Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

You mean some like Hurricane Sandy?? Unfortunately I am afraid it will take more than one or even 3

Imagine changes in climate (previously called global warming) combined with natural variation in weather patterns resulted in flooding of 1/3 of a country-- well it did in Pakistan.

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, few governments have the courage to set a close firm date to stop ICE sales.

Norway is the only major example but if they had an existing car industry it works have been more difficult for them to do so.
Similarly part of the reason for China to stop ICE sales as quickly as possible is to give Chinese EVs the opportunity to take the market.

I don’t see other major countries doing the same.

Fortunately, price, performance, and convenience of BEVs will put ICE in the history books without any greater pressure from legislation.

Very likely quicker than any government would be able to do anyway.

 

[Ellec]

Fortunately, price, performance, and convenience of BEVs will put ICE in the history books without any greater pressure from legislation.

Very likely quicker than any government would be able to do anyway.

Yes I agree, to illustrate this why is Model Y the best selling car in the world, now! well before any legislation is having a forcing effect?

 

[Kenypowa]

If these new, more affordable models are coming in the next 6-18 months, why would anyone buy a 3 or Y? And why hasn't Tesla started taking deposits for the new models?

Ron Baron is always a great interview.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783488993159422031

And Ron Baron said SpaceX (or Starlink) IPO in 2027? That's the biggest news in the interview, on top of all the bullishness in Tesla and Spacex.

 

[mongo]

3. For sure, magical cost and capex decline by mass quantities ,Conehead style, but felicitous.

I'm hoping "magical" was autocarrot messing up "marginal" and not snark...

Ok, different motor makes sense.

And certainly, the battery impacts power delivery, but the fact that it makes more torque despite HP=TQ/5252 implies there's a difference in the performance curve dependant on RPM which the battery isn't a factor in.

In other words: if it were the same motor/inverter, the HP would be greater if the torque was.

HP=TQ*RPM/5252. Motor construction, gear ratio, and inverter max current set max torque at the wheels.

Peak torque = peak_stator_current * torque_per_amp.
0 RPM gives max possible torque due to no back EMF to deal with and the battery power is near zero at that operating point due to no work being done.

 

[cliff harris]

On the banning of ICE cars:
UK was planning a ban on cars by 2030, but its now 2035. However, that may change as we have an election this year and the almost certain-to-be new government is much more pro-EV.
The EU voted for a ban on ICE cars for 2035.

MEPs voted to require carmakers to cut their average fleet emissions by 15% in 2025, compared to 2021, by 55% in 2030, and by 100% in 2035.

China:

China aims to phase out conventional internal combustion (ICE) engine car sales by 2035, with its car market to be split evenly between new energy vehicles (NEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).

Also worth noting that cities might move faster than countries. London now has an Ultra-low-emissions-zone. Its not universally popular, but its in place, with cameras to detect offenders. I think we will see a lot more of this over time. There are 7 other UK cities with clear air zones.

As of September 2022, the minimum emissions standards are Euro 4 for petrol vehicles and Euro 6 for diesels. The daily ULEZ charge is £12.50

 

[Opus BC fan]

We are looking very bullish today (considering today's macros and yesterday's rise)

 

[mars_or_bust]

The spy pics you see are often "meant" to be seen, and yes, this has been going on for decades (including the "Highland" leak IMO). How many Model Y spy pics did you see before debut? Tesla has been producing Model 3 Performances for about a month in China, did Tesla start taking orders for them last month for it? Maybe this is Tesla finally growing up, and a new way of doing things. Lets hope, I do believe the long CT gestation taught Elon a lesson. Have the product ready, or near ready before debuting.

If this is a new car on the Y platform, the engineering started last year. In the car business many projects are studied but never green-lighted. The idea of building new cars off the Y platform is not new. We were shocked that there was a Gen 3 platform, until then we assumed new products would be a variation of the Y platform. Years ago, there was a strong rumor of the Model S shifting to the 3/Y platform. Never happened but I bet Franz has a file of designs and engineering data if needed.

Too many people are taking the events mentioned in the Biography of Elon book literally. Was the writer at the "other" meeting where this decision was made? This decision could have been made right in front of the writer but was engineering ignorant to recognize what Elon, Lars, and Franz were saying.

A counterpoint is the original Cybertruck reveal. Nobody had any idea whatsoever what it would be like. Granted, it took years for the final version to come out, for many different reasons, but the surprise reveal was of a fully working prototype.

 

[hobbes]

I just realized Lars Moravy actually speaks german - here he explains that new M3P is focused on handling and lacks cooling for long Nurburgring turns, more focus on street performance...

Nice review. Seems like they like the car (although this is not really an independent review, the video says "Werbung"=ad in the corner, likely because they probably got the trip to LA sponsored) but the only thing that kind of stands out as a slight negative to them is the brake starting to heat up during their drive; road feel better than before but not quite up to BMW or Porsche (wonder if that could be placebo effect..). Very good value in their opinion.

Just funny that this car guy has no idea about the different autopilot features, he mixes up the regular EAP with FSD... Seems like a missed chance on Tesla´s side, when they give every new customer a FSD test ride they should do it for those guys, too!

 

[FreqFlyer]

This is Kia's in Q1. Don't think Tesla needs to be focused here hardly anyone buying them

View attachment 1041537

We will see what Q2 looks like, Kia just dropped the EV9 price by $7500.

If one subscribes to the thought ICEs are competition, add up the sales of the Toyota Grand Highlander, Highlander, Ford Explorer, Chevy Traverse, and Honda Pilot, all three-row CUVs. Why would not go for that low-hanging fruit when Tesla has the platform and production capacity to make a sizeable dent in that segment? Give the suburban moms what they want.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

We are looking very bullish today (considering today's macros and yesterday's rise)

Based on what we have endured for the first 4 months of 2024, i hope this carries on for a while.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I feel like every time I see the stock turn green on the minute, someone in New York just discovered FSD V12.

I need some whimsical saying... Something like "See a firefly, feel the magic!"

Hey Chat...

1. Engage Tesla FSD, set your destination to the stars!
2. Activate autopilot, steer towards your dreams!
3. As Tesla learns the road, you learn to explore!
4. With every update, a new journey begins!
5. Let Tesla lead the way, and adventure will follow!

 

[FreqFlyer]

We are looking very bullish today (considering today's macros and yesterday's rise)

164.28

+2.15 (+1.33%) 10:54 AM Central

Market down 600 points due to inflation concerns...............Impressive Tesla.

 

[KBF]

I think that's wishful thinking on our part. Here in Canada, the Liberal government may soon be booted out of office in no small part to it's rollout of a carbon tax. And the recent rise in favor of hybrids over EVs in the US is another example of citizens virtue-signaling they care about the environment... "just as long as I don't have to be the one paying for it." (Eco-NIMBY-ism)

Don't get me wrong: everyone here believes in Tesla's mission. But many general publics still don't want to actually make sacrifices towards a significant reduction in their impact on the climate (fewer holiday flights, anyone?)

Raising taxes to help our grandchildren live? Pfft. Let's kick that can down the road a little further, eh?

Virtue signalling is the right word to use - but I don't put that on "the general public" primarily - the elite here are far far worse... They kind of lead the way. If merely raising taxes was enough to secure our descendents' futures, I'd be happy to pay. But my taxes go to crony capitalism (freaking SNC Lavalin still gets gov't contracts), which is the absolute worst form of capitalism. When "consultants" make millions of government dollars for being connected to the right parties but contribute nothing, and when we make a big show of taxing oil and gas but then make exceptions to buy votes in one part of the country while at the same time give far more back in subsidies to those same companies making record profits, I'm just not willing to pretend that our taxes are helping anyone but those in power and their friends. It's been one big virtue signalling show for over a decade now. In 2022 our dear leader spent 20+ times more jet fuel emissions in one month than the average Canadian's annual rate for all emissions (including heating, electricity and transportation).

I started investing in Tesla because of the vision (and expected to lose 100% of my investment in the early years), but I remain invested because they look at sustainability in multiple ways - and fiscal responsibility is absolutely one key component. They don't just throw millions at problems, but they continually look for ways to reduce expenses while hopefully improving products over the long run (and are willing to take short term hits - which many consumers don't like - I get it, it's a tough model to force clients to have patience). They're not perfect, but there is an effort and direction that I appreciate.

Edit: I'm not opposed to carbon tax in principle, but I'm opposed to the way it's being implemented in Canada, as a sleight of hand to pretend to address climate change when we're still literally giving handouts to the polluters.

 

[jerry33]

I think this may be a smart idea - many similar components with the Y, including the front rear castings would not change, just a longer chassis.

If they ever did this, I would expect it to replace the Model X (no point having both) - and assuming they either drop the Model S, or make a new S from a stretched Model 3 chassis, would mean the floor space for the current S/X line could then be cleared to make way for new unboxed production line in Fremont.

There are plenty of reasons to have an X, ease of entry being the biggest one.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What "metric" was reported this am?
All my watched stocks took a tumble.

PPI came in hot, market now pricing in only one rate cut for 2024:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783491635206103444

 

[Doggydogworld]

Yeah, few governments have the courage to set a close firm date to stop ICE sales.

Norway is the only major example but if they had an existing car industry it would have been more difficult for them to do so.
Similarly part of the reason for China to stop ICE sales as quickly as possible is to give Chinese EVs the opportunity to take the market.

I don’t see other major countries doing the same.

Yes, China wants to beat Japan, Korea and the West as the third world's preferred auto supplier. But the main motivation behind China's EV push is to eliminate oil imports. They don't need 100% EV sales for that, but do need >50%. It's not about climate, just economics and geopolitics. Often they're just replacing imported oil with domestic coal, but they see that as a huge win.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And Ron Baron said SpaceX (or Starlink) IPO in 2027? That's the biggest news in the interview, on top of all the bullishness in Tesla and Spacex.

Good, Elon will need the cash to buy his stock options. And pay his income taxes without selling TSLA shares.

 

[MD70]

We will see what Q2 looks like, Kia just dropped the EV9 price by $7500.

If one subscribes to the thought ICEs are competition, add up the sales of the Toyota Grand Highlander, Highlander, Ford Explorer, Chevy Traverse, and Honda Pilot, all three-row CUVs. Why would not go for that low-hanging fruit when Tesla has the platform and production capacity to make a sizeable dent in that segment? Give the suburban moms what they want.

Exactly. I think it’s such a huge missed opportunity not going for other segments. Anything tesla makes will easily take a sizeable share of the market.

 

[scaesare]

I'm hoping "magical" was autocarrot messing up "marginal" and not snark...


HP=TQ*RPM/5252. Motor construction, gear ratio, and inverter max current set max torque at the wheels.

Peak torque = peak_stator_current * torque_per_amp.
0 RPM gives max possible torque due to no back EMF to deal with and the battery power is near zero at that operating point due to no work being done.

Whoops, dropped a term, thanks @mongo...