Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Happy to be proven wrong of course.

Somehow I don't think you would be happy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We don’t know if there was any production downtime in July for Shanghai?

The number for China local/exports seems rather low (lower than first month of Q1 and Q2). Yes I know there could be anywhere from 5-10k cars in transit to docks/at docks/on the factory lot that weren’t counted.

 

[MartinAustin]

I agree if the Shanghai Highland Production start tweet is right we should see an announcement within a month. Photos without disguise will leak sooner. As well as economy of production through large cast structures, Highland might see a further aero optimization, eking out perhaps a 5 percent improvement, perhaps a little more. It’d be very unlike Tesla not to aim for this. That might show up in either extended range or a slightly smaller battery pack capacity, further reducing cost.

The steps:
1) drain all inventory down to nothing
2) publish a large delivery delay on new orders
3) stop/change the factory/restart
4) announce/reveal

5) when old inventory is eliminated or down to manageable size, re-adjust published delivery time

I don't think #1 will be a problem if people see a 6-month wait on deliveries. There are people who need a car ASAP. There are people who want to switch to BEV ASAP to start saving on running costs... they're not going to keep driving petrol cars until a Highland order arrives.

There will eventually be a small number of brand-new, pre-Highland cars still to sell, in a lot of markets; Tesla will discount them, but it won't hurt too much.

 

[EQC_]

...
I bet a lot of model 3 buyers would be quite happy with less acceleration, and a slower max charge rate, maybe even a smaller screen, if it shaved a noticeable amount off the price. ...

I know Tesla's options and accessories aren't sold at cost/zero profit...but the "smaller screen size" to save money got me chuckling. LCD monitors are cheap at typical consumer sizes. I'd bet it would actually cost Tesla more per panel to offer a 12" screen or something like that instead of just using 15" screens in all 3/Y's (even ignoring the cost of re-engineering the housing and possibly the software).

It reminds me of one of our F-150 trucks at work -- I swear, it has a roughly 3" screen for the back-up camera. Comically small, and almost useless for many folks without the best eyesight. It's definitely smaller than the screen on my not-new smart phone. I would be willing to bet that 3" screen actually cost Ford more than the 5-8" screens on the higher-optioned models, just because 3" is such an uncommon screen size. But, technically, having that 3" screen means that they can charge a few thousand dollars extra for the 6" screen (and other add-ons) for the higher option package.

I don't think Tesla would go this way...and I hope they don't as it just feels like needless complication to manufacturing and not actually consumer-friendly.

But, your initial suggestions -- perhaps a lower performance drive train, and maybe even smaller wheels with tall-sidewall tires -- would truly offer lower cost and better value to customers, and expand Tesla's market. I'd see that as good business.

[[Side note: Low profile tires are one of my pet peeves, and I wish Tesla had a factory option for meatier tires on smaller wheels. Every manufacturer pushes that way, even on economy cars, but it just seems to result in higher-priced tires that wear out faster, are more prone to damage, and generally reduce efficiency too. For most people, commuting to work and hauling kids around, there is no performance advantage to higher-speed rated, low-profile tires on big wheels...so it's really just an expenseive appearance option that costs more up front and also increases ongoing/maintenance costs.]]

 

[MartinAustin]

Reuters published an article about a proposed class action lawsuit in California over range of Tesla cars. No author named. CNBC picked it up. It's so dumb! Are all gasoline car manufacturers quaking in their boots at the prospect of the same lawsuits? It's going to boil down to this: if you drive your car like it is being tested by the EPA - slowly and gently, dry conditions, level ground etc. etc. - you will get the range figure. If you drive it the way we normally drive cars, or even faster, in rain, or up a hill... you will get less range. Also, water is wet.

However the end fate of this proposed lawsuit will get no media coverage

 

[Buckminster]

All the influencers have been against buying UBER. I agree, however, I'm a little surprised. TSLA would lose some value but it would reduce the risk of being able to scale the robotaxi fleet into a huge customer base to zero. It is also a guaranteed source of demand.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686780295394267136

 

[GOVA]

Gary Black. Counting days until those 2 words disappear from this forum as many others have.

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Tesla Energy and utility scale projects Tesla backup switch
Investor Engineering Discussions LK-99
Project Highland (Investor impact etc.) Building old and new on the same line?
FSD V12 (end to end AI) Beta in training?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Over time, it is almost a guarantee that history will prove you wrong because the Stephenson indicator is linear while the stock market is exponential in nature. Even our covid incentive bubble-fueled period will look tiny fifty years from now.

This is why I like this forum so much. There are people a lot smarter than I posting. After reading the above post from @JusRelax I thought his statement did not apply during periods of euphoria. So I plotted the trend line during TSLA's incredible run-up of 2013-2014 which still feels like yesterday.

I'm thinking no way can this trend line be maintained over the long term. It took six years, however quite to my surprise the 2013-2014 Price Run-up Trend line is completely eclipsed by today's TSLA share price. Interesting that the $102 low of January 2023 marked the bump off the 2013-2014 trend line. So my last post was wrong. The Stephenson Indicator will become the new 2013-2014 low. I'm not expect this tomorrow or even this year or next, but years from now I will look back and again be equally surprised at TSLA's valuation.

Now I'm going to sit back, jusrelax and enjoy the ride.

 

[navguy12]

You do realize that Elon says that about every new version, right? Somehow, all these mind-blowing versions are about the same as the previous version: two steps forward and 1.8 steps back. Usually better, but not much. You have to just ignore what he says or you'll be very unhappy with the actual progress of FSD.

Me, I've bought it three times now, and I'll probably buy it again on the Cybertruck (if they really locked in the price like they said), but there's no way I'd spend $15K on the system today. Maybe one day, if it gets much, much better, it will be worth what I paid for it. All it would take is it performing like Elon said it would in 2018.

I said it before and will say it again, when “they have it“, the update notes will be a single sentence stating, “Tesla assumes all liabilities while FSD is in use”.

If the attached update notes continue to have dozens of details of improvements, we will know they still don’t “have it”.

 

[Knightshade]

All the influencers have been against buying UBER. I agree, however, I'm a little surprised. TSLA would lose some value but it would reduce the risk of being able to scale the robotaxi fleet into a huge customer base to zero. It is also a guaranteed source of demand.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686780295394267136

The risk of not being able to scale a generalized RT fleet with working generalized FSD is already zero.

Teslas problem isn't a lack of cars, it's a lack of a working driverless FSD system.

 

[NicoV]

Expecting more than that means you would have to justify further earnings growth, like surprise FSD contributions or ASPs to stop plummeting and start increasing again.

Or margins going up again. So far no lower prices in Q3. Zack Kirkhorn said the effect of lower raw material costs would only be realized in H2 23, so compared to Q2 we’re probably get higher margins in Q3 because of lower raw material cost. Idem Q4, but probably also the effect of higher margins due to higher sales volume.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Now that we’re getting the monthly Europe sales data, it’s pretty easy to understand why Norway underperformed in July compared to last quarter and it still slow. Quite a few European countries showing best 1st quarter of the month ever. Norway simply didn’t receive hardly any production from Berlin for the month of July

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I said it before and will say it again, when “they have it“, the update notes will be a single sentence stating, “Tesla assumes all liabilities while FSD is in use”.

If the attached update notes continue to have dozens of details of improvements, we will know they still don’t “have it”.

No it won't. It'll have legalese defining terms, with multiple ways in which passengers must behave appropriately.

 

[UkNorthampton]

And Denmark is connected to Sweden and Norway with lots of hydro and nuclear power. So this is a giant step

Just for Europe/Africa (plenty more Australia/Singapore etc).

UK<>Denmark link is called Viking, 1.4 GW and bi-directional. Another planned for Morocco to UK (3.6GW rising to 6GW by 2030). More for Greece-Israel-Cyprus-Egypt (2+3 GW).

And first wind turbine for Dogger Bank (shallow sea). At the end of the 3 phases of Dogger Bank, it will produce up to 3.6GW (6 million homes) & will be the size of Greater London (but wetter, more like Manchester).

It will take a while for these to ALL come on-stream, but they are relatively fast and are in parallel, operational piece by piece with few dependencies.

Renewables based over a large geographic area linked by many connections will be less intermittent. Even so, having huge amounts of (Tesla) storage will help.

New factories are being built for transmission lines (eg Scotland).

Tesla Energy can't scale fast enough in my opinion. No doubt there's more detailed info by @petit_bateau & others in other threads, but I just wanted to reinforce the opportunity for Tesla in this investment thread.

As a last comment, Elon Musk has recognised that there will be shortages of key electricity equipment. He/Tesla might have another startup/product line to help High-Voltage Direct Current transmission at a lower cost or faster deployment speed. Just a wild guess.

 

[navguy12]

No it won't. It'll have legalese defining terms, with multiple ways in which passengers must behave appropriately.

I think you understand the point I’m making. You’ll get one page of legalese as you say, but that’s all it’ll be.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Reuters published an article about a proposed class action lawsuit in California over range of Tesla cars. No author named. CNBC picked it up. It's so dumb! Are all gasoline car manufacturers quaking in their boots at the prospect of the same lawsuits? It's going to boil down to this: if you drive your car like it is being tested by the EPA - slowly and gently, dry conditions, level ground etc. etc. - you will get the range figure. If you drive it the way we normally drive cars, or even faster, in rain, or up a hill... you will get less range. Also, water is wet.

However the end fate of this proposed lawsuit will get no media coverage

Actually, yes. EPA had to change its methodology and automakers had to be more honest in their self testing because so many were not getting the Maroney mpg.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We don’t know if there was any production downtime in July for Shanghai?

Sure we do. Wu Wa had to stop his drone overflights because they erected a GPS jammer over the factory airspace.

Further, Jason Yang has posted videos recently of a car with camoflauge covers in the screened-off pen near the Giga Shanghai R&D Centre.

These are as many, or more, of the same sort of clues we have for Project Highland in Fremont.

Cheers!

 

[MartinAustin]

Actually, yes. EPA had to change its methodology and automakers had to be more honest in their self testing because so many were not getting the Maroney mpg.

I agree the EPA test should have more realistic driving patterns. (resulting in a fall in range for all cars, BEV+ICE)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I said it before and will say it again, when “they have it“, the update notes will be a single sentence stating, “Tesla assumes all liabilities while FSD is in use”.

I don't see this happening for current production cars with paid FSD. For the ones with a physical connection between the steering wheel and the steering rack, the driver (or any sufficiently determined occupant of the vehicle) will always be able to override FSD. The only thing it can do is give up control.

No way “Tesla assumes all liabilities while FSD is in use”, regardless of circumstances, for the existing fleet. That's where the 3/Y interior camera will help, but there are also a non-trival number of refreshed S/X cars that DON'T have that feature.

TL;dr robotaxi's won't have a steering wheel, and Model 2/Z likely uses "drive-by-wire":

• FSD computer software can override driver imputs in an emergency
• Right-hand drive countries can be easily supplied from the same factory as LHD
• a stolen car can drive itself home (or to the Police Station)

Cheers to the Robots!