Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

Filing deadline for the court-mandated SEC-Musk negotiations is today. Should be something before midnight, but most likely after hours.

SEC is not seeking Musk's removal in this case - only fines. There's only one scenario I can envision which would have a negative market reaction, which is that the current deal gets thrown out without replacement and it goes back to the $420 lawsuit scenario. Neither Musk nor the SEC want that, but it's within the realm of possibility.

I'd have to disagree with your last sentence. It might be that Tesla doesn't want to litigate the original complaint. I wouldn't be so sure about Elon, though. IMO, he knows that deposing the SEC agents who did the "due diligence" for the filing of the complaint, would shine a spotlight on some pretty incriminating evidence wrt the SEC.

 

[Toolsmack]

Personal anecdote on Tesla Energy- a company I had talked to 3 months ago about installing solar had told me they had powerwalls on order but had no idea when they’d ever get them.

Got a call this AM that they met with Tesla and are getting 50 Powerwalls within the next month. They are charging $12,500 per powerwall to add to a system.

Company is in Charlotte, NC

I post this because in my opinion Tesla Energy revenue growth is one component that could push institutional re-evaluations of the stock price

 

[gene]

Personal anecdote on Tesla Energy- a company I had talked to 3 months ago about installing solar had told me they had powerwalls on order but had no idea when they’d ever get them.

Got a call this AM that they met with Tesla and are getting 50 Powerwalls within the next month. They are charging $12,500 per powerwall to add to a system.

Company is in Charlotte, NC

I post this because in my opinion Tesla Energy revenue growth is one component that could push institutional re-evaluations of the stock price

My 2 Powerwalls have been on order over a year. Here in California we have not only the federal 30% tax incentive but we also have the SGIP program. My net price on two power walls including install should be around $8k.

 

[pnungesser]

Only a 550 mile trip?

They do know that Tesla shows them each super charger station and how many stalls are in use vs free right? There's no waiting since you know before you even arrive if stalls are free or not.

On my trips, I don't have the options of skipping a charger because of a wait. There's no convenient alternative for people who don't live in CA on a few other major corridors. For me, when you need to charge, you need to charge.

 

[davecolene0606]

I hear those things are awfully loud!

duuuuhhhh... and I’ve heard that.... people have said...

they cause cancers

Fire Away!

 

[Nocturnal]

On my trips, I don't have the options of skipping a charger because of a wait. There's no convenient alternative for people who don't live in CA on a few other major corridors. For me, when you need to charge, you need to charge.

Outside of California, are waits even that common? Here in the Midwest I've NEVER had to wait for a supercharger spot. 90% of the time I'm the only guy there.

OT


I don't care to prove my point, but since you have plenty of 'Informative' flag, I feel need to clarify for people that may think this is import: you have no clue what you're talking about re people that buy car with intention to go to a track.

Firstly, most club events forbid lap timing. Events organized by clubs is where the mass market is. Exclusive events (for profit, by dealers, or sponsors like UnpluggedPerformance) with no insurance and plenty of track time, they are irrelevant, too few people to account for anything. Secondly, track rats participate in club events for the joy of driving and adrenaline, not for competition, and they maximize every minute they're allowed on the track, so no one in their right mind would leave after 5 laps in a session. Etc, etc...

So your whole notion of 'I can do few laps as quick as BMW M3' does not represent mindset of a person that would buy car for the track. This is my final post on the subject.

Clearly you do. You started a several page argument (complete with insults) because you are upset about how I used the word "comparable". There rest of your points are addressing things I never said, so you are basically arguing with a strawman. Get over it.

 

[scaesare]

I disagree. There is a point where enough range replaces the need for more chargers. Now is it achievable? I doubt it. But, if range were to reach 2500 miles, I doubt we'd need another single charger. If we just consider technology is we know it today, then yes, a ton more superchargers are needed.

I'll propose this question - given a choice, which would you prefer? 350 miles of range and superchargers as available as gas stations OR 1000 miles of range and the superchargers as they exist today. For me, I'd definitely take 1000 miles of range because it would pretty much eliminate ALL supercharger stops for me. And I think it would be the same choice for 99.999%. So, obviously, if I were an EV manufacturer, I would put a lot more emphasis on increasing range versus charge time (and charging locations). The longer the range, the fewer the superchargers needed (not including the urban chargers needed for the city folk with nowhere to charge at home).

Well, if we are removing the reasonable/practical constraints from the discussion then the needs certainly diminish in either side. If there were GigaChargers at every single parking space that could recharge in 5 seconds, then the need for range probably decreases substantially too. But neither that, nor 2500 mile packs are on the horizon. In this discussion the 400ish is what's being talked about.

I'll point out that even in your scenario, things get dicey... without enough superchargers, you aren't going to recharge your 1000 mile pack at level 2 charger overnight for your 900 mile drive for an overnighter. You still need adequate charging infrastructure.

 

[lklundin]

I am still a bit surprised and puzzled that startup Rivian is including LIDAR:
Rivian R1T and R1S: Top 10 hidden features that make an electric off-road vehicle

The two LIDAR units are reported to be below the front headlights. Seems like a difficult spot to keep clear of debris, which I have read is a problem for LIDAR, and am puzzled how the expense of LIDAR will fit with their business plan and pricing model.

I guess it is hard to match Elon Musk in both self-confidence and sense of cost-cutting, that LIDAR is not worth its cost.

 

[lklundin]

2300 plus mile trip recently. Never a problem charging. No queue problem PA to FLA.

There was a queue for my wife at some of the rest areas to use the restroom though...

See, that's where you miss out on the newest tech from the automotive geniuses in Germany, a diesel the emissions of which are neutralized via a tank of urine that every now and then has to be replenished...

PS. I may jest but I am not kidding,
Diesel exhaust fluid - Wikipedia

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, if we are removing the reasonable/practical constraints from the discussion then the needs certainly diminish in either side. If there were GigaChargers at every single parking space that could recharge in 5 seconds, then the need for range probably decreases substantially too. But neither that, nor 2500 mile packs are on the horizon. In this discussion the 400ish is what's being talked about.

I'll point out that even in your scenario, things get dicey... without enough superchargers, you aren't going to recharge your 1000 mile pack at level 2 charger overnight for your 900 mile drive for an overnighter. You still need adequate charging infrastructure.

400ish is probably a pretty good sweet spot. If you had 1k range, most of us would be stopping anyway during that time. 310 is ok in perfect weather, but at highway speeds and especially in the cold that can mean stopping more often than you want.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I suffer from strike anxiety, so I could never own an ICE.

Tesla owners in Portugal escape fuel shortage hell due to truck drivers' strike

 

[Navin]

Do we know if we are going to be getting some sort of legal update from the judge on the sec case regardless if there is a compromise between the parties or not?

 

[Big Earl]

I disagree. There is a point where enough range replaces the need for more chargers. Now is it achievable? I doubt it. But, if range were to reach 2500 miles, I doubt we'd need another single charger. If we just consider technology is we know it today, then yes, a ton more superchargers are needed.

I'll propose this question - given a choice, which would you prefer? 350 miles of range and superchargers as available as gas stations OR 1000 miles of range and the superchargers as they exist today. For me, I'd definitely take 1000 miles of range because it would pretty much eliminate ALL supercharger stops for me. And I think it would be the same choice for 99.999%. So, obviously, if I were an EV manufacturer, I would put a lot more emphasis on increasing range versus charge time (and charging locations). The longer the range, the fewer the superchargers needed (not including the urban chargers needed for the city folk with nowhere to charge at home).

I don't know about you, but I don't want to pay for or carry around an extra 2,000 pounds of battery weight to get 1,000 miles of range. It's a waste of resources and nearly triples the carbon footprint of the car production, all for an insane amount of range that will rarely get used. Battery supply is already limited, so tripling the number of cells per vehicle would significantly cut vehicle production. Combine the increased price, lower production numbers and increased carbon footprint - the result is EVs don't make sense.

The sweet spot, in my opinion, is about 400 miles of EPA rated range. That still provides a solid 200 miles (3 hours) of driving in the worst conditions. In normal driving conditions, long distance trips would have legs of 3+ hours between charging stops of about 20 minutes each.

 

[Cosmacelf]

One of the few battery announcements that looks commercially promising in the short term. Combine this with Maxwell's DBE process and voila.

RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE:
New Discovery Makes Fast-Charging, Better Performing Lithium-Ion Batteries Possible
/QUOTE]

Actually, this does look promising, but this will take years before battery cells are produced. This research paper didn't even make a single cell, all they did was characterize a new cathode material (with zero Cobalt, I might add. Hmmm, where have I seen that before?). How this particular cathode interacts with a particular electrolyte, for instance, hasn't been worked on yet.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I also wonder about cost. How much would titanium and vanadium cost at scale? Are these elements abundant enough for a few million vehicles per year?

 

[jerry33]

The sweet spot, in my opinion, is about 400 miles of EPA rated range. That still provides a solid 200 miles (3 hours) of driving in the worst conditions. In normal driving conditions, long distance trips would have legs of 3+ hours between charging stops of about 20 minutes each.

2.2 hours in Texas.

 

[DocZ]

Odd that the SEC outcome isn’t out yet. Hope they reached a positive settlement.

 

[replicant]

2300 plus mile trip recently. Never a problem charging. No queue problem PA to FLA.

There was a queue for my wife at some of the rest areas to use the restroom though...

That's what I hear from Tesla owner. It's just that non-owner don't know and are misinformed. Having a product that works great (and few very happy customers) isn't enough. Other people need to experience it somehow or have others told them repeatedly that their fear is unjustified.

 

[lklundin]

One of the few battery announcements that looks commercially promising in the short term. Combine this with Maxwell's DBE process and voila.

RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE:
New Discovery Makes Fast-Charging, Better Performing Lithium-Ion Batteries Possible

Speaking of MXWL, what is going on with the acquisition?

What's promising about this is not only the improved performance, but also that it comes by completely replacing the electrode's cobalt(oxide) with the much less problematic vanadium(disulfide).

The only thing that remains is the very big if, whether this promising technology is just that or if it actually makes it to mass production.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I guess it is hard to match Elon Musk in both self-confidence and sense of cost-cutting, that LIDAR is not worth its cost.

The approach Musk is taking vs the rest is a software first approach. You need really talented software/AI folks to be able to do this. Tesla on the cutting edge with this. You also need lots of data. Tesla is the only one that can really get the latter, due to their fleet size. See also:

Tasha Keeney on Twitter
Tasha Keeney, ARK Invest

"It seems increasingly clear that companies like Waymo who used to appear as clear tech leaders in #autonomy are having trouble, and part of their struggles could be their choice of sensor set and the types of machine learning they are choosing to use.

"Meanwhile there's been more evidence from startups like Wayve that base maps and LiDAR may not be necessary. On top of this, no one seems to be catching up to Tesla's data advantage anytime soon."