Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

So let me get this straight. Troy says:

-Prices go down, it’s because of a problem.
-Prices go up, it’s because of a problem.

If prices don’t change, does that mean there’s a problem too?

Do I have that right? Am I full TSLAQ now?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fred Lambert was misinformed. I expect an immediate retraction and apology.

Fredtrik isn't the only one who owe's an apology (and needs to shake his head).

An Officer from the local police said the car left tracks going straight off the road 'which is consistent with FSD'.

Uh, no it isn't. Autopilot (car didn't have FSD) would have tried to turn. It's consistent with the autosteer assistant not being active. Just like if a drunk disabled Autosteer with a clumsy steering wheel tug, and failed to notice it. Don't drive drunk (go figure).

THAT's on the NHTSA, due to the incessant nagging they require, which provides 5 opportunities every minute to unintentionally disable Autosteer.

There's more than one clown in this circus.

 

[mongo]

Fredtrik isn't the only one who owe's an apology (and needs to shake his head).

An Officer from the local police said the car left tracks going straight off the road 'which is consistent with FSD'.

Uh, no it isn't. Autopilot (car didn't have FSD) would have tried to turn. It's consistent with the autosteer assistant not being active. Just like if a drunk disabled Autosteer with a clumsy steering wheel tug, and failed to notice it. Don't drive drunk (go figure).

THAT's on the NHTSA, due to the incessant nagging they require, which provides 5 opportunities every minute to unintentionally disable Autosteer.

There's more than one clown in this circus.

I respect that you used single quotes instead of double for the paraphrase. There is much wrong in the source material:

At the scene of the crash, Madden said, he found “rolling tire marks,” meaning the motor continued to feed power to the wheels after impact. There were no skid marks, Madden said, meaning von Ohain appeared not to have hit the brakes.

“Given the crash dynamics and how the vehicle drove off the road with no evidence of a sudden maneuver, that fits with the [driver-assistance] feature” being engaged, Madden said.

Much wrong here:
Rolling tire marks indicate lack of motor force. In other words, no hard acceleration nor hard braking.
What it fits is that the driver wasn't driving and the car wasn't suddenly reacting (as opposed to all the scene setting lead in text). Sort of like basic cruise control (also a driver assistance feature) or manual distracted operation.

For those wondering about FCW/AEB, that wouldn't do anything about a drop off/ cliff edge.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Much wrong here:
Rolling tire marks indicate lack of motor force. In other words, no hard acceleration nor hard braking.

Yeah, possibly forgivable for an uneducated 'journalist', but definately a problem when a accident investigator is propagating physically unreal scenarios to the Press.

Smaks of that Texas County Constable who was so wrong about the drunk driving deaths in Woodlands, TX. It also took 2 years for that investigation, duing which time his false info was spread in the media (remember, in Texas that Constable is an Elected Official):

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash | REUTERS (Feb 08, 2023)

Different this time, with Elon stomping that narrative because the bloddy fact-checkers didn't bother to find out if the car had even downloaded FSD.

Elon Musk on X: "He was not on FSD. The software had unfortunately never been downloaded. I say “unfortunately”, because the accident probably would not have happened if FSD had been engaged." /X (Feb 13, 2024)​

Not that would prevent the story being spun as it was. This is a PR War against Elon and Tesla, and facts are the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd casualties. Always remember to look behind the fence. That's who's directing this show.

 

[Cobbler]

So let me get this straight. Troy says:

-Prices go down, it’s because of a problem.
-Prices go up, it’s because of a problem.

If prices don’t change, does that mean there’s a problem too?

Do I have that right? Am I full TSLAQ now?

Allow me to play Devil's advocate:

Doesn't Troy say: Tesla's pricing is almost real-time matching demand/supply. If you have a short period of production downtime, prices go up slightly to slow demand. Once production ramps up again (like Fremont and Berlin today) and is back to full speed, price drop follow.
If rates go down and monthly payments fall, you'll see demand rising and eventually outpacing production. Price increases as results.
If rates remain high, Tesla tries to keep production rate in pace with demand. Hence why factories aren't running at full capacity for the moment.

Just trying to understand the situation.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Yeah, possibly forgivable for an uneducated 'journalist', but definately a problem when a accident investigator is propagating physically unreal scenarios to the Press.

Smaks of that Texas County Constable who was so wrong about the drunk driving deaths in Woodlands, TX. It also took 2 years for that investigation, duing which time his false info was spread in the media (remember, in Texas that Constable is an Elected Official):

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash | REUTERS (Feb 08, 2023)

Different this time, with Elon stomping that narrative because the bloddy fact-checkers didn't bother to find out if the car had even downloaded FSD.

Elon Musk on X: "He was not on FSD. The software had unfortunately never been downloaded. I say “unfortunately”, because the accident probably would not have happened if FSD had been engaged." /X (Feb 13, 2024)​

Not that would prevent the story being spun as it was. This is a PR War against Elon and Tesla, and facts are the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd casualties. Always remember to look behind the fence. That's who's directing this show.

His friend who was in the car said he was using FSD both before and after the golf outing.

The guy's wife said he used FSD almost every time he drove.

 

[kbM3]

Well balanced article about the drop in EV demand. Basically there was too much euphoria when Teslas were selling like crazy during the supply chain disruption causing other vehicles to be scarce, followed by the difficulty facing EV’s as they transition from early adopters to mainstream (as well as higher interest).

This sounds like the real reason for Tesla’s valuation drop.

The Six Months That Short-Circuited the Electric-Vehicle Revolution — The Wall Street Journal

Automakers went all in on battery power, but buyers have proven more hesitant

apple.news

 

[Usain]

His friend who was in the car said he was using FSD both before and after the golf outing.

The guy's wife said he used FSD almost every time he drove.

Sounds like the friend might have gotten FSD mixed up with Autopilot?

Tesla would know if FSD was never downloaded. And since that fact would be important to any lawsuit, I'm confident Tesla is reporting that fact correctly.

 

[willow_hiller]

Sounds like the friend might have gotten FSD mixed up with Autopilot?

Tesla would know if FSD was never downloaded. And since that fact would be important to any lawsuit, I'm confident Tesla is reporting that fact correctly.

There's a huge difference between "FSD" and "FSD Beta." This crash occurred in May 2022, at which point FSD Beta was still firmly in the "Safety Score" invite-only phase.

I think it's likely that this driver had purchased the FSD package, and was using Navigate on Autopilot.

 

[Usain]

There's a huge difference between "FSD" and "FSD Beta." This crash occurred in May 2022, at which point FSD Beta was still firmly in the "Safety Score" invite-only phase.

I think it's likely that this driver had purchased the FSD package, and was using Navigate on Autopilot.

I thought of that possibility. But Elon said, "He was not on FSD. The software had unfortunately never been downloaded." So Elon is claiming that FSD was not on the car at all.

Elon could have gotten that mixed up like you said, but I kind of doubt it.

 

[heltok]

Allow me to play Devil's advocate:

Doesn't Troy say: Tesla's pricing is almost real-time matching demand/supply. If you have a short period of production downtime, prices go up slightly to slow demand. Once production ramps up again (like Fremont and Berlin today) and is back to full speed, price drop follow.
If rates go down and monthly payments fall, you'll see demand rising and eventually outpacing production. Price increases as results.
If rates remain high, Tesla tries to keep production rate in pace with demand. Hence why factories aren't running at full capacity for the moment.

Just trying to understand the situation.

Imo if you are either supply constrained or demand constrained you are doing something wrong. You should be both at the same time and neither, ie right between. Never get huge waiting lists and never have a huge supply. Adjust prices very often to be at the sweetspot of demand/supply. Cybertruck $100k when they promised $39k, great! Produce as many as they can and set the prices. Then ramp production and lower prices. Great strategy and the alternative sucks with scalpers and long waiting lists.

Imo Tesla has the right strategy. During covid lockdowns they raised prices. Then they ramped and high interest happened so they lowered prices. So they remained between supply constrained and demand constrained the whole time. Great. And as demand/supply changes they should keep adjusting the price to remain so. Their mission is to build as many cars as possible and sell them for what the market is willing to pay for them at that volume. Doing this they can lower costs and speed up FSD data gathering and once FSD is ready they will have more cars to earn money from.

People who will argue the same conclusion to a change in both directions, ie a model that gives the same output no matter what the input is, have a very bad model of the world and these people can be ignored. Their model is not predictive and thus not useful...

 

[mongo]

There's a huge difference between "FSD" and "FSD Beta." This crash occurred in May 2022, at which point FSD Beta was still firmly in the "Safety Score" invite-only phase.

I think it's likely that this driver had purchased the FSD package, and was using Navigate on Autopilot.

The driver was a Tesla employee and was eligible for free access to FSD and Beta. It would have been at version 10.11.2 or 10.69.3.3 .
Still requires downloading and activating in the settings menu.

 

[Snerruc]

Back on trucks, I had a cousin that drove for a major company. They expected a unit to go 500,000 miles minimum before overhaul with minimal other maintenance. Big rigs are at least an order of magnitude more reliable than cars and there is often a warranty involved. When Tesla has semis past 1,000,000 miles with reliability, they are probably ready to risk actual sales. Also.mega chargers need to be rolled out. This will probably take years. Do we know if Tesla charged PepsiCo anything for their units or if they are test units?

 

[jerry33]

Back on trucks, I had a cousin that drove for a major company. They expected a unit to go 500,000 miles minimum before overhaul with minimal other maintenance. Big rigs are at least an order of magnitude more reliable than cars and there is often a warranty involved. When Tesla has semis past 1,000,000 miles with reliability, they are probably ready to risk actual sales. Also.mega chargers need to be rolled out. This will probably take years. Do we know if Tesla charged PepsiCo anything for their units or if they are test units?

Everything I have read indicated "PepsiCo purchased".

 

[SOULPEDL]

This crash occurred in May 2022

And now it comes out? Or this was a different crash from what was posted yesterday?

 

[mongo]

And now it comes out? Or this was a different crash from what was posted yesterday?

Same, and a year after Colorado State Patrol closed their investigation.
Colorado State Patrol wraps up investigation into fatal Evergreen Tesla crash, fire

 

[FreqFlyer]

Oh, also this is happening too which is pretty astounding when its successful. I'll personally make a trip to Santa Monica just to go there.

Tesla diner takes shape at 7001 W Santa Monica Boulevard in Hollywood

In Hollywood, the steel skeleton of a new project which combines a Tesla charging facility with a diner and a drive-in theater is taking shape quickly at 7001 W. Santa Monica Boulevard.

la.urbanize.city

View attachment 1018004

Fence got tagged quick!..........Wow!

 

[Artful Dodger]

How Tesla Will Kill Gas Automakers w/ Jeff Lutz | Brighter with Herbert (15 min ago)

 

[Krugerrand]

Is there or has there been evidence for "demand limited" except in time or location pockets that get sorted out (or sort themselves out) within a short period.

According to my demand share purchases - unequivocally yes.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Fence got tagged quick!..........Wow!

I saw that local artwork. I think it would be cool if Tesla saved some of the wall, or recreate a part of the art in lights/hologram. Would be an inclusive move.
Vote to pick the best one, keep that one around I say.