Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

IANAL, looks like the award will be argued down a bit and decision will not be appealed.

You don't know Elon then. Zero chance he folds on this when he feels that he is in the right. It is not in his nature to yield. c.f. Elon throwing a sumo wrestler at the cost of (several) cervical vertebrae.

Elon will make this right, and count the cost later.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Who are the lawyers who sued?
What backgrounds do they have?
Have they tried to pull this stunt with any other company?
What are the odds they will get billions?
If that happens can Tesla appeal ?

The lawyers that sued are trusted veteran fighters for Big Oil and Tobacco. Nice guys !

 

[Sunlight]

We invested in Tesla in 2013/14 and have continued to add shares over the years. Most of these later investments are now under water while Tesla has been trading down or sideways for a long time now.

Despite feeling a little discombobulated by this upheaval, we still have faith in the fundamentals of Tesla although our rosy eyes have been rubbed a number of times!

The pressures on Tesla shares are immense and continuous until some magic happens again. Currently the shares are not 'sexy' and we all know the reasons – primarily slow rollout of FSD; the Semi; Cybertruck; new models and so on. Plus there is relentless negative media as the usual vested interests flex their muscles – joined now sadly by the OEMs who are struggling to compete in the EV world and are now ironically happy to slow down the transition (or try to).

But I see another wild card on the horizon and wonder what you think about this scenario. I was reading about the development of zero-emissions synthetic fuel and the intention to get it down to comparable (or cheaper) than petrol and diesel. Clearly the oil industry will get into this....

If this does happen (or threatens to happen) in the foreseeable future, then there will massive pressure to swing resources and encouragement that way as all road cars will instantly become non-polluting however old and all the OEMs wedded to the ICE narrative will wring their hands in glee. (Toyota anyone?)

Noisy engines; no stranded assets; no range anxiety!! Vehicles could return to hybrids or (possibly) PHEVs. The fight then will be whether pure BEVs are a competitive proposition – on purchase cost, running costs and practicality.

If EVs still are struggling to compete broadly enough, Joe Public may return to what they know and love and BEVs could conceivably start to fade away as a 2020's fad. With new battery tech and costs, it MAY be too late for ICE cars to win the battle …..

But if they don't then Tesla will be faced with a few options(including adding range-extenders = ICE?); stay BEV only and accept a limited market or fade away.

Which doesn't bode well for my retirement funds (which are mostly in Tesla shares)

Lots to ponder on – thoughts from the wise Gurus out there?

Vasbyt (hang on in local vernacular)

 

[Dikkie Dik]

I was reading about the development of zero-emissions synthetic fuel and the intention to get it down to comparable (or cheaper) than petrol and diesel. Clearly the oil industry will get into this....

There is no such thing. It could be carbon neutral if carbon capture is used in the process but otherwise it’s still fuel with exhaust emissions.

The process is extremely costly in terms of (electric) energy used so direct electrification will always be superior.

You’re absolutely right that big oil will be all over this though

 

[cliff harris]

Even if the synthetic fuel was made from magical pixie dust and had zero emissions and was 50% cheaper than petrol (staggeringly unlikely), then you still couldn't PAY me to switch away from having my car charge at home.
Both the economics and the convenience of electric charging mean that unless there is some new amazing physics breakthrough, the future is inevitably going to be BEVs.
It might look less certain if you are in the US, or Africa, but ask people in China or Norway if they think BEVs are not the inevitable near future? TBH I struggle to think of ANY scenario that could lead to us slowing down the transition to BEVs. Even magical new technology (Toyota) takes a decade to make it through testing, prototypes, first models, acceptance and rollout.
Look how long 4680s have taken, and that's just a form factor and engineering change for broadly the same (li-ion) tech. Companies who were late to BEVs will continue to pretend that a much better solution is imminent, right up until they are formally declared bankrupt.

 

[DarkandStormy]

You don't know Elon then. Zero chance he folds on this when he feels that he is in the right. It is not in his nature to yield. c.f. Elon throwing a sumo wrestler at the cost of (several) cervical vertebrae.

Elon will make this right, and count the cost later.

Tesla critic crows 'my work is vindicated' after Elon Musk agrees to pay him $10,000 to settle defamation lawsuit

Tesla had accused the critic of dangerously swerving his car toward a Model 3 on a freeway test drive and injuring a Tesla security guard in a hit-and-run.

fortune.com

 

[2daMoon]

We invested in Tesla in 2013/14 and have continued to add shares over the years. Most of these later investments are now under water while Tesla has been trading down or sideways for a long time now.

Despite feeling a little discombobulated by this upheaval, we still have faith in the fundamentals of Tesla although our rosy eyes have been rubbed a number of times!

The pressures on Tesla shares are immense and continuous until some magic happens again. Currently the shares are not 'sexy' and we all know the reasons – primarily slow rollout of FSD; the Semi; Cybertruck; new models and so on. Plus there is relentless negative media as the usual vested interests flex their muscles – joined now sadly by the OEMs who are struggling to compete in the EV world and are now ironically happy to slow down the transition (or try to).

But I see another wild card on the horizon and wonder what you think about this scenario. I was reading about the development of zero-emissions synthetic fuel and the intention to get it down to comparable (or cheaper) than petrol and diesel. Clearly the oil industry will get into this....

If this does happen (or threatens to happen) in the foreseeable future, then there will massive pressure to swing resources and encouragement that way as all road cars will instantly become non-polluting however old and all the OEMs wedded to the ICE narrative will wring their hands in glee. (Toyota anyone?)

Noisy engines; no stranded assets; no range anxiety!! Vehicles could return to hybrids or (possibly) PHEVs. The fight then will be whether pure BEVs are a competitive proposition – on purchase cost, running costs and practicality.

If EVs still are struggling to compete broadly enough, Joe Public may return to what they know and love and BEVs could conceivably start to fade away as a 2020's fad. With new battery tech and costs, it MAY be too late for ICE cars to win the battle …..

But if they don't then Tesla will be faced with a few options(including adding range-extenders = ICE?); stay BEV only and accept a limited market or fade away.

Which doesn't bode well for my retirement funds (which are mostly in Tesla shares)

Lots to ponder on – thoughts from the wise Gurus out there?

Vasbyt (hang on in local vernacular)

Don't forget the cost of electricity is coming down. Can synthetic fuel compete against nearly free electricity?

Meanwhile, Tesla will be right in the middle of that as well with multiple Megapacktories producing storage for the worldwide S-curve adoption of sustainable energy.

It already costs less to build new, green power production than it does to maintain existing fossil electricity plants, and they can be brought online in a fraction of the time it takes to build a new fossil fuel generating site.

Bring on these synthetic fuels to compete against electricity and let's see which one takes the prize.

 

[mongo]

Don't forget the cost of electricity is coming down. Can synthetic fuel compete against nearly free electricity?

Meanwhile, Tesla will be right in the middle of that as well with multiple Megapacktories producing storage for the worldwide S-curve adoption of sustainable energy.

It already costs less to build new, green power production than it does to maintain existing fossil electricity plants, and they can be brought online in a fraction of the time it takes to build a new fossil fuel generating site.

Bring on these synthetic fuels to compete against electricity and let's see which one takes the prize.

If the synthetic fuel is made using free electricity and the end application is more feasible with a higher density energy storage medium, then sure, it competes.
CO2+H2O+solar->CH4 for Starship
(L/C)NG:14.9 kWh/kg
Li-ion: 0.25 kWh/kg
Jet A: 12 kWh/kg
Diesel: 12.7 kWh/kg

 

[UncaNed]

There is no such thing. It could be carbon neutral if carbon capture is used in the process but otherwise it’s still fuel with exhaust emissions.

The process is extremely costly in terms of (electric) energy used so direct electrification will always be superior.

You’re absolutely right that big oil will be all over this though

"carbon capture".

Doesn't simple thermodynamics dictate that the thermodynamic energy cost of "capturing" that carbon will have to be as much or more than the energy liberated from burning the carbon, and therefore it would make burning the fuel in the first place a net loss if it has to be recaptured at some point?

And isn't the above the simple, end-all answer to any suggestion of "carbon capture" as a solution for anything (yet for some reason I've never see it stated this simply before)?

Please don't reply on this thread, instead please in this TMC energy thread.

 

[2daMoon]

If the synthetic fuel is made using free electricity and the end application is more feasible with a higher density energy storage medium, then sure, it competes.
CO2+H2O+solar->CH4 for Starship
(L/C)NG:14.9 kWh/kg
Li-ion: 0.25 kWh/kg
Jet A: 12 kWh/kg
Diesel: 12.7 kWh/kg

In the end, just using electricity to power vehicles will take a step out of the equation. A step that will figure into the overall cost of the synthetic fuel.

Then, factor in the ongoing decline of the cost of Lithium production, falling faster than Tony Seba expected.

Also, didn't CATL indicate last week that their production cost for batteries will soon be 50% lower due to production refinements, at the existing Lithium cost?

Lastly, of all the items listed above, only Li-ion is not destroyed when used. Then, the base elements can be recycled after many, many, many use cycles. So it is difficult to compare against synthetic fuel without accounting for how many kWh cycles occur before replacement is needed. Factor this in and Li-ion and near zero electricity costs might still have a significant advantage.

 

[scaesare]

If it's used in both South America and North America it could be time for SNACS

World Accessible Charging System?

 

[scaesare]

Cybertruck User and Service Manual now live

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/cybertruck/en_us/

Cybertruck Service Manual | Tesla

service.tesla.com

Pack looks pretty typical for a Tesla:

 

[scaesare]

... Megapacktories ...

Vote for immediate adoption and addition to the lexicon.

 

[jerry33]

World Accessible Charging System?

和CS ( 和 means harmony and is pronounced "WA".)

 

[2daMoon]

A thought just flew into the space between my ears (which, it seems, is vast), and became lodged there.

What if on a Starship launch test they put a Cybertruck in the payload section, then successfully launch and softly splashdown near Hawaii where they then recover the Cybertruck.

Then, put this Space-faring Cybertruck up for auction to support some good cause. Perhaps something that inspires folks to become engineers.

Once the auction is over, imagine the flurry of excitement an announcement would bring, knowing that the Texas Institute for Technology and Science has funding secured.

Would the news channels pick that up and provide Tesla with any more of that free advertising we all love?

HODS (hold on for descent from space)

 

[2daMoon]

Vote for immediate adoption and addition to the lexicon.

Bradford Ferguson gets credit for that term.

 

[scaesare]

Ok - then who's they though? Are you referring to Youtuber(s), Ford, the enclave of Tesla haters?

Actions speak louder than words, at least, to me. The fact that NACS is an almost worldwide standard means that automakers are coming on board for this part of the train towards sustainability. Regardless of whether they want to or not is a different story, but the fact is they've adopted the new standard and are bringing their customers along too.

Tesla is doing the heavy lifting no doubt, but it still takes those automakers to get to sustainability. Elon has said a number of times that it's impossible for Tesla to conquer 100% of the market. It probably, also, goes against the ideals of a capitalist society to attract a multi-trillion dollar business to 100% take over multiple multi-trillion dollar markets.

I think what may have people skeptical is that, while these actions appear to support the mission of moving to sustainability, we've seen time and time again what appears to be lip-service, accompanied by some small (often mandated) token action.

I tend to give organizations the benefit of the doubt, hoping that they are looking to genuinely support the EV effort whole heartedly. And while I'd like for it to be for altruistically wanting to combat climate change, I'll settle for the reality of economic survival forcing their hand.

Hence, I rooted for:

-The EV1
-The Chevy Bolt
-Electrify America
- Countless battery factory plans
-VW ID4
-Ford F-150
-Hyundai Kona
-etc...

...only to be disappointed in some fashion. In some cases I think the manufacturer was genuinely trying to make it work but just couldn't initially(i.e.- Kona), and others seem to be making a good go at it (Kia). But in many cases it feels like once they realized their bluff was being called, they pulled out. Or some somebody (*COUGH*petroleum companies or unions*COUGH*) got to them,

Nonetheless, I still root for/support companies announcing plans to join the fight... I'd rather they realize(even reluctantly) that they can garner customers via good will, than criticize the effort, even if I face more disappointment.

So... are Ford and the group supporting NACS out of the goodness of their heart, or out of desperation to try and be competitive if the landscape continues to change in a manner they'd rather it not?

While I'd hope it's the former, I'll take the latter.

 

[Knightshade]

But isn't it detrimental to the company directly?

In terms of net cost it's much less so than the alternative if there'd been no case, is their argument. They're asking only a fraction of the $ saved to the company- a fraction pretty much in line with previous massive cases.

Instead of a influx of cash due to the option exercise, they now have to issue shares for free? And that won't cause any tax consequences/cash-outflow at all?

In their argument they actually point out paying the shares would actually provide a tax deduction for Tesla, without reducing their cash on hand as a cash settlement would do.

A company neutral exchange would be to issue those 29m shares as options with same total option cost as Elons full package. But at the current stock price that would be a negative trade..

That... makes no mathematical sense. If they're asking for 11% of the savings than both the # of options and the original strike cost would be relevant to that. I do think there's a very fair argument to be made about asking for granted shares vs options however, and if it came to it I'd expect Tesla to raise that point as well.

And on top of the monetary value of the request, there is the value of the associated voting rights. How much does this add to the claimed sensible 11% ask value?

This would be less than 0.1% of outstanding shares- not an amount that would be considered substantive for voting purposes in any legal sense I can imagine.

 

[RubberToe]

New cottage industry of 2024 is going to be bloggers/media camping out or "investigating" every instance where non-Tesla vehicles have an issue with charging at a Supercharger. The list of issues discovered will be long, giving just one example: An F-150 Lightning charging at a Supercharger with 64 stalls will take up two spaces, reducing the available charging posts to 62. The HORROR CNN will send out a news crew to investigate, local news channels will fly out several helicopters to cover the ensuing mayhem. Investigative reporters from the New York Times will write a 5,000 word essay on how the driver in question was unable to access the Kettleman City lounge. A law firm will initiate a class action lawsuit funded by Exxon against Tesla, Elon Musk, all 27 of Elon's current and upcoming children and the Tesla BOD, claiming "charging price discrimination", since all gas stations charge the same price, universally.

The flavor of most headlines will be something like: "Tesla Superchargers use up a massive 20%, Tesla is doomed". Of course, Tesla will certainly NOT be considering expanding the Supercharger network going forward, and will almost certainly STOP deploying Superchargers now that other EV makers will be using them. And the rumors of Tesla deploying new V4 chargers with longer cables to support any EV will be found to be a BASELESS head fake by Tesla. The drive through stalls deployed in Europe will be discovered to be AI GENERATED fake videos created by the vast conspiracy of Tesla investors hoping to prop up their failing companies stock price. Analysts will lower their TSLA price target from $25 down to a more realistic valuation of $4.20 per share.

Reporting just another in a long series of devastating financial miscues from the inept management leading the company. As we all know the ONLY reason the company even exists is through the good graces of the US Government, and the TRILLIONS of $ that were lent to Tesla and never repaid, Besides, everyone knows that GM and Mary Barra are "leading the way" on EVs, and certainly NOT stepping off the gas (so to speak) and waiting for a more favorable change of administration to perhaps begin the transition from dirty EVs back to the CLEAN diesel cars we so fondly remember VW selling.

RT

 

[SOULPEDL]

BTD...