Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SebastianR]

TSLA is great entertainment value these days. But to be honest I expected even more volatility and more short attacks before this Friday.

Is the playbook now to prevent 350 and attack hard on Friday to end below 320? Or is 320 given up and 360 the number that shall not fall?

How did options/max pain move lately?

 

[EVMeister]

How so? I'm seeing it down $1.00.

But it went up to ~$349 just before that, did it not?

 

[Opus BC fan]

How so? I'm seeing it down $1.00.

Up almost 3 then down 1 now. Usually, the volatility settles down after hours.

 

[3Victoria]

Agree.

I believe that the stories describes have happened and they are not good no doubt. Nevertheless we should put issues into perspective and unfortunately many companies have this kind of problems.

I think they are making these videos because they don't have anything else to talk about. Her we have a blogger blogging about another blogger and padding it with fluff because its not really a huge issue.

One will always find wonderful stories and terrible stories. Service can always improve, end of story.

 

[Huskyf]

I think it's the news about criminal charges US to Huawai 5 minutes lates $TSLA go down.

 

[mongo]

This is what makes sense to me. Stationary applications (e.g. Powerwall) don't need the high gravimetric/volumetric energy density that mobile applications (e.g. EVs) need.

Powerwall is already set up for 2170s so going to 18650s would drop capacity. Powerpack would also lose capacity, but that can be compensated for in numbers of units. Megapack (likely) has more flexibility in terms of cell packaging (if it was designed in).

Maybe Boring will need a lot of pods, it won't care (much) about which cells get used.

The far out there approach would be producing ~200k 18650 3SR packs a year, with the rest 2170, but then you get into "which is better" wars along with complexity issues (vehicle level certification of each type).
Unless it was the GF3 version low cost 3s running on 18650s... Cuts cell shipping costs and commonizes US production to 2170.

 

[Todd Burch]

Powerwall is already set up for 2170s so going to 18650s would drop capacity. Powerpack would also lose capacity, but that can be compensated for in numbers of units. Megapack (likely) has more flexibility in terms of cell packaging (if it was designed in).

Sure, it would likely require packaging. But one would probably need detailed inside knowledge to do a cost-benefit analysis of switching so that the EV lineup's range could be boosted. It would be a complex analysis (weighing engineering redesign, retooling, customer demand changes with a new P120, etc...)

 

[X Fan]

This is a serious shot across Tesla's bow and will probably have a negative effect on company valuation and stock price. Essentially, it's FUD that rings true, even among Tesla loyalists.
It seems to me the root of the problem is this: Tesla is, culturally, a Silicon Valley company. Some of that's a plus. Iterative, over-the-air fixes are really great, whether it's a frozen laptop or an unresponsive Model 3. But the attitude of "ship now, fix later" was always going to bite Tesla, and it looks (from these videos from ardent Tesla fans) that it has.
So if you are OK with how your hardware and software problems are dealt with today by "traditional" hardware/software companies, you're likely OK with how Tesla deals with missed appointments, blown deadlines, organizational confusion and mysteriously unresolved "issues". If, on the other hand, you're like virtually everyone else on the planet and hate calling technical support to solve a hardware/software problem, you might well think twice about buying a Tesla vehicle.
As Tesla's founder said a long time ago, Software's easy. Cars are hard.
He was right.
Robin

Perhaps the view that cost containment wins out since product is so good?

And, it’s not just a Silicon Valley problem. I spent 2 hrs and then 75 minutes in the last week on hold waiting to change a few Qantas flights.

 

[mongo]

Sure, it would likely require packaging. But one would probably need detailed inside knowledge to do a cost-benefit analysis of switching so that the EV lineup's range could be boosted. It would be a complex analysis (weighing engineering redesign, retooling, customer demand changes with a new P120, etc...)

Sure, I agree with all that.
I'm saying it is much easier to make that change on an industrial version that is already configured as multiple modules internally and can offset the unit capacity loss with more units. Dropping a homeowner's single powerwall capacity X% is a bigger impact than adding X% more powerpacks to a site. Each internal powerpack module is self regulating, so you could even get fancy and have only a portion of the modules be 18650 so the overall capacity loss is a fraction of that X%. That gives total flexibility in terms of how many 18650 vs 2170 they want to use.

 

[avoigt]

More good news from Germany. I said it before and say it again: the Model 3 will have a crazy demand in Germany once people experience it.

Boersenmillionaer.de‏ @BM_Premium_BB
1/ #tesla #model3 is selling about 35 vehicles a day in germany! bill numbers will be above 3000 likely this friday! model3 bill number was about 2850 this monday and is now above 2945! source: own research/bill numbers provided by different customers I know.

1:44 PM - 16 Jan 2019

18m18 minutes ago
2./ with 3000 model3 sold (not delivered) this week in germany, tesla sold ~60% more vehicles in about 3 weeks (end of dec.2018-18. january 2019) than in THE WHOLE YEAR 2018. this milestone with one car only=model3! source 2018: https://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publikationen/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/FZ/2018_monatlich/FZ11/fz11_2018_12_xlsx.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 …

18m18 minutes ago
3./ if this run rate will continue and increase, tesla will sell way more than 20k model3 which auto expert "Dudenhöffer" forecasted: https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/auto/elektroautos-2019-wird-das-jahr-des-tesla-danach-kommt-die-wende/23756178.html … .

18m18 minutes ago
4./ we are only talking about the high end model3 versions currently available in europe. no demand, @markbspiegel ? @vincent13031925 @nextmove_de @ValueAnalyst1 @gwestr @GerberKawasaki @TilmanWinkler @ElectrekCo @WPipperger @auto_schmidt
Boersenmillionaer.de on Twitter


Don't get confused about loyalty to German brands. Most Germans are really annoyed and angry against the OEMs. If they can make a environmental and political statement and get a much better car people will just do it.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Since it is after hours I'll chime in with my own anecdotal evidence since it's from today:

Had an issue a mobile technician came up and replaced a part today, took him about half an hour. I live over an hour away from a service center so they proactively shifted me to mobile and they addressed it. Second time they addressed something in the parking lot at work (different issue, both relatively minor).

This is the easiest/best service I've ever had with a car.

On another note, I'm a "car guy" who has been on an automotive forum for various brands since the time they've become popular on the internet (20+ years). The griping on each one would make you think it was the most unreliable, difficult to fix, car in existence! (Only with older BMWs was this true! ) Social media in this regard is a double edged sword for Tesla. Sure it gets you lots of notoriety but when one of these "YouTube Stars" has a problem they'll act like everbody else (the world is ending! ) with far more influence on public perception.

YMMV

 

[KarenRei]

Glovis Cosmos arriving in SF - possibly the next Model 3 transport to the EU or China.

Let's see if it goes to Pier 80 like the Glovis Captain.

ED: Passing under the Bay Bridge right now.
ED2: Looks like she has a couple tugs on her (Delta Lindsey and Liberty). Seems to be moving out of the main channel. Pier 80 looking likely.
ED3: Getting pretty close!
ED4: She's turning! Looks like this is our ride

 

[AlMc]

It's like magic. I guess people really don't want it to break that level.


My question stands.

Your question may stand but while I can not say that it never happens: police are trained to NOT shoot at windshields/face of a driver with laser guns. In addition, these are class 1 lasers which are considered safe. Now, would I point one direction try into my eyes? NO. At the distance police use them they are considered safe.

EDIT: Sorry to continue off topic. Just want to make sure off topic about laser safety does not go too far astray as to what is 'safe' and 'not safe'.

Police Laser Radar

 

[M3Rider]

Glovis Cosmos arriving in SF - possibly the next Model 3 transport to the EU or China.

View attachment 369375

Let's see if it goes to Pier 80 like the Glovis Captain.

ED: Passing under the Bay Bridge right now.

Somebody in Zeebrugge needs to step up and count those cars daily as they are being unloaded. That heroic duty is possible as was proven by @augkuo who counted them at Freemont. Well, photographed for later counting.

 

[Electroman]

Glovis Cosmos arriving in SF - possibly the next Model 3 transport to the EU or China.

View attachment 369375

Let's see if it goes to Pier 80 like the Glovis Captain.

ED: Passing under the Bay Bridge right now.
ED2: Looks like she has a couple tugs on her (Delta Lindsey and Liberty). Seems to be moving out of the main channel. Pier 80 looking likely.

... and....?

 

[RobStark]

Ford confirms all-electric F-Series pickup truck coming

This could potentially be big news.

If they plan for 100k plus unit capacity.

If they plan to sell a handful of units to Ranchers in Santa Barbara Country then not so much.

 

[printf42]

I have been going through the 13F filings each day and I do not see an update from T Rowe, and around 9/30/18 they added 5 million shares so I don't think I agree with you.

Can someone have access set the fact straight about this T Rowe holdings thing?
A top TSLA tweet claim they dumped ~46% of there TSLA holding in Q4:
People's Grain on Twitter

 

[AlexS]

Somebody in Zeebrugge needs to step up and count those cars daily as they are being unloaded. That heroic duty is possible as was proven by @augkuo who counted them at Freemont. Well, photographed for later counting.

Crew member reported, that Glovis Captain has on board approx 2000 Model 3-s

 

[KarenRei]

Ford confirms all-electric F-Series pickup truck coming

This could potentially be big news.

If they plan for 100k plus unit capacity.

If they plan to sell a handful of units to Ranchers in Santa Barbara Country then not so much.

Ford is nowhere near ready for true electric pickup mass production. Many years off.

 

[RobStark]

Ford is nowhere near ready for true electric pickup mass production. Many years off.

They could go from zero to 100k units per year in three years if they prioritize F Series BEV.

That is more than enough to save their bacon.

If they dither until Tesla is producing 100k trucks per year they are F.......seried.

Tesla Gen II uses 10 GWh per year.

SSK Innovations is planning for 10 GWh per year for its new plant in suburban GA and they say they are willing to invest more if demand is there. IF Ford is willing to sign contracts.....