I think the most likely scenario is a run up to around $240-$250 in the next couple of months, followed by a dip to $200 following Q2 earnings or lower if macro numbers look bad, then a rebound back to $250 through the end of the year. There are potential surprises of course, but I'm not counting on them happening this year. Next year is more ripe for pleasant surprises such as huge FSD advancement, better than expected Cybertruck production and margins, or initial success of the Semi.
I hope you're right though