Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

Good view of the CybrFrunk

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672998488114868234

And Franz showed up at Peterson’ cars and coffee with a CyberTruck.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673008130530369536

The front facia lifting with the CyberFrunk hood is gonna be handy....

 

[2daMoon]

There's one caveat to this. I bet you know how to get out of a roadside bind, maybe do some repairs yourself. I'm the same way, every trip came with a serious tool box in the trunk. I'd be concerned to go far without it. My "good" tires were $13 each used (I tried to match the rears for height, but not always). And my '63 Buick usually had a spare starter in the trunk along with hoses and belts and 2-4 gal of antifreeze. I'm guessing I got it up to about 250K mi. there.

But aren't the parts going to become more rare and costly? These 2nd and 3rd tier legacy suppliers, does anyone think they all survive when their key customer is also going under? My Buick sure was a challenge for parts. Only the parts also used on a common set of vehicles.

Then there's the shaming approach to accelerate transition. It would take a long time, but if folks had a choice to use ICE or EV Rideshare, even Robotaxi... just social pressure could go a long way. But that's a few years out still, right? Keep in mind, the Atlantic is coughing up storms pretty early in the season, and my forecast said 114F next week.

Oh yeah. I have always carried tools, and sometimes parts if I suspected something specific might go awry. I carried a water pump rebuild kit on my KTM 950 Adventure motorcycle for 30K miles, but never needed it.

As for parts availability, there are some hard rules for the OEMs to support parts supply for X number of years. But, if they are bankrupt and shuttered, well, who's going to be sued when the parts aren't available, right? Though, never underestimate the aftermarket for filling that gap. Look at the parts availability for many classics.

I agree that EV Rideshare and Robotaxi are the wild cards. Once these are dominant, and easily available without a wait, it will be a quick decision to save money by ditching the ICE and not owning a car at all. This wild card, when played, will be the trump card that significantly accelerates the transition to a few years rather than a decade or more to be rid of ICE. It will provide a 4 to 1 offset or greater for waiting on the production ramp when one vehicle is able to do the work of four or five.

 

[Captkerosene]

Elon's comments on DOJO (Dept. of Journalistic Oversight) and the possibility of selling training services beg the question "Will Tesla Automation someday offer bespoke design and production of specialized manufacturing equipment?" It seems to be the natural progression given our capabilities in this area. Optimus is a great general purpose bot but there are thousands of potential form factors better suited to specific purposes. Could become a nice profit center over time and keep us at the forefront of the tech.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The difference between a medium sized pond that is 50% overgrown with algae and dead is only a couple of days. I believe the collapse of ICE will be rapid once a critical point is reached.

I agree that there could be a rapid fall, but there are a number of significant challenges that would lead to a long tail, not least because any significant reduction in gasoline demand is likely significantly to lower the price of gasoline.

 

[FastEddieB]

…but there are a number of significant challenges that would lead to a long tail…

“Long tail” is exactly what I was envisioning.

Many “pedestrian“ vehicles will go first. But I’d expect that long tail to be supported by rarities and exotics and niche ICE vehicles kept for nostalgia’s sake - Ferraris and Lamborghinis and the like, but probably Miata’s and Corvettes and muscle cars as well.

 

[jerry33]

But I’d expect that long tail to be supported by rarities and exotics and niche ICE vehicles kept for nostalgia’s sake - Ferraris and Lamborghinis and the like, but probably Miata’s and Corvettes and muscle cars as well.

Yes, they'll be vintage and show cars. Almost no miles driven. The new exotics will be electric.

 

[Cobbler]

View attachment 949891

FFS, what the hell did he expect?

 

[gillfoto]

The front facia lifting with the CyberFrunk hood is gonna be handy....

In what way, larger bumper sticker or advertising billboard?

 

[SOULPEDL]

In what way, larger bumper sticker or advertising billboard?

Maybe to fit these.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh yeah. I have always carried tools, and sometimes parts if I suspected something specific might go awry.

Exactly. But others who don't do this (tire air is complicated group), might be less inclined to trust them past 100K miles for a long road trip. That may have been the point made earlier.

 

[UkNorthampton]

It may come as a surprise to some, but Ireland is in Europe. In every way. (So too is the UK of GB, which also may surprise some). Fantasy geography should be avoided.

When I looked recently at these UK-specific £38k model 3 offers there was a link to "contact Tesla sales for more info" and it was not clear where the cars actually were. I had initially thought they were ex-demo vehicles but scanning through the listings it seemed most likely to me on reflection that the cars were still on the car-carriers en route from China.

The UK economy is in a difficult place, and the UK is also a good market to do experimentation in. Also - as you rightly say - the model 3 is not such an easy sell in the UK as it is not a hatchback. If a model refresh that turns the 3 into a hatchback is about to be revealed, then swiftly cleaning out inventory in advance is sensible.

Shorthand, no need for snippiness. Many people (including EU fans like me) in many EU and European countries refer to the rest of Europe/EU as simply "Europe" or "EU". Ireland as a specific. I was concentrating on the most important info. End of as far as I'm concerned but disappointed.

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 950753

FFS, what the hell did he expect?

Wish I could short Ross's intelligence. Everyone in the community predicted this exact outcome.

Classic case of someone made some money with Apple and Tsla now thinks he is a genius.

 

[Singuy]

Someone did the route again. Car recognize sign too late and brake hard stopping in the middle of intersection. Even the city knows a human would not react fast enough just from seeing the stop sign, hence added 2 additional warnings. Fsdb either need to add this to the map data or start reading other markings like "stop" painted on the ground.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673052728308957184

 

[Maarten]

In many cases it will be an expensive plot to develop. Years of oil and gas spills in the ground forcing developers to do a large cleanup job before anything else can be built there.

Old oil should be legally obliged to reserve enough money from their profits, to be able to be forced to clean up their mess in the ground at their cost after closure.

 

[FastEddieB]

Yes, they'll be vintage and show cars. Almost no miles driven. The new exotics will be electric.

And I expect a roaring business in converting vintage cars to electric.

 

[Thumper]

Gtrplr1. You must be new to EVs though you’ve been here since 2017. Oh well, use Tesla.com “find us” or PlugShare. Either should cover your charging needs anywhere.

 

[Xepa777]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672572729592250368

FSD version 13 - "we've come to the realization that the neural net must understand driving rules instead of performing a command from a preset list of options. It's like AGI!"

FSD version 17 - "we've come to realize that you need to incorporate sound into FSD. In the real world, you hear scary stuff around you and that's what alerts you to avoid a drastic scenario many times!"

FSD version 30 - "we've come to realize that the cheapest and most energy efficient way to power the neural net is to connect it to your brain, so it blends the best of both machine and human input! Now we'll finally solve FSD."

Shout out to comma.ai which called it years ago for saying that Tesla would eventually do this.

 

[betstarship]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672572729592250368

FSD version 13 - "we've come to the realization that the neural net must understand driving rules instead of performing a command from a preset list of options. It's like AGI!"

FSD version 17 - "we've come to realize that you need to incorporate sound into FSD. In the real world, you hear scary stuff around you and that's what alerts you to avoid a drastic scenario many times!"

FSD version 30 - "we've come to realize that the cheapest and most energy efficient way to power the neural net is to connect it to your brain, so it blends the best of both machine and human input! Now we'll finally solve FSD."

Shout out to comma.ai which called it years ago for saying that Tesla would eventually do this.

To be fair, I think a large amount of us will be tapping into Neuralink to rent out SaaS-based pricing robots that allow us to travel and explore Mars, Encaledus, Europa, Titan, etc...by FSD version 30.

 

[EVMeister]

Action shot of Cybertruck bed cover closing up -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673051311598878720

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672572729592250368

FSD version 13 - "we've come to the realization that the neural net must understand driving rules instead of performing a command from a preset list of options. It's like AGI!"

Don't think you need to make an LLM and have it read the laws hehe. How many of you humanpilot drivers have actually read the rules for how to drive everywhere you drive?

Anyway I think the big black box model aka world model is mainly to remove feature engineering, like CNN removed features from feature based learning methods. It will improve performance/online compute but will not enable anything the current system cannot do. The downside is that it will cost tons of offline compute, that's why Tesla wants to 100x their compute in the next 2 years.

Later the neural network part will probably expand even more to eat up control.
View attachment 950793

I recommend to rewatch this old video: