (from a several youtubers) of crazy high priced new trucks like Ford. Toyota included with mostly higher end inventory in the USA. So if these are priced at $80-110K a pop, and then the dealer has to eventually drop the price in order to move them, who's loss on paper is that before a sale is made? In other words, if they go upside down and still don't move off the lot, how much more could this stress those already stressed banks? Any reason for added concern, or small potatoes compared to commercial real estate dilema?

The largest lender to auto dealers for floor planning, facilities, and buying retail and fleet financing is Ally Financial (successor to GMAC when GM went bankrupt). Second largest was Capital One before they quit the business recently. Chase has auto finance and private label captives. Then, brand by brand captives are usually the largest, such as Nissan (NMAC), Ford (FMCC) and so on. In present conditions there are subsidies to dealer finance, consumer sales and more. Check Automotive News for regular updates that contain most US public information. Some of these categories are not consistently reported…

Right now the various types of subvention, dealer, F&I and consumer incentives are riding very rapidly in the US and many other countries.