Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I'm talking sessions, not laps. Session is usually 20-30min, i.e. ~10 laps on a long track (Mosport is 4km, Watking Glen and Calabogie longer still).

Your thinking is not representative of people that actually go to track often. With all due respect, I'm glad you enjoyed a bit of experience, but I feel I'm better qualified to judge for this purpose. 12 years of track going.

I need car to be able to run at least 40 hard laps a day, not 10-20 that it can do on a charge.

You are getting far too hung up on semantics, and with all due respect your tone is extremely condescending. If you wish to get your underwear in a bunch over the word "comparable" that's up to you. Replace that word if you wish. My intent was talking "comparable" times around a track, which is where the P3D. I believe I even said that a P3D is not a great dedicated track car, but is just fine for the occasional weekend warrior.

Furthermore a P3D can certainly do more than 10 laps on a full charge. When we get SCs or CCS chargers at tracks that will be even better.

 

[Lessmog]

Another advantage is the EU political support Poland could provide: with no significant domestic automaker Poland could be an EU member that would prevent most EU level Volkswagen/BMW/Mercedes shenanigans that Tesla would certainly be exposed to if the GF4 was in Germany.

The proposed German EV incentives with a cut-off at 4.65m car length, blatantly excluding the Model 3 which is 3.69m long? ... That's a slap in the face for GF4 in Germany, IMHO.

You lost a full meter there ...

OH, and: Germany lost a GF4 over 4 cm!

Due to its population size Poland is one of the strongest 'new' members in the European Union.



Yeah, but only if you are member of the Sarah Palin family!

On the other hand, many Poles have no trouble seeing Sweden (from here) and are very industrious workers.
Plenty of construction and renovation tasks.

 

[EVNow]

Maybe this is why;



Health Stocks Crumble as Fears of ‘Medicare for All’ Snowball

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Oh … I didn't realize that ARKK has a drug problem

I should look for something else. ARKQ - is that the one without genomics ?

ps : I don't think M4A should affect genomics, per se, but I can see how exorbitant prices won't be possible. If markets is expecting high prices, then it makes sense for genomics to dip as well.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fred alert.

His bias is so obvious with this comment

"Between more efficient motors and a more energy dense battery pack, Model S and Model X could get big range and performance upgrades – making the vehicles much more competitive in their respective segments."

What competition??? No other EV out there is competitive with the current version of the S/X. Also F" off Fred with your leaking of information. His leaks this story then writes up another story the next day saying he's worried about demand for current S/X. Gee no sh*t Sherlock.

Tesla should just get out in front this by saying a S/X refresh is coming but that it's going to cost more, like 10k more for each version(standard and long range). You'll have people wanting to get in the lower price in the current forms plus guarantee that they'll get the 3850 tax credit before it get's halved again.

 

[KarenRei]

New all-time first-month-of-the-quarter record in Norway:

Tesla Registration Stats

... only halfway through the month This is just on residual inventory.

 

[Fact Checking]

You lost a full meter there ...

Indeed - fixed my comment. The proposed German EV law with generous incentives apply up to a car length of 3.65m. The Model 3 is 3.69m long, while the VW I.D. is comfortably included...

I think German automakers overplayed their hands there a bit: they should have lured Tesla in first and then used their captured German political influence to screw Tesla ...

With Tesla in Poland they'll be a much bigger PITA to German carmakers than in Germany with its infinitely large mazes of bureaucracy and the political influence of the German car lobby.

 

[Nocturnal]

Fred alert.

His bias is so obvious with this comment

"Between more efficient motors and a more energy dense battery pack, Model S and Model X could get big range and performance upgrades – making the vehicles much more competitive in their respective segments."

What competition??? No other EV out there is competitive with the current version of the S/X. Also F" off Fred with your leaking of information. His leaks this story then writes up another story the next day saying he's worried about demand for current S/X. Gee no sh*t Sherlock.

Tesla should just get out in front this by saying a S/X refresh is coming but that it's going to cost more, like 10k more for each version(standard and long range). You'll have people wanting to get in the lower price in the current forms plus guarantee that they'll get the 3850 tax credit before it get's halved again.

Or something like "anybody buying a pre-refresh S/X starting now receives free FSD" or something. This shouldn't be a big deal, every single car maker deals with this every December.

 

[ReflexFunds]

If the 24GWh capacity became a concern it'd imply that there'd be enough demand to get Panasonic to add more lines. Model 3 sales will largely be SR+ packs, and 24GWh/year is 400,000 60kWh packs per year.

It looks like SR+ is just 55kWh.
The problem with adding new capacity is if Panasonic build new cell lines but then soon after manage to ramp up the existing lines to their current 35gWh design capacity, they will then have excess capacity until Y is in mass production - some lines will then have to be idled and profitability will be significantly impacted. Much better to just get the current lines from 24gWh to their 35gWh capacity. But not clear what the bottlenecks are to achieving this.

 

[KarenRei]

Or something like "anybody buying a pre-refresh S/X starting now receives free FSD" or something. This shouldn't be a big deal, every single car maker deals with this every December.

I expect it to go something like this:

• Someone will inevitably ask Musk about it in the earnings call.
• Musk will confirm that they're working on it, but play it down, and add that it'll be significantly more expensive than the current line.
• When it comes out, existing S+X inventory will be discounted, while the price on the newer versions will be higher. Margins on the new version will be hilariously high.
• Over time they'll steadily reduce the price on the new version, and keep reducing whenever needed to make sales volumes match up to their targets. If demand stays high at high prices, prices will stay high.

Should be a massive profit earner.

 

[EVNow]

I'm calling my shot now, GF4 will be in Gdansk, Poland.

Low taxes, cheaper labor, seaport. Can see Sweden from your house.

Listen to the words of Dubya, "Don't forget Poland.".

Wonder if there are any existing plants Tesla can take over. Fiat is the biggest manufacturer in Poland with a 100 year experience. There are a lot of auto plants in Poland - so there should be a enough skilled labor.

 

[shrspeedblade]

You are getting far too hung up on semantics, and with all due respect your tone is extremely condescending. If you wish to get your underwear in a bunch over the word "comparable" that's up to you. Replace that word if you wish. My intent was talking "comparable" times around a track, which is where the P3D. I believe I even said that a P3D is not a great dedicated track car, but is just fine for the occasional weekend warrior.

Furthermore a P3D can certainly do more than 10 laps on a full charge. When we get SCs or CCS chargers at tracks that will be even better.

As a grizzled veteran with decades of track experience said (paraphrased) to me once: real track cars show up and leave on a trailer.
(And I would add have high temp pads, a cage, head/neck restraint, and a fire suppression system.)

Few cars stand up to heavy track work, regardless of their power train, and none produced in significant quantities.

 

[Krugerrand]

Fred alert.

His bias is so obvious with this comment

"Between more efficient motors and a more energy dense battery pack, Model S and Model X could get big range and performance upgrades – making the vehicles much more competitive in their respective segments."

What competition??? No other EV out there is competitive with the current version of the S/X. Also F" off Fred with your leaking of information. His leaks this story then writes up another story the next day saying he's worried about demand for current S/X. Gee no sh*t Sherlock.

Tesla should just get out in front this by saying a S/X refresh is coming but that it's going to cost more, like 10k more for each version(standard and long range). You'll have people wanting to get in the lower price in the current forms plus guarantee that they'll get the 3850 tax credit before it get's halved again.

To be fair, he didn’t start the leak. But right on time, exactly what I posted about earlier today. In fact, the very first post after mine on the topic was a link to Fred’s article.

So yeah, not cool in any way for buddy on Twitter to reveal what he did.

 

[ZachF]

Remember fellahs, time is one our side....

Can the Oil Industry Win Over Generation Z?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/oil-stocks-need-to-win-over-gen-z-investors-barclays-says

I'll take "No" for $500, Alex

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Bought some ARKK this morning. Had too much of my money in my employers stock, so needed to diversify, and is a good way to put more into Tesla while also branching out a bit.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I am repeating myself here but...
I read most of this chatter in the media about the Model S/X refresh as an attempt to Osborn S & X sales.
We here may be enthusiastic about the possible coming changes.
The general public thinks "hold off on buying".
Makes me wonder if "Fred" is "Brodering" Tesla

 

[Lessmog]

Indeed - fixed my comment. The proposed German EV law with generous incentives apply up to a car length of 3.65m. The Model 3 is 3.69m long, while the VW I.D. is comfortably included...

I think German automakers overplayed their hands there a bit: they should have lured Tesla in first and then used their captured German political influence to screw Tesla ...

With Tesla in Poland they'll be a much bigger PITA to German carmakers than in Germany with its infinitely large mazes of bureaucracy and the political influence of the German car lobby.

Sorry, but have to FC the FC
The lost meter goes the other way: Model3 is over 4.5 meters long. MS is almost 5 meters!

From Model3 manual (crudely quoted) :

Exterior Dimensions
A Overall Length 184.8 in 4694 mm
B
Overall Width (including mirrors) Overall Width (including folded mirrors Overall Width (excluding mirrors)
82 in 76 in 73 in
2089 mm 1933 mm 1850 mm
C Overall Height - coil suspension 57 in 1443 mm
D Wheel Base 113.2 in 2875 mm
E Overhang - Front 33 in 841 mm
F Overhang - Rear 39 in 978 mm G Ground Clearance - coil suspension 5.5 in 140 mm

 

[mikevbf]

I expect it to go something like this:

• Someone will inevitably ask Musk about it in the earnings call.
• Musk will confirm that they're working on it, but play it down, and add that it'll be significantly more expensive than the current line.
• When it comes out, existing S+X inventory will be discounted, while the price on the newer versions will be higher. Margins on the new version will be hilariously high.
• Over time they'll steadily reduce the price on the new version, and keep reducing whenever needed to make sales volumes match up to their targets. If demand stays high at high prices, prices will stay high.

Should be a massive profit earner.

Musk will more likely just give his regular line that Tesla is not like other companies and is always improving vehicles as improvements are discovered and able to implement. It will take someone pressing a little harder for detail on something like batteries, model 3 interior, motors etc to push him to the point of semi announcing something, sliding sideways with question, or just saying he is not going to answer the question. The latter would indicate an affirmative to me.

 

[Lessmog]

I am repeating myself here but...
I read most of this chatter in the media about the Model S/X refresh as an attempt to Osborn S & X sales.
We here may be enthusiastic about the possible coming changes.
The general public thinks "hold off on buying".
Makes me wonder if "Fred" is "Brodering" Tesla

Yah, maybe NYT has an opening for another inventive reporter?
And maybe he can commute with one R2 or the other?

 

[Antares Nebula]

I'm just so glad we had that dip! (*breathes*!) The buying in advance of this weekend came earlier than I expected.... I had falsely interpreted that plunge on monday as weakness and a lack of enthusiasm, and thought I had more time.

Perhaps this goes without saying, but next week is pivotal given the two news events, Mon and Wed. We will in all likelihood break out of this month's long wedge, hopefully to the upside. We will either be above 300 or under 240 by the end of next week. Place your bets! I'm holding long and strong, but will probably buy some puts for insurance (as I usually do during big events).

 

[Tslynk67]

Perhaps this goes without saying, but next week is pivotal given the two news events, Mon and Wed. We will in all likelihood break out of this month's long wedge, hopefully to the upside. We will either be above 300 or under 240 by the end of next week. Place your bets! I'm holding long and strong, but will probably buy some puts for insurance (as I usually do during big events).

Don't forget SEC news thrown into the mix...