Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

The hype about Model 3 Highland is getting extreme, I prefer to have lower expectations, and be pleasantly surprised.

But hypothetically if it was true, what would could Tesla do with excess inventory of the prior model?

They could start a rental company providing loaners for cars getting repairs / service, perhaps using those cars as Robotaxis, or in a more general rental program at a future date.

Rental seems like a better option than hefty discounts to me. I don't know how the accounting would pan out, but it terms of getting better value from the manufactured car, rental has some appeal.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694932689407607138

Elon playing 4D chess by building up inventory in previous quarters...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The hype about Model 3 Highland is getting extreme, I prefer to have lower expectations, and be pleasantly surprised.

But hypothetically if it was true, what would could Tesla do with excess inventory of the prior model?

They could start a rental company providing loaners for cars getting repairs / service, perhaps using those cars as Robotaxis, or in a more general rental program at a future date.

Rental seems like a better option than hefty discounts to me. I don't know how the accounting would pan out, but it terms of getting better value from the manufactured car, rental has some appeal.

Rent it, drive it home and if you like it, buy it online (in California)!

The main thing is rental is a way they make some money from stock, while solving a substantial collision center problem.

But if they have legitimate collision rental, I also wouldn't be surprised if they used rental as a way to drive sales and work around some of the regulations.

 

[Max Plaid]

RIP GM

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694855523806425207

View attachment 967996

Aha, so the new legacy strategy is to pay their workers so much that they lure all the talent away from Tesla, with the added bonus that will spike inflation and the FEDiots will be forced to hike rates up to 10%, which will both destroy Tesla's stock price and force Tesla to sell at negative margins, depleting their cash reserves and bankwupting the company

Damn that Mary is smarter than we give her credit for!





/s

 

[Artful Dodger]

Aha, so the new legacy strategy is to pay their workers so much that they lure all the talent away from Tesla

Meanwhile, Tesla is preparing to make it's own workers... literal money-making machines.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694971374216085748

V12 livestream Tomorrow around 4pm PT

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694971374216085748

V12 livestream Tomorrow around 4pm PT

I know I shouldn't get too excited about this, but I think it's a big step.

If Elon live streams in real rush hour traffic and the car does something horrible it could have a profound effect on the public perception of FSD.

Elon knows this. He must have a lot of confidence in version 12.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Well, here are the numbers to back up many members' assertion that TSLA is manipulated. According to Nasdaq reporting, on a scale from 1 (perfect correlation to the market) to -1 (reverse correlation), TSLA is -0.69 (haha):

Tesla has never been a stock that moves in sync with the rest of the market. That is something that is measured by a stock’s correlation coefficient, a number that ranges from -1.0 to +1.0 where +1.0 indicates perfect correlation with the overall market and -1.0, perfect negative correlation, meaning that the stock goes up when the market goes down. TSLA’s correlation coefficient is -0.69, suggesting that generalized economic and market conditions have little or no bearing on the stock’s movement and price.

Also of note, Nasdaq predicts we will eventually hit our ATH. Eventually. And "it could be quite soon."

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-tesla-tsla-regain-its-highs-if-so-when

 

[2daMoon]

Also of note, Nasdaq predicts we will eventually hit our ATH. Eventually. And "it could be quite soon."

We'll only know for sure should William Tell us.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I know I shouldn't get too excited about this, but I think it's a big step.

If Elon live streams in real rush hour traffic and the car does something horrible it could have a profound effect on the public perception of FSD.

Elon knows this. He must have a lot of confidence in version 12.

I don't think it helps/hurts FSD either way. If it's great, haters will say it's faked or pre-mapped like the 2016 video, even if it's clearly not and people who love FSD will be happy. If it does terrible things, haters will hate, others will defend it as an edge case. The O'Dowd videos didn't change the perception of FSD, even with running stop signs. It takes a lot more than a video to change opinions.

 

[scaesare]

I'm the only one seeing this? It's still missing a piece of trim on the whole bottom, so the floor to the bottom of the pack is way thicker than a single cell pack requires

The floor is also level with the door sill, vs other Teslas in which there is a lip there

It confirms because from a engineering point of view there is no reason to make the floor thicker for nothing. If they could make thinner they would, since the whole truck height would be reduced, meaning less aero drag and less cells required in the first place

Cybertruck

View attachment 967917

Model 3

View attachment 967918

To be clear, I'm not stating I'm convinced the CT only has a single layer pack.

I'm just saying I don't think the floor is significantly higher than normal for such a vehicle.

I stand by my earlier comment that the door sill is above the floor height. I don't think you are correct in saying the floor is level with it. Look at the seat platform framework. Despite it's being set back from the door sill by some distance the bottom of it is still obscured from view. If the floor were level with the top of the door sill, we'd see it all, down to where it touches the floor.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon isn't wrong.

My model 3 LR RWD 5 years ago was 51k after a color upgrade

Today I just bought a Model Y for 51k with 2 extra seats, 1 extra motor, 200 more HP, 30mi extra range, matrix headlights, power trunk, HW4, double pane windows, lithium 12v battery and ryzen MCU. But I'm sure there's a person out there somewhere crying about no home link, USS, and passenger lumber support....

5 years ago Tesla had only just started properly automated Model 3 production, after having screwed up its initial attempts at production automation. It also didn't have any significant competition so could sell a much less well equipped vehicles at higher prices. 51k now gets you a bunch of long-range AWD crossover BEVs.

Would you like an AWD Ioniq 5 for $46k? It has ventilated seats, driver and passenger lumbar support, a Homelink mirror, CarPlay/Android Auto, parking distance warnings/collision assist, rain-sensing wipers and V2L. However, according to one owner who posts on this site, it is missing Tesla's phantom braking feature.

5 years is a long time in vehicle development.

 

[GhostSkater]

Pretty neat, simple and intuitive screen, zero buttons or things to break and comparing with other CCS chargers, how quickly the handshake is and how fast it starts charging, I’ve seen over a minute in some other chargers

https://x.com/evaeofficial/status/1695015645635625044?s=46&t=GqbuQg6Xp2KgOxhainBMnw

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695055214435614946

Highland. One week. Friday.

Maybe...

 

[Zero CO2]

The hype about Model 3 Highland is getting extreme, I prefer to have lower expectations, and be pleasantly surprised.

But hypothetically if it was true, what would could Tesla do with excess inventory of the prior model?

They could start a rental company providing loaners for cars getting repairs / service, perhaps using those cars as Robotaxis, or in a more general rental program at a future date.

Rental seems like a better option than hefty discounts to me. I don't know how the accounting would pan out, but it terms of getting better value from the manufactured car, rental has some appeal.

i suspect Model 3 Highland Hype is only in our Tesla echo chamber ... if you own a 2015 Toyota Camry today and want/need a new car to replace it the current Model 3 is still like stepping into a time machine ... not sure why we think Model 3 Highland will be priced lower or equal to current M3 trims ... Model S/X recent upgrades raised the price significantly on those models initially ...

 

[Mengy]

Also of note, Nasdaq predicts we will eventually hit our ATH. Eventually. And "it could be quite soon."

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-tesla-tsla-regain-its-highs-if-so-when

We could be back over $415 per share quite soon. It could possibly happen in two weeks! Or it could take two years.

"Could" is a very open ended word...

 

[lascavarian]

We'll only know for sure should William Tell us.

And just who would make that Overture

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

I was surprised to find out that not only is Tesla's current operating margin lower than some other auto OEMs, but so are their gross margins.

Toyota has a gross margin just under 20%.

So it seems on the surface that Tesla is just like any other OEM in terms of cost to build.

However that is with EV costs while Toyota and others are primarily ICE / hybrids. I could imagine their costs and gross margins would be surpressed as they transition to more EVs, so it's not an apples to apples comparison. But I fear currently it doesn't make sense to proclaim Tesla has a superior cost structure.

Even after all the price cuts and flat earnings, if Tesla is able to keep current operating margins and grow revenues ~ 50% YoY in the future, this will allow for a high PE multiple like 50-80 even as earnings go higher.

So 2023 is a wash, EPS might be in mid threes, like $3.6. But what can 2024 look like? I can see $1 additional contribution from Energy growth. I would also assume that Model 3 revamp should improve ASP and reduce COGs. Could this, and Cybertrack ramped, contribute at least $0.5 in EPS in 2024? I would think that's a reasonable bet.

If so, TSLA should be able to get over $5 in EPS in 2024 with good growth trajectory. At a PE ratio of 70, I think we might be able to reach a stable price of $350 maybe in a year from now.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Pretty neat, simple and intuitive screen, zero buttons or things to break and comparing with other CCS chargers, how quickly the handshake is and how fast it starts charging, I’ve seen over a minute in some other chargers

https://x.com/evaeofficial/status/1695015645635625044?s=46&t=GqbuQg6Xp2KgOxhainBMnw

Cheaper to make, less to break. It's the Tesla way.

Shame about that plug.

Having a CCS1 car, it wasn't until I used the Brewster, NY Magic Dock that I _really_ appreciated the size difference with NACS. Thank NEVI the industry will shift in the USA.

I think it's kind of interesting how much bigger the V4 pedestals are, given that the screen is tiny. I have to wonder why. Are they just matching the typical height of other chargers for visibility?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Cheaper to make, less to break. It's the Tesla way.

Shame about that plug.

Having a CCS1 car, it wasn't until I used the Brewster, NY Magic Dock that I _really_ appreciated the size difference with NACS. Thank NEVI the industry will shift in the USA.

I think it's kind of interesting how much bigger the V4 pedestals are, given that the screen is tiny. I have to wonder why. Are they just matching the typical height of other chargers for visibility?

Someone posted an interior shot of a V4 supercharger pedestal. It is crammed full of stuff. Remember that the cables are liquid cooled, so there’s equipment for that in the pedestal. You need essentially a compressor/chiller/radiator system within the pedestal to remove the cable heat when charging at 250 kW.