Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

Put a Supercharger at the top of the mountain.
Problem solved.

Not trying to be snippy at all. There are two very obvious solutions to the concern regarding range. Longer range or more stations. The actual solution will probably involve improvements to both.

Dan

You illustrate the point: it remains a problem today. Supercharging solves some problems, but not all.

Did you notice I made the point that having charging at the top doesn't help you in those cirumstances if the driving distance is > 50% nominal range?

The reality is that to truly replace ICE vehicles in many scenarios, we need both more range and more charging availability (and higher charging speeds).

To pretend that only one addresses the issues is ignoring reality.

 

[mongo]

And what if they're all taken when he is there?

That's easy, have the employees put out cones to block the spot before time frame when he arrives on the days he does the trip.
If he had chargers at all the stores, then he could call ahead only if needed back on previous usage.

 

[Todd Burch]

Shorts this morning:

“Better turn that MMD spigot on early!”

 

[brian45011]

Plenty of youtubbers got two roadsters.

Youtube Channels Now You Know (Zac and Jesse), Teslabjorn (Bjorn Nyland), LikeTesla (Kim), Whatsinside (Dan and Lincoln) , Marques Brownlee, Teslanomics (Ben Sullins) and maybe missing one or two.

Anybody have any insights about when and in what classification these obligations will appear in the Income Statement?

 

[lklundin]

Can anyone from Denmark confirm this? Is there some loophole that people use to avoid the 150% sales tax, such as importing "used" cars from Germany with 50 km on them?

Denmark has 200k+ passenger vehicle sales per year:

Denmark car sales data - carsalesbase.com​

$22k ICE vehicles is at the low end of the car price spectrum - the Model 3 SR+ should capture a big chunk of the sedan market, which should be beyond 50% in Denmark.

In Denmark a vehicle incurs a so called registration tax, the size of the tax depends on the vehicle's price.

Through 2019, all but 20% of that tax is waved for a BEV - and a deduction of 40k DKK (ca. 5k3 €) in the remaining tax is given.
Starting in 2020, all but 40% of the tax is waved for a BEV, and the deduction is increased to just over 10k €.

So no special deal on the cheaper Model 3, as far as I can read the official page:
Skat.dk: Betaling af og satser for registreringsafgift

 

[lklundin]

Can anyone from Denmark confirm this? Is there some loophole that people use to avoid the 150% sales tax, such as importing "used" cars from Germany with 50 km on them?

Denmark has 200k+ passenger vehicle sales per year:

Denmark car sales data - carsalesbase.com​

$22k ICE vehicles is at the low end of the car price spectrum - the Model 3 SR+ should capture a big chunk of the sedan market, which should be beyond 50% in Denmark.

In Denmark a vehicle incurs a so called registration tax, the size of the tax depends on the vehicle's price. The tax is quite substantial(*), with no loop holes for imported, used cars (except that options are often taxed as having a low value).

Through 2019, all but 20% of that tax is waved for a BEV - and a deduction of 40k DKK (ca. 5k3 €) on the remaining tax is given.
Starting in 2020, all but 40% of the tax is waved for a BEV. Through 2020 the deduction is increased to just over 10k €, after which is goes away

So as far as I can read the official page, no special deal on the cheap Model 3, but a very sweet deal on any Tesla:
Skat.dk: Betaling af og satser for registreringsafgift

(*): 2018 tax: 85% of pre-tax value up to 189k2 DKK (ca. 25k3 €), 150% of remaining pre-tax value. 2019 tax: 85% of pre-tax value up to 193k4 DKK (25k9 €), 150% of remaining pre-tax value.
PS. 25% VAT is added afterwards, I believe also to the tax..

 

[JBRR]

Can anyone from Denmark confirm this? Is there some loophole that people use to avoid the 150% sales tax, such as importing "used" cars from Germany with 50 km on them?

Denmark has 200k+ passenger vehicle sales per year:

Denmark car sales data - carsalesbase.com​

$22k ICE vehicles is at the low end of the car price spectrum - the Model 3 SR+ should capture a big chunk of the sedan market, which should be beyond 50% in Denmark.

There are no practical loopholes for getting around the 150% tax. Everyone pays that tax.

 

[Krugerrand]

I’ve been driving an EV for 7 years, and if the trip were just me I would have taken an S.

But no doubt this trip would have been a bigger pain taking an EV, even with sufficient chargers along the route.

It’s not about experience. I have done long trips in the S and have almost 200,000 electric miles now, yet that experience wouldn’t have made driving electric on this trip less time-consuming.

Charging still takes 30 minutes+ in reality for every few hours of driving.

I am a big proponent of EVs, but after living with one for 7 years now, we do the mission a disservice by pretending that just over 300 miles is enough.

Unfortunately, I think that’s just reality.

You do a disservice to not remember that the 3 can now charge up to twice as fast on V3 chargers so now your trip looks quite a bit different.

Things are not static. I’m sure range will increase, um... it already did with the LR RWD 3.

But again, people will change. People think there’s a magic number, but there isn’t because someone who’s determined to resist change will always find a way to move the goalposts. Fortunately, those people due just as frequently as the rest of us.

 

[scaesare]

You do a disservice to not remember that the 3 can now charge up to twice as fast on V3 chargers so now your trip looks quite a bit different.

Things are not static. I’m sure range will increase, um... it already did with the LR RWD 3.

But again, people will change. People think there’s a magic number, but there isn’t because someone who’s determined to resist change will always find a way to move the goalposts. Fortunately, those people due just as frequently as the rest of us.

I'd caution that while that's true for peak rates... and the curve does indeed look different, it's probably not twice as fast overall to 80%.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Completely disagree. A premium ICE vehicle (example Audi S7: +90.000 EUR) can have similar range and performance to a much cheaper model (Golf GTI Performance: 40.000 EUR).

I disagree with your disagreement. ICE vehicles don't come in standard range and long range variants. Clearly range is a differentiator with people putting a premium on having more range. That's why people would buy a 100D over a 75D - more range and higher performance. Otherwise the cars were identical.

 

[Krugerrand]

Telling a customer that insist on 500 miles of range you will not sell him a BEV he wants; keep driving the old diesel or buy a new diesel is ecological nonsense.

No it’s not. That customer is about to die and so is the OEM he thinks he’ll buy his next diesel vehicle from. We don’t care.

 

[KarenRei]

Let's try to come up with some realistic pricing and stats for after the new S/X release. Current pricing:

Model S 100D (335mi, 4,1s, 155mph): $85k
Model S P100D (315mi, 3,0s, 155mph): $99k
Model S P100DL (315mi, 2,4s, 155mph): $119k
Model X 100D (295mi, 4,7s, 155mph): $89,5k
Model X P100D (289mi, 3,5s, 155mph): $104k
Model X P100DL (289mi, 2,8s, 155mph): $124k

So, price-and-stat-wise, they'd need to slot in relative to these vehicles. Let's say that they'd discount existing models by $5-10k to move them (they might not, they might just price everything $5-10k higher, due to stimulated demand). I'll operate on the assumption that the packs remain 100 kWh, with extra range only from the new motor, and that the battery packs have relatively little extra available peak power output capability - although it's possible that this may be too pessimistic (just don't get your hopes up). Operating on these assumptions, we might then see:

Model S 100D (335mi, 4,1s, 155mph): $80k
Model S P100D (315mi, 3,0s, 155mph): $91,5k
Model S P100DL (315mi, 2,4s, 155mph): $109k
Model S2 100D (355mi, 3,9s, 160mph): $95k
Model S2 P100D (334mi, 2,8s, 165mph): $109k
Model S2 P100DL (334mi, 2,2s, 170mph): $129k
Model X 100D (295mi, 4,7s, 155mph): $84,5k
Model X P100D (289mi, 3,5s, 155mph): $96,5k
Model X P100DL (289mi, 2,8s, 155mph): $110k
Model X2 100D (313mi, 4,5s, 160mph): $99,5k
Model X2 P100D (306mi, 3,3s, 165mph): $114k
Model X2 P100DL (306mi, 2,6s, 170mph): $134k

The old variants would then disappear once inventory ran out, and then the new ones slowly decline in price over time (the rate of decline depending on how fast people are snatching them up - no need to stimulate demand faster than you can make the cars). Margins on the new variants would be monstrously high - cheaper to build, but sold at higher prices. Maybe 40-50%, seriously.

Does this look like balanced / realistic pricing? Can't have anything be a blowout compared to the others, and there's no point in offering pricing / stats that will stimulate demand faster than you can produce vehicles.

(Also, there comes the question of.... what are they going to do with the extra space at Fremont, once motor production - and possibly pack production - disappears? Hmm... New paint shop? )

 

[VValleyEV]

Not sure whether this was posted here already:

(Reuters) Exclusive: Apple in talks with potential suppliers of sensors for self-driving cars - sources

"SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc has held talks with at least four companies as possible suppliers for next-generation lidar sensors in self-driving cars, evaluating the companies’ technology while also still working on its own lidar unit, three people familiar with the discussions said."

"The moves provide fresh evidence of Apple’s renewed ambitions to enter the autonomous vehicle derby, an effort it calls Project Titan. The talks are focused on next-generation lidar, a sensor that provides a three-dimensional look at the road."

"Apple is seeking lidar units that would be smaller, cheaper and more easily mass produced than current technology, the three people said. The iPhone maker is setting a high bar with demands for a “revolutionary design,” one of the people familiar with the talks said. The people declined to name the companies Apple has approached."

"The sensor effort means Apple wants to develop the entire chain of hardware to guide autonomous vehicles and has joined automakers and investors in the race to find winning technologies"

"Current lidar systems, including units from Velodyne Inc mounted on Apple’s fleet of self-driving test vehicles, use laser light pulses to render precise images of the environment around the car. But the systems can cost $100,000 and use mechanical parts to sweep the laser scanners across the road."​

I.e. Apple's Project Titan is still pursuing the LIDAR dead-end.

So Tesla is still the only game in town with a good chance to mass-manufacture low cost FSD technologies.

I suspect at this point the best investment Apple could do is to buy Tesla and reunite all the ex Tesla employees with current Tesla employees.

I am still a bit surprised and puzzled that startup Rivian is including LIDAR:
Rivian R1T and R1S: Top 10 hidden features that make an electric off-road vehicle

The two LIDAR units are reported to be below the front headlights. Seems like a difficult spot to keep clear of debris, which I have read is a problem for LIDAR, and am puzzled how the expense of LIDAR will fit with their business plan and pricing model.

 

[Buddyroe]

You illustrate the point: it remains a problem today. Supercharging solves some problems, but not all.

Did you notice I made the point that having charging at the top doesn't help you in those cirumstances if the driving distance is > 50% nominal range?

The reality is that to truly replace ICE vehicles in many scenarios, we need both more range and more charging availability (and higher charging speeds).

To pretend that only one addresses the issues is ignoring reality.

I disagree. There is a point where enough range replaces the need for more chargers. Now is it achievable? I doubt it. But, if range were to reach 2500 miles, I doubt we'd need another single charger. If we just consider technology is we know it today, then yes, a ton more superchargers are needed.

I'll propose this question - given a choice, which would you prefer? 350 miles of range and superchargers as available as gas stations OR 1000 miles of range and the superchargers as they exist today. For me, I'd definitely take 1000 miles of range because it would pretty much eliminate ALL supercharger stops for me. And I think it would be the same choice for 99.999%. So, obviously, if I were an EV manufacturer, I would put a lot more emphasis on increasing range versus charge time (and charging locations). The longer the range, the fewer the superchargers needed (not including the urban chargers needed for the city folk with nowhere to charge at home).

 

[Don TLR]

OT

I’ve been driving an EV for 7 years, and if the trip were just me I would have taken an S.

But no doubt this trip would have been a bigger pain taking an EV, even with sufficient chargers along the route.

It’s not about experience. I have done long trips in the S and have almost 200,000 electric miles now, yet that experience wouldn’t have made driving electric on this trip less time-consuming.

Charging still takes 30 minutes+ in reality for every few hours of driving.

I am a big proponent of EVs, but after living with one for 7 years now, we do the mission a disservice by pretending that just over 300 miles is enough.

Unfortunately, I think that’s just reality.

The southwest has huge gaps of chargers with the 4 corners area being the worst. Not being able to drive where you want based on lack of range is a serious problem that yes I'll overlook to some point but when forced to use a different vehicle based on lack of charging it will still keep the uneducated away. I had to alter a route though Colorado just to make it and missed out on my preferred plan, but you have to accept that at this point in time.

Until as some have said 400+ with more chargers the mainstream will still stay away, public perception is they're only good for city driving and until that changes they're not buying by the droves. The public still hears only the downfalls. While sitting watching our rocket head toward the space station yesterday I was educating a fellow employee on charge times,, so these people aren't dummies, just too much FUD is all they know..

 

[Krugerrand]

I've seen far worse. A very long time ago employer took three years to straighten out a $25 billing error. At least fifty correcting invoices were made and hours over the phone. Probably cost $10K to fix the $25 error.

Yep. I’ve dealt with several companies that took dozens of phones calls and months to fix tiny errors. In fact, I’m always pleasantly surprised when a company fixes a mistake on the very first attempt.

People keep going on how communication is somehow exclusively a Tesla problem. No it’s not. People all the world over, for hundreds of generations have always absolutely sucked at effective communication. At its core, it’s a human being problem, not a Tesla problem.

 

[Buddyroe]

That's easy, have the employees put out cones to block the spot before time frame when he arrives on the days he does the trip.
If he had chargers at all the stores, then he could call ahead only if needed back on previous usage.

So now he has to spend $6k!

And I wonder how you or I would feel if we were on a trip and came to patronize this man's restaurant, mainly because he has a Tesla charger, and it was coned off? And to boot, I don't think Tesla is giving out chargers so business owners can block them off for their personal use.

 

[pnungesser]

Not silly, but realistic when considering wind, rain, snow and high or no speed limits plus heavy loads. For real world minimal anxiety 500 miles EPA would equate to around 300 miles dependable no-stop range. With a continuing expansion of charging choices that would work for 99%, but even then there will be use cases that will not suit EV.

It's not just about what range is "practical/needed". I've learned that my S90D is fine for my needs, and after three years, my wife has finally come around. BUT, the S/X represents Tesla's "flagship" models and from that perception and from a marketing perspective, they need to be head and shoulders above the competition, aka "Tesla Killers". Having a 400+ range vehicle available even if most buyers will realize that 330 or so is plenty, the 400+ range model will still attract many buyers/lookers and move the mission forward. When showing people my car, the first question is always about range, then charging time and charging convenience. I'm sure most of you have had similar experiences.

 

[Buddyroe]

Not everyone is sold on the 3 looking interior, I would push up my new car purchase if they update soon.



The southwest has huge gaps of chargers with the 4 corners area being the worst. Not being able to drive where you want based on lack of range is a serious problem that yes I'll overlook to some point but when forced to use a different vehicle based on lack of charging it will still keep the uneducated away. I had to alter a route though Colorado just to make it and missed out on my preferred plan, but you have to accept that at this point in time.

Until as some have said 400+ with more chargers the mainstream will still stay away, public perception is they're only good for city driving and until that changes they're not buying by the droves. The public still hears only the downfalls. While sitting watching our rocket head toward the space station yesterday I was educating a fellow employee on charge times,, so these people aren't dummies, just too much FUD is all they know..

So, is the problem with range and charge time? Or with FUD? Probably 75% FUD and 25% the limitations.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I disagree. There is a point where enough range replaces the need for more chargers. Now is it achievable? I doubt it. But, if range were to reach 2500 miles, I doubt we'd need another single charger. If we just consider technology is we know it today, then yes, a ton more superchargers are needed.

I'll propose this question - given a choice, which would you prefer? 350 miles of range and superchargers as available as gas stations OR 1000 miles of range and the superchargers as they exist today. For me, I'd definitely take 1000 miles of range because it would pretty much eliminate ALL supercharger stops for me. And I think it would be the same choice for 99.999%. So, obviously, if I were an EV manufacturer, I would put a lot more emphasis on increasing range versus charge time (and charging locations). The longer the range, the fewer the superchargers needed (not including the urban chargers needed for the city folk with nowhere to charge at home).

I'll take 300 miles of range and a supercharger every 100 miles in any direction, on any highway. Done

Dan