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My goodness, everyone here is so sensitive. You guys do realize I get like 17+ quoted notifications every time I log in, right? I simply don't have time to address every single one. If you want a specific answer send me a PM.

The question of cannibalization or the Osborne Effect is hard to prove, because a different reality would have occurred if the company did something different. Model 3 wasn't even fully ramped on 2019 so looking solely at total unts sold isn't prudent, imo. Tesla also continued changing the pricing on Model 3 throughout the last several years as well.

Seems like when Tesla doesn't announce something it's considered "smart" because they aren't "Osborning themselves" but when they do announce something (like the vague new, low-cost models) that concern is simply ignored.

It's which you opt respond to (vs. not) that is telling.
 
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Meh - 3,1 instead of 3,4 for the 2019 M3P (0-100kmh)

But why get we EU people less power?

Less HP, yet more torque...

Folks speculating it's the battery... that would be odd if so and it's the same motor, given that HP is derived from torque & RPM, and the battery shouldn't care about RPM (that's a motor/inverter thing)...
 
Less HP, yet more torque...

Folks speculating it's the battery... that would be odd if so and it's the same motor, given that HP is derived from torque & RPM, and the battery shouldn't care about RPM (that's a motor/inverter thing)...
According to those in the M3P thread, it's not the same motor and the battery absolutely can impact power. Elon said it when they chose the 18650 for the MS/X refresh. I'm sure someone like @GhostSkater has more insight.
 
In central NC (just west of Chapel Hill) yesterday, enroute to Raleigh
 

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According to those in the M3P thread, it's not the same motor and the battery absolutely can impact power. Elon said it when they chose the 18650 for the MS/X refresh. I'm sure someone like @GhostSkater has more insight.
Ok, different motor makes sense.

And certainly, the battery impacts power delivery, but the fact that it makes more torque despite HP=TQ/5252 implies there's a difference in the performance curve dependant on RPM which the battery isn't a factor in.

In other words: if it were the same motor/inverter, the HP would be greater if the torque was.
 
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That's a very good point. Even for minor refreshes you start seeing camouflaged cars 1-2 years before release.

It was vague because it was a half baked idea to try to save the stock since it was the worst performing in the S&P 500 this year outside of Boeing. Elon was asked directly for more details and he punted.

If they were planning on new models this year we'd have reports of prototype testing. There have been none. It can take up to a year for regulatory approval for a new model in the U.S. they could share details if that process has started. They didn't. If new models were coming this year don't you think they'd be taking customer deposits?

When they don't deliver anything new this year people will say "oh, that's Elon Time, being optimistic" when it's plainly obvious it's not going to happen from the moment it was announced.
The spy pics you see are often "meant" to be seen, and yes, this has been going on for decades (including the "Highland" leak IMO). How many Model Y spy pics did you see before debut? Tesla has been producing Model 3 Performances for about a month in China, did Tesla start taking orders for them last month for it? Maybe this is Tesla finally growing up, and a new way of doing things. Lets hope, I do believe the long CT gestation taught Elon a lesson. Have the product ready, or near ready before debuting.

If this is a new car on the Y platform, the engineering started last year. In the car business many projects are studied but never green-lighted. The idea of building new cars off the Y platform is not new. We were shocked that there was a Gen 3 platform, until then we assumed new products would be a variation of the Y platform. Years ago, there was a strong rumor of the Model S shifting to the 3/Y platform. Never happened but I bet Franz has a file of designs and engineering data if needed.

Too many people are taking the events mentioned in the Biography of Elon book literally. Was the writer at the "other" meeting where this decision was made? This decision could have been made right in front of the writer but was engineering ignorant to recognize what Elon, Lars, and Franz were saying.
 
Meh - 3,1 instead of 3,4 for the 2019 M3P (0-100kmh)

But why get we EU people less power?

Oh, you poor Germans. Everybody will coal roll on you with that pitiful 3,4 second.

I just realized Lars Moravy actually speaks german - here he explains that new M3P is focused on handling and lacks cooling for long Nurburgring turns, more focus on street performance...
With Moravy, I expect that he speaks Spanish once they get to Nuevo Leon. Seriously. That dude is the GOAT.
 
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I have a theory about what is going on with the affordable compact Tesla car. For arguments sake lets call this car the Model 2, or the M2. Even though we know that will not be the name its easy and convenient to call it that (for now).

We now know a hybrid version of the M2 is coming, a mix of the current Gen2 designs (M3 & MY) and the upcoming unboxed design (the RT and what was going to be the M2). Lets call this hybrid design the Model 2.5, or M2.5.

Tesla said the release timeline of the affordable car has been accelerated. Before it was slated to release late 2025, so this new M2.5 will likely go into production in early 2025. But it won't be the new unboxed production line, its going to be made on existing M3 & MY lines alongside Gen2 cars, yet it will have some design qualities of what was going to be the unboxed M2.

My theory is this new M2.5 will release alongside the Juniper refreshed MY and both versions will have qualities of the unboxed design (RT). For example, steer by wire and 48v architecture, things which the CT also adopted from the unboxed design.

My hunch is the M2.5 will be a downgraded version of the MY+, with differences like these possibly:

- MY+ has new ventilated seats, M2.5 does not
- MY+ keeps heated seats and steering wheel, M2.5 does not have them
- MY+ has rear passenger LCD screen like the M3+ has now, M2.5 would not
- MY+ keeps the current motors or maybe even upgraded motors, M2.5 has lower power and cheaper motors and is slower
- In face M2.5 might come RWD only with one motor
- MY+ keeps current 82kWh battery pack and range, M2.5 has slightly smaller LFP pack with less range, maybe 220 to 250 miles
- MY+ has the interior light strips the CT and M3+ have now, M2.5 does not
- MY+ keeps powered liftgate, M2.5 has manual liftgate

This is what I think we might be seeing. A downgraded MY to fill the affordable car gap in the lineup. Rather than spend the money to build the true M2 on the new unboxed line in Austin they've decided to build a new cheaper version of the MY on the future Juniper MY lines as a new variant, to sell at a much reduced price. I also think we'll see a similar reduced M3 version on the Highland M3 lines too, with similar changes as I listed above.

This approach both utilizes existing lines to expand production higher, while also allowing the new Gen3 unboxed production line to be dedicated 100% to RT's, one model only, no variations, thereby greatly simplifying RT production and reducing costs.

Part of my thinking here is I do feel its unrealistic to expect Tesla to build a new unboxed design on the existing M3 & MY lines, these just aren't compatible manufacturing processes. I also don't think they've designed an entirely new hybrid unboxed / old car design in such a short timeframe. I feel its much more realistic we'll see them use current M3 & MY designs to downgrade into cheaper variants instead, especially given how soon this new M2.5 is expected to go into production.

Just my two cents. We'll know in a year or so for certain. 😎
I am expecting a smaller car. A smaller Model Y like vehicle has been rumored all along. Would make sense to debut it next to Juniper Model Y with the key difference being size. Its what Europe and ASEAN markets have been clamoring for.

You can build different size vehicles on the same line.


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People are concentrating on the cheaper car but what about the other new vehicles. I am expecting a more affordable true 3 row vehicle based on a stretched on Y platform. Kia's EV9 will soon be joined by Hyundai's version. Toyota has announced the next gen Highlander will be all EV. And Honda has plans for a 3 row in by 2027. Ford pushed back its 3 row vehicle debut to 2027.

And no, the present Model X is not the answer.
 
I think that's wishful thinking on our part. Here in Canada, the Liberal government may soon be booted out of office in no small part to it's rollout of a carbon tax. And the recent rise in favor of hybrids over EVs in the US is another example of citizens virtue-signaling they care about the environment... "just as long as I don't have to be the one paying for it." (Eco-NIMBY-ism)

Don't get me wrong: everyone here believes in Tesla's mission. But many general publics still don't want to actually make sacrifices towards a significant reduction in their impact on the climate (fewer holiday flights, anyone?)

Raising taxes to help our grandchildren live? Pfft. Let's kick that can down the road a little further, eh?
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Yeah, few governments have the courage to set a close firm date to stop ICE sales.

Norway is the only major example but if they had an existing car industry it would have been more difficult for them to do so.
Similarly part of the reason for China to stop ICE sales as quickly as possible is to give Chinese EVs the opportunity to take the market.

I don’t see other major countries doing the same.
 
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People are concentrating on the cheaper car but what about the other new vehicles. I am expecting a more affordable true 3 row vehicle based on a stretched on Y platform. Kia's EV9 will soon be joined by Hyundai's version. Toyota has announced the next gen Highlander will be all EV. And Honda has plans for a 3 row in by 2027. Ford pushed back its 3 row vehicle debut to 2027.

And no, the present Model X is not the answer.

This is Kia's in Q1. Don't think Tesla needs to be focused here hardly anyone buying them

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People are concentrating on the cheaper car but what about the other new vehicles. I am expecting a more affordable true 3 row vehicle based on a stretched on Y platform.
I think this may be a smart idea - many similar components with the Y, including the front rear castings would not change, just a longer chassis.

If they ever did this, I would expect it to replace the Model X (no point having both) - and assuming they either drop the Model S, or make a new S from a stretched Model 3 chassis, would mean the floor space for the current S/X line could then be cleared to make way for new unboxed production line in Fremont.
 
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According to those in the M3P thread, it's not the same motor and the battery absolutely can impact power. Elon said it when they chose the 18650 for the MS/X refresh. I'm sure someone like @GhostSkater has more insight.
This is the best M3P review I’ve seen yet. I gotta think this will generate more interest in Model 3s overall. Honestly the M3P is a steal at this price.

 
Ok, different motor makes sense.

And certainly, the battery impacts power delivery, but the fact that it makes more torque despite HP=TQ/5252 implies there's a difference in the performance curve dependant on RPM which the battery isn't a factor in.

In other words: if it were the same motor/inverter, the HP would be greater if the torque was.

Another possibility is there are new components (battery assembly?) in the EU version that need testing confirmation before a software update releases moar power.
 
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