Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

Nice to see that the media is recognizing that killing Tesla isn't a trivial undertaking. It seems like the only thing the "Tesla killers" are able to kill is themselves.

Which Tesla Killer Will Be Next to Go Bankrupt? — TheStreet

Lordstown Motors has just filed for bankruptcy, for lack of cash to finance its development. Other EV upstarts are in big trouble.

stocks.apple.com

 

[2daMoon]

Uh....

The best thing you can do for your TSLA investment is to drive a Tesla.

There is literally nothing you can compare it to in the ice world if you don't drive a spaceship everyday.

This is financial advice!

Yeah, believe me, I agree whole-heartedly.

That would be fine with me if I were still earning a paycheck. As things are, it would require me, the missus, two cats and a dog to live in the Tesla, should I make that choice at this time. We have tightened the purse strings to avoid selling chairs at these dirt-cheap prices. It seems wiser to put off the purchase, as I expect the chair price will go up.

I'll pull the trigger on the Tesla once the selling of one share will cover the monthly payment on the car. Despite being a cash car buyer for decades, I sure as H, E, double toothpicks won't be selling a lump of growing shares to cover the full purchase price. Which may also be financial advice.

I'm chomping at the bit to get into a Tesla as soon as is practical.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nice to see that the media is recognizing that killing Tesla isn't a trivial undertaking. It seems like the only thing the "Tesla killers" are able to kill is themselves.

Which Tesla Killer Will Be Next to Go Bankrupt? — TheStreet

Lordstown Motors has just filed for bankruptcy, for lack of cash to finance its development. Other EV upstarts are in big trouble.

stocks.apple.com

yeah...but they still had to throw "Tesla Killer" in their headlines ..oh wait...the writer is good ole Luc Olinga, who's vocab only consists of 2 words

 

[AndrewZ]

As of the time of this post, what's listed in inventory in AU is:
Model 3 - 6
Model Y - 17

No S/X

These numbers are likely no longer accurate, or less accurate and more difficult to interpret than they already were. Tesla recently (like in the last week) made changes to the way inventory is displayed on the website that has also messed with the inventory scrapers/trackers.

Why exactly the data are being obfuscated and seemingly made less transparent, we can only speculate.

 

[Unpilot]

Why exactly the data are being obfuscated and seemingly made less transparent, we can only speculate.

Here?....speculate?

Nah...

 

[UkNorthampton]

Updated as of 851CST
Q2 1161 short of Q1
If countries averages continue at June levels will end up 446 units short of Q1
All daily reporting countries last reported day above June average

Sweden and Spain have 2 days left
Norway and Denmark have tomorrow and continued reporting of todays results.
Netherlands has 3 days left

I can't find any decent data on Turkey. It's a new market - Tesla deliveries started on 8th May. By my (rough) reckoning, a maximum of 300 Teslas were sold there in May. June is a complete guess but is stated by one journalist as being higher. 10,000 ordered in less than a month from April when orders opened, Since then we've had May and June for orders. Whether "Bums in Seats" have led to even higher orders is conjecture, but I'd say yes. 9000 expected deliveries by end of 2023. 20 after-sales locations plus mobile service (timeline unclear).

2000 EV sales in May (all makes)
7500 Jan-May, so 5500 for 4 months ie 1375/month on average

Assuming May's higher figure of 2000 is 1375 for existing EV model deliveries plus Togg and Tesla
Turkish own-make Togg EV introduced in April, 306 delivered in May
Tesla Model Y on 8th May, max of 300 Teslas in 24 days - rough numbers

June guess - 1000? They're doubling number of staff. Few hundred at a port in Turkey in June -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671497044559556608

Sources:-

Turkey’s EV sales surge thanks to domestic production

Turkey's EV sales surged in the first five months, with a 326.64% increase compared to the previous year.Hybrid vehicles also saw significant growth, rising by nearly 60% in sales.The introduction of Turkey's first indigenous electric vehicle, the Togg T10X, contributed to the sales boost.

electricdrives.tv

Electric car sales rocket as Türkiye's EV drive gains pace

Sales of electric vehicles (EV) in Türkiye skyrocketed in the year through May, propelled by the launch of the country's first indigenous car and...

www.dailysabah.com

"Sales in the first five months of the year rose 60.5% year-over-year to 445,006 units, according to the ODMD.

Demand remains notably high as consumers continue to opt for cars they see as a tool to safeguard themselves from high inflation. Among others, easing supply chain-related availability problems has also led to increased sales since the beginning of the year."

Tesla Model Y’nin Türkiye satışı belli oldu: Beklenenden 10 kat fazla!

Tesla, Nisan ayının başında Türkiye pazarına resmi olarak giriş yapmıştı. Elektrikli Model Y ile piyasaya giren Tesla’nın aldığı sipariş sayısı belli oldu. Ayrıca teslimatların tarihi de netleşti.

www.donanimhaber.com

Rough translation via google, my emphasis in bold

According to the reports, Tesla Model Y received more than 10 thousand orders in less than a month after it arrived in Turkey. This number is said to have taken Tesla by surprise, as it is stated that the company is targeting sales of approximately 1000 units. Therefore, there are 10 times more sales than the target. Speaking of sales, those who ordered are eagerly waiting for their vehicles to be delivered. According to the announcement, more than 90 percent of the demand will be met by the end of the year.

The first deliveries will start as of the second week of May . As of June, deliveries will be accelerated. According to Özpeynirci, Tesla Turkey plans to more than double the number of personnel in order to organize the high demand. As we mentioned in our previous related news, Tesla initially chose Akasya AVM as the delivery point, but since the demand is high, a larger location has been determined on the Anatolian side.After-sales service at 20 points
How much did Tesla Model Y sell in Turkey? When are the deliveries?
The service , which was announced to be opened in Merter , will be commissioned in June . For after-sales support and services, after-sales service will be provided at 20 points in Turkey . Depending on the situation, mobile services or expert teams in Istanbul will be sent to customers.

 

[Nocturnal]

Brother works as a contractor for Exelon (10 million customers and the largest US utility). On their all hands they just announced an EV rebate plan for employees. $1500 for new EVs and $500 for used.

I always gave my electric utility clients a hard time when I didn't see parking lots full of EVs. Looks like they are starting to figure this out.

 

[EQC_]

Can you just summarize; is there a demand problem or is there not?

I have read from several sources on the internet that Tesla is still struggling with the same demand problem they've had for the past 10 years. While each year Tesla delivers more vehicles than the last, and generates profits sufficient to continually grow and build more factories and expand the business, every one of those years is a fluke, and the only buyers are cult-followers that have been duped. And that cult can't grow forever!

One day we will all see this truth: Tesla sales will eventually level off. Sure, it might be 10 or 20 more years of growth, but eventually we will all be dismayed to learn that neither Tesla's revenues, nor Tesla's stock price, can actually reach infiniti.

 

[dhanson865]

1 more for NACS

Polestar will adopt North American Charging Standard to enable access to Tesla Supercharger network in USA and Canada​

Polestar Global Media Newsroom

 

[AndrewZ]

Here?....speculate?

Nah...

I had noticed before the changes that the inventory scraping websites like EV-CPO were applying referral codes when you clicked on an inventory vehicle through their website, so Tesla might have made changes to combat that

And/or they're trying to make inventory more opaque because people were watching it very closely and using inventory trends to justify delaying purchase

And/or they're trying to make inventory more opaque because it was being used by stock market speculators etc (I think this is less likely unless the intent is to stop publishing quarterly P&D numbers)

 

[Krugerrand]

Why exactly the data are being obfuscated and seemingly made less transparent, we can only speculate.

I believe I can speculate with 99.9% accuracy.

 

[Krugerrand]

Clearly, you are not a mountain biker.

Umm, I own The Mountain. Why would I need to travel to another mountain to ride my bike?

I look forward to the day you get a job so you can buy a Tesla sooner.

 

[AndrewZ]

If anyone is interested in some insight @ what Tesla is doing underneath the hood in their website, Matt Jung was running the one often-used inventory tracker

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672384645156212736

It was speculated that inventory listings for one trim were potentially representing multiple vehicles of the same trim at one location, it looks like now VINs are being combined and one listing can represent one trim at multiple locations thus requiring further digging to split them out.

Makes me wonder if back in the day there was total transparency where every single individual vehicle was listed and that has been gradually scaled back over time.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'm not a fan, but probably worth watching what "finance youtubers/influencers" are saying - purely for consumer sentiment reasons as it might encourage orders or bring forward deliveries. Also, possibly some people (me) missed the revisions to Q1 GDP/prices.

Text for search:-

Farzad Mesbahi Retweeted
Meet Kevin @realMeetKevin

Holy sh*t! The numbers this morning were INSANE!

Personal savings JUMPS to 4.2% (disposable)
GDP Q1 revised UP to 2.0% vs 1.4% expected
GDP Q1 prices DOWN to 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
Jobless claims & continuing claims miss (slightly).

#RecessionCancelled

 

[KBF]

Not sure if folks here have come to this realization yet, but Tesla AGI (in the form of a large-language model) will allow Tesla Service to use fleet data to remotely PROBLEM SOLVE while repairing your car. Mechanics will not longer be paid for head & butt scratching time as they try to figure out what needs doing; the Service Workorder from the AGI will tell them what's wrong, and how to fix it. DOJO Power! THIS.IS.HUGE.

Here's just a taste of what I mean in this video:

Can ChatGPT Diagnose this Car? | Chevy Trax P0171, P1101, P0420

Recently read an article (I taught ChatGPT to teach me board games. Here's how I did it | Digital Trends) about using ChatGPT to teach complex board games (getting rules clarifications, etc). The author discovered the best way was to get a plugin that allowed you to interrogate a single pdf (aka only clean data), and he found it worked much better than vanilla ChatGPT. This is the only way to get reliable information - narrow source material, which Tesla can easily provide (eg service bulletins added to the source material, it's all instantly updated). It's a massive time saver, and easier for Tesla to implement with their service model.

Just another TSLA advantage.

 

[hobbes]

Spain offers tax breaks for EVs - electrive.com

The Spanish government is aiming to boost sales of electric cars with a tax break for private individuals. The Council of Ministers has approved a deduction of 15 per cent of income tax for the purchase of electric vehicles. This tax relief will apply until 31 December 2025. The maximum…

www.electrive.com

 

[SarahsDad]

This is big. Electrify America is a subsidiary of VW. So I'm guessing VW is next.

Volkswagen in talks with Tesla to adopt its charging standard

Volkswagen is in talks with Tesla to adopt its North American Charging Standard (NACS) technology, while the German automaker's charging network unit Electrify America has already agreed to use the system.

www.reuters.com

 

[Eugene Ash]

Recently read an article (I taught ChatGPT to teach me board games. Here's how I did it | Digital Trends) about using ChatGPT to teach complex board games (getting rules clarifications, etc). The author discovered the best way was to get a plugin that allowed you to interrogate a single pdf (aka only clean data), and he found it worked much better than vanilla ChatGPT. This is the only way to get reliable information - narrow source material, which Tesla can easily provide (eg service bulletins added to the source material, it's all instantly updated). It's a massive time saver, and easier for Tesla to implement with their service model.

Just another TSLA advantage.

GIGO is still at play. ChatGPT has architecture and guardrails that censor results as well as keep data private/not being used to teach the main model (thanks GDPR). Good documentation leads to good suggestions/outcomes, that's why ChatGPT can write meaningful code (hurray to OpenSource!). Luckily for me, I'm in a field, where documentation is terrible, and the number of specialists is in low.
Slightly off-topic observation:
1) Youtube is a goldmine for knowledge, even beyond mere linguistics, so don't discount Google yet
2) Tesla has the lead in reasoning over videos, though mostly in a specific domain (roads). Optimus will give more data. If Tesla builds the right toolset (which they're capable of, but priorities??) DOJO can become a fantastic business.

 

[2daMoon]

I look forward to the day you get a job so you can buy a Tesla sooner.

Without holding anywhere near your acumen for exhibiting grace and social propriety the prospect seems unlikely.

 

[cusetownusa]

Brother works as a contractor for Exelon (10 million customers and the largest US utility). On their all hands they just announced an EV rebate plan for employees. $1500 for new EVs and $500 for used.

I always gave my electric utility clients a hard time when I didn't see parking lots full of EVs. Looks like they are starting to figure this out.

Our local utility gives a $5,000 rebate to employees that purchase an EV. My neighbor bought a Tesla and took advantage of that recently (on top of the $7500 Fed rebate). Considering I am paying for that out of my utility bill, he still owes me a beer or 20+.