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Don't you think that the slower delivers is because production switched to NA at end of Q (March), and only switched back to EU in the last week of March, and transport means that the new stock is likely just arriving about now?


That would make perfect sense if deliveries dropped to near-zero levels, but they keep delivering every single day. I think that means that they have to wait for orders before they can deliver cars.

As for ships arriving in Europe, I think this is the most up-to-date information: Tesla Carriers
 
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The presentation gave us some very, very strong indications of what they're working on now. They have a long way to go. They're still working on relatively "easy" stuff.

Well, given that caveat, yes! But how about the problems which human drivers have trouble with? I've named several, Karen has named others. There are solutions to these, and if we want robotaxis to be conclusively better than human drivers, we have to solve them too.

You still get the data and train the NN, but you have to know what you're trying to train it to do.

I could train an NN to be a stereotypical teenage driver. Or a stereotypical Boston driver. Or a stereotypical New Jersey driver. Or a stereotypical Florida driver. Or a really bad driver like the guy who chopped his own head off. I don't think any of this would be desirable. It would be relatively easy to do, and I personally suspect this is what Uber is doing, given that they're Uber ;-)
I don't think we can accurately estimate where they're at on the software side based on this presentation, outside of them really liking/using neural networks and designing an ASIC for them. On the software side, they can move/factor functionality between NNs and declarative and/or imperative software components however they like. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

My guess is they still have a ways to go because no one has effectively done what they're trying to do, but who knows really. As someone who also has a undergrad degree in Math/EE and works in software dev, I think the only thing we can conclusively say is that absence of absinthe may be evidence of abstinence.

:p
 
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I can't think of any quarter in recent Tesla history where the company didn't make major strides in at least one significant area.
Q1 ‘18 was pretty underwhelming as well. They did have 110% y/y growth. Started installing their custom made 21 tops asic. Produced as many model 3’s as was physically possible due to cell constraints.

Sentiment has truly reached bottom around here.

Does Q1 leave much to be desired, sure. Did I hope/expect better? Yes. Does this discount their achievements, sure as hell better not.
 
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This community is happy to lash out at V8 powered pickup trucks and its drivers, but carrying twice the battery you realistically need, that's cool, even if it a needless sucker push to the environment? Might as well go rough up some orphans and disabled people.
Just a little futher and you can invoke Godwin's law!

In any case, thanks for letting me off the hook by publicly demonstrating that trying to have reasonable discussion with you is pointless. Enjoy your 15kWh pack cars...
 
Please support this assertion.

While "need" is subjective. there is a significant (likely majority) of folks who drive more than 100 miles on regular occasions (or drive in the cold where that evvective range is 60 miles). They "need" to not have to stop every hour to charge.


Goalpost moving. Please address the issues pointed out in your original assertions before moving on.


The Taycan is ~90kWh. I thought you were advocating small packs as larger aren't needed as a result of fast charging?


Nobody is suggesting that a car that's less efficient or that lacks serious fast charging is at a disadvantage.

You are asserting that fast charging obviates the need for decent sized packs. That's not true if you don't want to stop and charge for every hour on a road trip.


You keep asserting that while ignoring the argument against it. Hint: see above.


A 50KW model S will get you 185+ miles range. That's about where the 60kWh packs used to be. They didn't sell nearly as the next step up. The fact that it turns in to a 120 mile car in the cold may be one reason why.
You're making this as hard as possible, why?

You mean that the SC network does NOT improve long distance travel and Tesla drivers NEED a large battery, even if LEAF drivers do fine on 40 kWh and would never go back to petrol?
Unionize, get politicians to place more fast chargers if they're not enough even for Teslas with huge range.

Many Tesla are in multi-car house holds. Does every car need to be a long range one?

Many BEV lovers have a problem accepting that every kWh comes from anywhere else but angels' kisses. We can debate which amount of energy and CO2 we wish to use to produce one kWh of extra cells, but surely as reasonable people we can agree that a needlessly large battery add pollution much like a needlessly large or inefficient ICE does?

Taycan shows 4C. A single motor car with half that battery, more range than a best selling 40 kWh LEAF, can be pretty affordable and charge at 720 mph. Not good enough?

Do you feel what the world needs is bigger batteries in all cars before be add more charger to be use by many cars to make the suffice on have the battery? What's the CO2 impact of a charger versus the cars it's servicing?

>You are asserting that fast charging obviates the need for decent sized packs.
>That's not true if you don't want to stop and charge for every hour on a road trip.
Then your love for Mother Earth is less than mine.

You keep using the word asserting, but it doesn't really help for reading comprehension. You seem uncomfortable that you few times a few need to not skip a charger is worse than adding 20 kWh to the global fleet the Earth nor you, really needs.

When Tesla hit the scene, these boards were all about telling the ICEV holdouts about how you don't need a full tank and stopping once in a while is good, they are not that long, few drives per year ever use half their tank. Once Tesla makes 370 mile 200 kW cars, that goal posts shifts over, a lot.

Perhaps you are just the exception, not the rule in this community.
 
Huh... you’re not showing the blue SR+ in SF?
Tesla doesn't show all inventory to all people at all times, even in a given region. You can't get more than a vague feeling of inventory by looking at their web site. At risk of being perma-banned for using the D word, here's the Model 3 demand signals I've seen this year.

- 1/2 $2k price drop (to counter reduced demand from tax credit stepdown)
- 1/30 Total delivery guidance of 360-400k implies 290-310k Model 3
- 2/5 $1.1k price drop
- 2/28 SR opened for ordering in US (estimate on 1/30 was 4-6 months)
- 2/28 $3k price drop (later partially reversed)
- 4/3 Ended Q1 with 11-12k unsold Model 3s in inventory (plus 8-9k in transit = 20k total inventory)
- 4/3 Delivery guidance still at 290-310k Model 3s
- 4/12 SR+ opened for ordering in Europe

I strongly doubt they shipped any unsold Model 3s to Europe, but it seems they shipped a lot to China just in case the tariff stepped back up on 4/1. They sent 8 ships each to China and Europe but only delivered ~7k Model 3s in China vs. 20k in Europe.

One further "maybe" signal is the lack of a Model Y production announcement, or any Y-related activity at GF1. I suspect they'll build Model Y in Fremont alongside Model 3 and supply Europe with 3/Y made in Shanghai. That'd save a ton of capex, which has been a key focus of late.

We'll get more signals this afternoon.
 
Here’s info on the group video chat I’ll be hosting in about an hour.

Topic: We’ll discuss the Q1 2019 TSLA Shareholder Letter prior to earnings call.

Time: Today (April 24) at 1pm PDT. Group video chat will last about an hour. We’ll hang out until Q1 shareholder letter is posted and discuss our thoughts.

Format: We’ll use Zoom which allows up to 100 people to participate. Everyone is free to to join. The group video chat might be recorded but depending on the quality of the video and discussion, I may or may not post the recording.

To join the group video chat, just go to this link:
https://zoom.us/j/388921101


If joining from a browser, it’s suggested that you use Chrome or else the audio won’t work. Update: Firefox reportedly works well too. Who knows, maybe Safari does too.
 
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Here’s info on the group video chat I’ll be hosting in about an hour.

Topic: We’ll discuss the Q1 2019 TSLA Shareholder Letter prior to earnings call.

Time: Today (April 24) at 1pm PDT. Group video chat will last about an hour. We’ll hang out until Q1 shareholder letter is posted and discuss our thoughts.

Format: We’ll use Zoom which allows up to 100 people to participate. Everyone is free to to join. The group video chat might be recorded but depending on the quality of the video and discussion, I may or may not post the recording.

To join the group video chat, just go to this link:
https://zoom.us/j/388921101


If joining from a browser, it’s suggested that you use Chrome or else the audio won’t work.

Firefox works great with Zoom (at least for me).
 
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That's why I asked the poster to qualify the question, and he meant Model 3 demand - which isn't demand constrained but supply constrained.

That Q1 S/X sales would drop sharply after the 75D pack was dropped was an unsurprising and expected outcome, given that 75D was about 55% of the S/X sales.

I projected that outcome in early January, if they didn't introduce a refresh in Q1 (which they didn't):



12.1k deliveries was the actual Q1 result.

But in any case the original poster was talking about Model 3 demand.


That's the problem with trying to multi-task. Can't keep up with the thread.

I suppose my point was that I can see why reasonable people (excluding those with a pre-determined agenda on both sides) can reach different conclusions on the "demand constrained" vs "production constrained" question.

It still comes down to credibility. If you believe that the explanations for many of the events this quarter make perfect sense and are actually part of a calculated strategy, you are more likely to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt and accept everything it says at face value. Conclusion: production constrained.

On the other hand, if your gut tells you that the company is starting to resemble the spin room after a political debate, you become more skeptical.

As with most things in life, time will tell.

PS They still make a great product. I just wish sometimes that it wasn't overshadowed by so much drama.
 
but surely as reasonable people we can agree that a needlessly large battery add pollution much like a needlessly large or inefficient ICE does?

I... don’t think we can agree to that, no. It depends where your power comes from. If you’re charging 100% from solar/wind, you can drive some crazymobile that runs at 10,000Wh/mile and you’re adding less pollution than a Model 3 SR that’s on 80% renewables.
 
Tesla doesn't show all inventory to all people at all times, even in a given region. You can't get more than a vague feeling of inventory by looking at their web site. At risk of being perma-banned for using the D word, here's the Model 3 demand signals I've seen this year.

- 1/2 $2k price drop (to counter reduced demand from tax credit stepdown)
- 1/30 Total delivery guidance of 360-400k implies 290-310k Model 3
- 2/5 $1.1k price drop
- 2/28 SR opened for ordering in US (estimate on 1/30 was 4-6 months)
- 2/28 $3k price drop (later partially reversed)
- 4/3 Ended Q1 with 11-12k unsold Model 3s in inventory (plus 8-9k in transit = 20k total inventory)
- 4/3 Delivery guidance still at 290-310k Model 3s
- 4/12 SR+ opened for ordering in Europe

I strongly doubt they shipped any unsold Model 3s to Europe, but it seems they shipped a lot to China just in case the tariff stepped back up on 4/1. They sent 8 ships each to China and Europe but only delivered ~7k Model 3s in China vs. 20k in Europe.

One further "maybe" signal is the lack of a Model Y production announcement, or any Y-related activity at GF1. I suspect they'll build Model Y in Fremont alongside Model 3 and supply Europe with 3/Y made in Shanghai. That'd save a ton of capex, which has been a key focus of late.

We'll get more signals this afternoon.

You’re missing a few price increases in there...
 
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6% degradation on my '13 P85 w/ 126K miles on it. It's been stable at that for ~2 years now. TBH, with the charger density around here, don't miss it.
About where my original B-pack was at about 83K miles when it failed, and my reman D-pack is at about 5%.

I use 265 miles as a starting range, as that's what was advertised even though the car showed more than that brand new, but that disappeared within the first month.
 
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You're making this as hard as possible, why?

You mean that the SC network does NOT improve long distance travel and Tesla drivers NEED a large battery, even if LEAF drivers do fine on 40 kWh and would never go back to petrol?.
I believe it's our different geographic locations and expectations that are the problems here. I recall years go when I lived in Vancouver, a VP from France came over and asked if he left at 10:00 would he make it Calgary by 13:00 or would he make it in time for lunch. Calgary is about 1,300 km away from Vancouver and the Rocky Mountains are between the two cities. Distances are large in North America. I also have a Leaf that Denise drives. It's fine to get her to work and back and to her friends' houses. It won't get her to the airport and back without charging. It wouldn't get me to work and back either without stopping to charge.