Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVDRVN]

I've seen far worse. A very long time ago employer took three years to straighten out a $25 billing error. At least fifty correcting invoices were made and hours over the phone. Probably cost $10K to fix the $25 error.

At this point it's past incompetence it's intentional. The same case gets closed by a manager with no communication and no resolution of course. Then I find an intelligent person that is surprised a the history and they work on it but then before it is resolved they are gone. Seems the capable people there leave after a while. Regardless it seems more and more like managers closing cases they choose not to honor and deal with. I'm giving them one more week to resolve this. I think the front line people have good intention and once it goes up the the glass ceiling it falls apart. Pretty disconcerting at this point and it completely explains the poor management and communication which is actually not a big issue to resolve. Once I resolve this one way or another I will post the outline of what happened. As a shareholder their management of this and other issues is not inspiring confidence.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

I think 400 miles range, is the optimal range level. It will dispel any range anxiety at that point and put EV's on par or ahead of any gas car.

I also think it is very attainable in the next few years with the tech improvements we are seeing to do so affordably too.

 

[KSilver2000]

Anyone know what time Monday’s autonomy event is?

Strange we’re not having a higher run-up into the event, and the markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

 

[electrichapp]

Any news on the SEC case? It's one risk factor for me that I want gone before investing more.
If no catalyst, most likely range-bound today and probably close between 270 and 272.5

 

[KarenRei]

Anyone know what time Monday’s autonomy event is?

Strange we’re not having a higher run-up into the event, and the markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

We're green on the same day as a sizeable downgrade. And we've been taking a lot of downgrades recently.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Anyone know what time Monday’s autonomy event is?

Strange we’re not having a higher run-up into the event, and the markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

I think people are hesitant to buy ahead of the Autonomy day on SEC resolution uncertainty and ahead of the likely unprofitable Q1 report.

 

[KarenRei]

Any news on the SEC case? It's one risk factor for me that I want gone before investing more.
If no catalyst, most likely range-bound today and probably close between 270 and 272.5

Filing deadline for the court-mandated SEC-Musk negotiations is today. Should be something before midnight, but most likely after hours.

SEC is not seeking Musk's removal in this case - only fines. There's only one scenario I can envision which would have a negative market reaction, which is that the current deal gets thrown out without replacement and it goes back to the $420 lawsuit scenario. Neither Musk nor the SEC want that, but it's within the realm of possibility.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I expected the stock to start with $268 when I checked it, not $272... Guess I've been trained to pessimism. Still expect it to at least MMD today.

Reminder: while there will surely be some trading on Monday before the FSD event starts, the biggest news that will probably unfold between market close today and market open on Monday is a filing documenting the results of the negotiations between the SEC and Musk.

My hope is "at least agreement on a number of issues, with a list of to-be-resolved issues that they want the judge to decide on". The optimal case would be a full agreement ready for the judge to approve, which inherently settles the current case. The worst case would be no common ground at all, so the judge will have to rule on the current case.

If Qualcomm and Apple can reach an agreement, then Tesla and the SEC surely can!

 

[bdy0627]

Anyone know what time Monday’s autonomy event is?

Strange we’re not having a higher run-up into the event, and the markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

I think so too. My guess why there has been no run up into the event is that it occurs well after the market opens on Monday, the Q1 ER, which is expected to be bad, is just 2 days later, and the market has very low expectations for Tesla with regards to FSD at this point.

 

[replicant]

No it’s not. That customer is about to die and so is the OEM he thinks he’ll buy his next diesel vehicle from. We don’t care.

That's so short-sighed.

I live in one of the most eco-friendly city in the world, I'm in my 30s and most of my friend have high purchasing power (they can afford Model 3s, no problem). But they don't. And the auto industry is pretty happy to sell them expensive ICEs. Of course Tesla and EV in general will win (that's why I've been investing all my money in Tesla since 2012) but Tesla sales are not booming here, even though each and every one knows they'll buy an EV in the future.

Why? Because people are misinformed and waiting for young people's death or ICE company bankruptcy is stupid. It's an information/education problem, not a timing problem.

Waiting does nothing but protect the status quo (which, in a nutshell is sell ICE and devastate the planet). You should definitely care.

 

[bdy0627]

Any news on the SEC case? It's one risk factor for me that I want gone before investing more.
If no catalyst, most likely range-bound today and probably close between 270 and 272.5

Max pain is $275. If we don't move much and volume is lowish this afternoon, that may be a substantial factor.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reminder to options traders:

The markets will be closed tomorrow, so this week's expiring options will effectively do so at the market close today.

Based on yesterday's close, Max Pain for today's expiring TSLA options is $275: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[Joe F]

My parents really want to switch to EV (currently car is a Lexus RX 450h) but they're too scared of having to wait for hours to (queue for and charge when driving their annual 550+ miles trip.

Why so much range anxiety? Because years ago, they heard from friends who have a Model S 90D that they once preferred to take an ICE for one 500+ miles trip, just because they had a new born and the wife wanted to the trip to be as short as possible. That was years ago but anecdote frighten them so much they are now waiting to hear dozen of positive feedback from other Tesla owners before committing to an EV.

2300 plus mile trip recently. Never a problem charging. No queue problem PA to FLA.

There was a queue for my wife at some of the rest areas to use the restroom though...

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Only a 550 mile trip?

They do know that Tesla shows them each super charger station and how many stalls are in use vs free right? There's no waiting since you know before you even arrive if stalls are free or not.

 

[mongo]

So now he has to spend $6k!

And I wonder how you or I would feel if we were on a trip and came to patronize this man's restaurant, mainly because he has a Tesla charger, and it was coned off? And to boot, I don't think Tesla is giving out chargers so business owners can block them off for their personal use.

It is not permanently blocked off. He is at any specific restaurant a small subset of a day on the days that he is actually visiting them. The time it would need to be blocked is equivalent to the time one car spends at the restaurant, so it is little different that someone getting there first.
Could just put a HPWC in at the middle restaurant for $500 + install...

 

[electrichapp]

highest volume call strike today is 272.5 and significant put volume at 270. so predicting 270-272.5 for max profits for the option writers /market makers

 

[scaesare]

I don't want to drag this out further - hence I didn't reply to your first post on the subject - but that you've now written two posts on the subject, so be it. What's your full cycle summer range (e.g. not "drove X miles and then extrapolated" - as close to ~100% to ~0% as possible), and what's your full-cycle winter range (same as before, no "extrapolated half the cycle"), under what conditions, and are you including any phantom drain in there?

There are a number of routes I regularly drive during warm weather and can average 275-285 kWh/mi.

During the cold spells those same routes can average 380-410 kWh/mi

 

[VValleyEV]

I have an MS with 335 mile range. There are some beautiful routes in SW USA along 2-lane roads that are not practical with my range without some very long stops at L2 chargers. Not necessary to get from point A to B becuase I could use a boring interestate highway instead, and unlikely to make economic sense populating with superchargers. I have been on lots of these with my Subaru Outback, which I chose parttly because of it’s range, and yet even came close to running out of gas once or twice. Outback has been traded up for the MS which suits most of my needs, but I do miss the 400+ mile range.

Full disclosure: I love my Tesla MS but have a deposit on a Rivian R1T to replace our Jeep, partly because of the 400+ mile range. Yah it won’t have the Tesla SC network, and yah I will look VERY closely at any Tesla P/U introduced, but I really want to replace our Jeep with something that performs even better off-road and does not burn gasoline, AND it has to have very good range. Besides, my wife loves pickups, and is still so-so on our MS, finds it too nerdy/techie. She does like the acceleration, though.

Please don’t run me out of town.

 

[ZachF]

I would say 335 miles of range would be sufficient for more like 99% of people.

Dan

Yes, but people don't buy $100k+ high-level Model S/Xs on need. Higher level S/Xs are meant to showcase what EVs can do.

 

[MP3Mike]

You do a disservice to not remember that the 3 can now charge up to twice as fast on V3 chargers so now your trip looks quite a bit different.

You do a disservice by saying that. There are essentially zero V3 Superchargers right now, and even for the couple that exist the firmware required to use them at V3 speeds hasn't been released to the public yet. So his trips still look exactly the same.

And Tesla said that weren't going to upgrade V2 sites to V3 sites, though Elon sort of contradicted that in the Model Y announcement. So at this point V3 Supercharging speeds are still somewhere out on the horizon and may not actually make any difference to people for years to come.