Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I can only imagine how devastated they'll be to lose your business.

Small town. The broker will be incentivized to keep my business. He’ll do the most he can within the parameters he has from the insurance company.

I understand the sarcasm. But I’m an ideal client. Four policies, about to be a fifth, and I don’t make claims. It’s literally free money for them year after year.

 

[Knightshade]

I somewhat appreciate Troy's work, although at times he can be a bit narrow-minded (which likely contributes to his proficiency with numbers).
However, demand dynamics are complex. Slight reductions in price can significantly increase demand. Similarly, selling in February versus December can lead to varying levels of demand. Elon mentioned that factories produce and ramp up a fixed number of cars, yet they must be sold in a market characterized by seasonal fluctuations and other peculiarities. This is why they change price so frequently.

Indeed, they opted to maintain 2 shifts in Berlin rather than 3. The financial implications of running a night shift are substantial, necessitating a significant increase in car sales to justify the investment. Currently, it may not be economically viable. Would this scenario be described as being "limited by demand"? It's a bit harsh, IMHO.

I always read his remarks as "limited by demand at/around current pricing"- and that seems accurate. Obviously if Tesla cut prices 50% demand would be higher- but they can't (profitably) afford to do that at this point.

So they've done the math and concluded the price they'd need to cut to to increase demand enough to make a 3rd Berlin shift worth it is too much of a price cut, and thus haven't done that, and thus no 3rd shift in Berlin.

For years Tesla operated in an environment where as fast as it was physically possible to make cars, they had buyers for them at prices with healthy margins- that's no longer true, and thus they leave some production capacity on the table, rather than slash prices so low they'd have buyers for those 3rd shift cars.

It'll go back to being true for some years once next-gen vehicle starts production- but until then sales growth in auto will be (relatively) flat- currently looking like near to flat for Q1, and even 10% YoY for all 2024 will be a heavy lift.

 

[Musskiah]

Same here with no collision history and a 40% increase in under two years after switching providers. Explained the rise with BS "inflation" excuse. Fished around for another company and the best quote from another provider is (guest what?) 40% less.

They are vultures. Rope you in with a competitive rate, then jack it up every six months, hoping you won't notice and go shopping around.

Robotaxi will be self-insured by the owner operator providing the service, negating any need to raise rates ($/mile to customers) beyond what is necessary to keep costs aligned with growth and maintaining profitability.

This, naturally, results in another entrenched legacy market (insurance) being disrupted by Tesla. Whoda thunk it?

My experince with Tesla insurance has been phenomenal in comparison with my historical insurancel experince. I shared my rates and policy awhile back. Tesla Insurance will disrupt quite a few of the entrenched dinosaurs.

 

[Usain]

I mean, I stand to make a lot of money if I buy a lottery ticket I think is a winner. That doesn't mean it's a reasonable assumption.

"I'll be rich if assuming X is right" is an incredibly bad reason to assume anything lacking an otherwise solid case for the assumption.




No, they are not. Their approaches are deeply, fundamentally, different regarding self driving. If you can't recognize that you're going to come to a lot of bad conclusions trying to apply data from one to the other.



This seems to be a lack of technical understanding issue more than anything- where you don't even seem clear how fundamentally different Waymo and Teslas approach's are to self driving--- nor have any understanding of Teslas own approach, tech, or limitations, and are simply going on "If I'm right I get rich".

My assumptions are quite reasonable and you have failed to give any concrete technical reason otherwise.

 

[2daMoon]

I made an appointment to see my broker in person. Way harder to lie to me or dispense bs. For starters, I’ll be expressing my desire that the company stop spamming commercials using high dollar athletes and actors to sell their products. Animated talking reptiles and cartoon characters seem to be fairly effective for others.

I’d rather not have to shop around. I’ve been quite satisfied to this point, so I’ll give them an opportunity to make it right first. They tell me I’m already getting all their discounts. Guess they’ll need to make up a new one because I won’t pay the inflated prices, especially with another vehicle coming on board shortly.

So, you, of all people, are expecting this relationship between you and the carrion-eaters to result in an equitable, ethical, rational resolution to your satisfaction?

Are you feeling well?

They are under strict orders to hold out, never substantially lowering the rate. They fully expect their savvy customers to move around to other carriers every few years. Like people have done with other financial instruments such as credit cards to get the best interest rate. This is where the odds pay off for them, in that most people will pay more to avoid the inconvenience of having to shop around.

Good luck just the same, but those people at the branch office likely have no authority to offer the changes you seek.

Additionally, over the years I've noticed how, when I call another company for a quote, they most often will pull up all my (formerly personal) information from some shared resource and merely confirm my address and the VINs for the vehicles I want quoted. These companies are participating together in a rigged game, sharing your details and history. It wouldn't surprise me that they might be able to look at what you are paying now, so they know where to aim to get your business.

I think Tesla insurance may offer some solace to car owners eventually, as they can custom tailor an insurance product to a specific driver's history and habits.

Robotaxi will be all that more enticing to anyone clever enough to discount not only the purchase and maintenance cost of their current auto ownership but by adding in the cost of auto insurance as well it could be a lever for many folks to no longer own a car.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm curious if y'all think this run is done or not. We've made it to Max Pain, so no help from the banks today.
I could sell a few to pocket some gains, but something tells me to wait for at least 180 to celebrate (on principle).

I think I see another effort now... it could be that California finally woke up this AM and realized the news. So in about 8 hours, people are going to be calling their best friend (with FSD) and getting the inside scoop. Their friend will call the broker and ask... "How much TSLA do I own", to which the broker replies, "It fluctuates but right now it's 0% as we feel it is too high a risk." Then Tuesday happens...

This may take us to 180, which is perking up today already, and it's only Monday.
(Currently MP is 172.5)

 

[insaneoctane]

When fsd proves 10 safer than a human, car insurance cost will likely come down.
The car injury lawyers may feel the effect, and that may further reduce car insurance premiums.
Stay positive, something good always happens.

The car injury lawyers are certainly contributing to our insurance rates going up. Once FSD is involved, I personally see the lawyers coming out of the woodwork for a shot at Tesla and their deeeep pockets. Unfortunately, it will be epic until enough cases are lost that the wild gamble seems so unlikely that it's not worth it to those attorneys...For many of them it's just a lottery ticket.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You are saying this based on your own experience or on what you have been reading from others experiences ?

My own experiences. For real, the wife was highly impressed on multiple instances. (I can't imagine how scary it must be the whole time sitting in the passenger seat - that would freak me out I think.)

I have noticed it doesn't seem to like turning right on red in places it used to before, but it's early still. So I really only needed to add some pedal here and there, but with that, there is no way anyone would be able to tell this is driving on FSD.

My settings were on aggressive. Very light rain at times. It's that good.

 

[Knightshade]

My assumptions are quite reasonable and you have failed to give any concrete technical reason otherwise.

Literally the only reason you've given to support your assumptions is "If they are right I get rich"


That's...the opposite of technical, though I suppose it might fit some definition of concrete.

I've given actual, specific, technical reasons numerous times- both in here (as recently as a couple hours ago, in posts you replied to but dismissed the technical reasons given because ignoring them might make you rich, and many times previous) and in the forum this stuff is actually on topic.

Which, as a reminder, is here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

The fact you seem to have not understood any of those technical reasons is, as the kids say, a you problem.

 

[Electroman]

So, you, of all people, are expecting this relationship between you and the carrion-eaters to result in an equitable, ethical, rational resolution to your satisfaction?

Are you feeling well?

They are under strict orders to hold out, never substantially lowering the rate. They fully expect their savvy customers to move around to other carriers every few years. Like people have done with other financial instruments such as credit cards to get the best interest rate. This is where the odds pay off for them, in that most people will pay more to avoid the inconvenience of having to shop around.

Good luck just the same, but those people at the branch office likely have no authority to offer the changes you seek.

Additionally, over the years I've noticed how, when I call another company for a quote, they most often will pull up all my (formerly personal) information from some shared resource and merely confirm my address and the VINs for the vehicles I want quoted. These companies are participating together in a rigged game, sharing your details and history. It wouldn't surprise me that they might be able to look at what you are paying now, so they know where to aim to get your business.

I think Tesla insurance may offer some solace to car owners eventually, as they can custom tailor an insurance product to a specific driver's history and habits.

Robotaxi will be all that more enticing to anyone clever enough to discount not only the purchase and maintenance cost of their current auto ownership but by adding in the cost of auto insurance as well it could be a lever for many folks to no longer own a car.

Insurance industry is ripe for disruption. You heard it here from me first.

Just like how the outrageous late fees from video chain Blockbuster sealed their fate, time is now ripe to disrupt the greedy auto and home insurance industries.

 

[unk45]

I made an appointment to see my broker in person. Way harder to lie to me or dispense bs. For starters, I’ll be expressing my desire that the company stop spamming commercials using high dollar athletes and actors to sell their products. Animated talking reptiles and cartoon characters seem to be fairly effective for others.

I’d rather not have to shop around. I’ve been quite satisfied to this point, so I’ll give them an opportunity to make it right first. They tell me I’m already getting all their discounts. Guess they’ll need to make up a new one because I won’t pay the inflated prices, especially with another vehicle coming on board shortly.

Without question YMMV, but...other things remaining equal direct writers tend to be less onerous than do those using brokers. Also, it pays to shop! The better your credit rating, the longer no claims, the more types of coverage (e.g. homeowners, auto,etc) the better the deal. Then, there is the reality that some carriers penalize any aluminum-intensive vehicle, others penalize BEV, etc. Beyond that there are always credit ratings that enter directly to rate calculations, marital status, and more such factors.

From working on actuarial problems several times I know that many companies are not exemplary. Some others are historically realistic and tend to favor client longevity. Actuarial tables do consider both loss severity and loss frequency, plus demographic probabilities for both.

Reality disfavors those with demographic problems. Personally I have no claims against me, ever. Also a litany of high performance vehicles. No problems getting good rates but, I'm now 78 so passed into a higher risk category some time ago.

People in mountainous areas tend to have low accident frequency but high severity, flat major urban areas tend to have high frequency and low severity, both for collision and property damage. Liability rates are invariably higher in urban than rural. The list goes on, but still varies by preferences and biases of underwriters too. [example: an unnamed insurance client had a Porsche owning CEO and Chief actuary. at the time I owned a Porsche myself. Their rates were half, 50% of my other company. I moved.] Checking out the underwriters is rarely easy, but especially for Tesla and exotics it is highly desirable.

In theory, once Tesla has achieved critical mass they'll be both cheaper and more reliable than most others. Normally new insurance liens take around 5-6 years to deliver consistent profits, and Tesla will not have the critical mass to do that for another 5-6 years, probably. Then, too, in auto as in homeowners there are in the US major differences by State. Moving often means a new company even if the name appears to be the same.

I do not think insurers are any more prone to be rip-off specialists than are others financial businesses but there certainly are major differences, so shopping is essential, including direct writers. Insurance Agents are the equivalent of car dealers. They always seem honest, but they never sell anything other than their most profitable line, if they can avoid it. Just like extended warranties, gap insurance and other established scam products (dealer typical markup ~100%) insurance agents are adept at steering people to their highest commissions and incentives.

Directs writers help, just as Tesla direct sales helps. Not a panacea, but helps.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Literally the only reason you've given to support your assumptions is "If they are right I get rich"


That's...the opposite of technical, though I suppose it might fit some definition of concrete.

I've given actual, specific, technical reasons numerous times- both in here (as recently as a couple hours ago, in posts you replied to but dismissed the technical reasons given because ignoring them might make you rich, and many times previous) and in the forum this stuff is actually on topic.

Which, as a reminder, is here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

The fact you seem to have not understood any of those technical reasons is, as the kids say, a you problem.

I hardly think that's his (@Usain) only argument.

Let's call a truce between bullish believers (I'm one of them, others too, seemingly on a curved trajectory), and the many not-so-easily-convinced believers that need more evidence, with robotaxi as multiple years out (the more linear and cautious view).

I agree this debate could be in the FSD thread, but we're just having some fun watching it unfold and trying to assess value of the product and the stock accordingly. But if folks keep arguing as if my Dad's bigger than your Dad, the Mod will tell us all to go play somewhere else.

I think this needs to stay in this thread for a little bit anyway. We know where we all stand, and there is no right or wrong predictions. So let's grab some popcorn, watch this play out, and hope our convictions become reality sooner than later.

 

[Krugerrand]

So, you, of all people, are expecting this relationship between you and the carrion-eaters to result in an equitable, ethical, rational resolution to your satisfaction?

Are you feeling well?

They are under strict orders to hold out, never substantially lowering the rate. They fully expect their savvy customers to move around to other carriers every few years. Like people have done with other financial instruments such as credit cards to get the best interest rate. This is where the odds pay off for them, in that most people will pay more to avoid the inconvenience of having to shop around.

Good luck just the same, but those people at the branch office likely have no authority to offer the changes you seek.

Additionally, over the years I've noticed how, when I call another company for a quote, they most often will pull up all my (formerly personal) information from some shared resource and merely confirm my address and the VINs for the vehicles I want quoted. These companies are participating together in a rigged game, sharing your details and history. It wouldn't surprise me that they might be able to look at what you are paying now, so they know where to aim to get your business.

I think Tesla insurance may offer some solace to car owners eventually, as they can custom tailor an insurance product to a specific driver's history and habits.

Robotaxi will be all that more enticing to anyone clever enough to discount not only the purchase and maintenance cost of their current auto ownership but by adding in the cost of auto insurance as well it could be a lever for many folks to no longer own a car.

You may be right, but good customers can have surprising power. I’ve been with this company for over a decade and I had to switch at the time because the company I was with didn’t cover where I moved to.

In this time they’ve literally made a decade worth of free money from me via multiple policies. Easy peasy. I’m as low risk as it gets for insurance purposes and that’s why I already get multiple discounts. Anyway, we’ll see.

 

[GOVA]

What is really turning out to be incredible is that most Tesla will be SAS. Cars, robots, even Neuralink devices will be 'just' hardware to facilitate the software subscriptions.

Counting cars every quarter does not make sense to me. You are free to dig Troy bot if you please.

Once the 3 major pieces of hardware are ready along with their software counterparts, this will change humanity several times. AWS will look like a drop in an Ocean.

Me likey.

 

[Usain]

Literally the only reason you've given to support your assumptions is "If they are right I get rich"


That's...the opposite of technical, though I suppose it might fit some definition of concrete.

I've given actual, specific, technical reasons numerous times- both in here (as recently as a couple hours ago, in posts you replied to but dismissed the technical reasons given because ignoring them might make you rich, and many times previous) and in the forum this stuff is actually on topic.

Which, as a reminder, is here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

The fact you seem to have not understood any of those technical reasons is, as the kids say, a you problem.

You have never given any technical reason why current hardware is likely to provide a local maximum. Your only argument was, "Earlier hardware was not good enough".

My other assumption is that Tesla will be able to start a robotaxi service relatively soon in a local area, just as Waymo has done. Your only argument there was, "Tesla is taking a different approach to autonomy", which just means they are solving the same problem in two different ways. You have not given any technical reason why Tesla could not soon start a robotaxi service and do it far more profitably than Waymo.

The fact you seem to have not understood that your arguments are extremely weak is, as the kids say, a you problem.

 

[WMTribe90]

I always read his remarks as "limited by demand at/around current pricing"- and that seems accurate. Obviously if Tesla cut prices 50% demand would be higher- but they can't (profitably) afford to do that at this point.

So they've done the math and concluded the price they'd need to cut to to increase demand enough to make a 3rd Berlin shift worth it is too much of a price cut, and thus haven't done that, and thus no 3rd shift in Berlin.

For years Tesla operated in an environment where as fast as it was physically possible to make cars, they had buyers for them at prices with healthy margins- that's no longer true, and thus they leave some production capacity on the table, rather than slash prices so low they'd have buyers for those 3rd shift cars.

It'll go back to being true for some years once next-gen vehicle starts production- but until then sales growth in auto will be (relatively) flat- currently looking like near to flat for Q1, and even 10% YoY for all 2024 will be a heavy lift.

Well said, and at any given moment gas prices, interest rates, commodity prices, competitor pricing and government regulation/subsidy alter the underlying economics of the demand equation. Predicting the number of deliveries is comparatively easy compared to trying to ascribe causality to the P&D numbers. I appreciate Troy tracking and somewhat predicting the P&D numbers, but perhaps he should avoid rationalizing the numbers.

 

[Knightshade]

You have never given any technical reason why current hardware is likely to provide a local maximum. Your only argument was, "Earlier hardware was not good enough".

Yes, I have. Again you either refuse to, or are unable to, understand them.

For example a while back when Tesla had already run entirely out of single-node compute and was forced to spill over to Node 2 on HW3-- making it impossible it would be usable for RT (because they'd have to have at least redundant nodes to be safe enough for an RT.... Waymo, since you love to compare to them, has entire fully independent computers in their cars).

My other assumption is that Tesla will be able to start a robotaxi service relatively soon in a local area, just as Waymo has done.

But again you have no basis for that assumption beyond hope and not understanding why those aren't the same thing.

Your only argument there was, "Tesla is taking a different approach to autonomy", which just means they are solving the same problem in two different ways.

Again, they are not.

Unless you define the problem at a 50,000 foot level and ignore all the details.

Which admittedly seems to be your approach to everything.


Almost NOTHING about how Waymo is doing things will be relevant to how Tesla would create or deploy a self driving system.

You have not given any technical reason why Tesla could not soon start a robotaxi service and do it far more profitably than Waymo.

Sure I have.

But the fact they don't have a system capable of >L2 operation, and certainly not of L4, seems to be a pretty good one to start with.

We went over, in great detail, why that is a fact and as I recall you mostly just denied or misunderstood what the levels mean and what elements Teslas system is missing over in the FSD related threads (lack of a complete OEDR, lack of a fallback mechanism, etc)-- and it wasn't like I was the only one trying to explain why you were wrong either.

There's many OTHER reasons potentially in the way (insufficient redundancies, insufficient ways to clear the few sensors Tesla uses when obscured, insufficient compute, insufficient side visibility at occluded intersections, insufficient distance measurement capabilities esp. on the <HW4 cameras, etc--- some of which may or may not be soluble in SW but it's far from a given on any of em).

I hardly think that's his (@Usain) only argument.

What other ones can you cite, specifically?

 

[Singuy]

With Uber, the human driver takes up to 75% of the revenue.

Tesla will have to give a significant amount of rev to anyone participating in the Tesla network too. And if it's their own fleet, operating expenses wouldn't be cheap since customer service, car cleaning, car charging and car mantanince would all cost money. Also Tesla wants to drop the price per mile vs uber, so profit margin wouldn't be as super high.

However Tesla can make it up from selling the hardware as well, and through charging. All that money a uber driver usually spends like car acquisition, service and gas fill up doesn't go to uber.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I made an appointment to see my broker in person. Way harder to lie to me or dispense bs. For starters, I’ll be expressing my desire that the company stop spamming commercials using high dollar athletes and actors to sell their products. Animated talking reptiles and cartoon characters seem to be fairly effective for others.

I’d rather not have to shop around. I’ve been quite satisfied to this point, so I’ll give them an opportunity to make it right first. They tell me I’m already getting all their discounts. Guess they’ll need to make up a new one because I won’t pay the inflated prices, especially with another vehicle coming on board shortly.

I know your style from past posts. Some might think you'd be the attack dog threatening to take your business elsewhere. But this is where some better negotiations tactics can do better - as you already well know. The broker may not be able to change any rules, but they do have the ability to try as hard as possible to get every discount possible. Even if you don't succeed in reducing your rate, this could generate some feedback to management to be more competitive, should I do the same. I'm preaching to the choir, but check this out...

I have both insurance types, one Tesla on Allstate, the other with Tesla. Although Tesla Insurance was cheaper on the 2nd vehicle, it's not so for ALL my vehicles. I get a 25% Home Bundle discount on at least one car with Allstate. And I actually have better coverage with Allstate (which paid out full replacement cost of our Model Y. I'm not sure if that's avail with Tesla). Further, if I don't change vehicles, nothing changes with my rates (due to the accident). As long as the Home rate is competitive, they can insure one vehcile, for now anyway.

 

[Captkerosene]

Small town. The broker will be incentivized to keep my business. He’ll do the most he can within the parameters he has from the insurance company.

I understand the sarcasm. But I’m an ideal client. Four policies, about to be a fifth, and I don’t make claims. It’s literally free money for them year after year.

The best day of owning a business is when you first realize that you can fire customers.