Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

Dear investors, I'm not in this for a quick buck. I'm not pumping the stock with promises that can't be met. I'm so confident I'll be the last one out. I'm for the mission of a sustainable future. I'm going to need this huge pay package for Mars and this won't even be enough money for that..... Oh nevermind, I'm going to dump on the market bc I need to go save free speech (1st amendment does that, foolish kool-aid drinkers) and buy this *sugar* company for $40B. GFY shareholders, I can pump the stock and break promises at will with no consequences, you peasants.

I find your flavor of pessimism entertaining; somehow this makes it more palatable to me. Thanks for the sarcasm/humor.

 

[MartinAustin]

Sorry to break in and interrupt the flow by talking about the stock... but $180 is a nice look... I wonder if resistance has given up for this week and we are now in the eye of the short hurricane?

(I know it's a macro up day... though honestly NASDAQ has been flat recently)

 

[Mike Ambler]

Hi @unk45,
I was wondering if you have seen any change (+ve or -ve) in the Ad buy Tesla stated making, that caused you to sell?
Given that i'm a fanboi and i do think EM is the most intelligent person in the room, i wonder if he sort of said to himself "they all want Ad buys... lets do Ad buys", but the value is so low that "I won't put too much effort into it.... after all best ads a no ads", following the best part no part logic....

Thanks, Mike

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800883928779415724

FLO-RIDA

 

[SOULPEDL]

Your regular helpful post on the dire threat to Tesla's FSD ambitions from the competition:

Waymo issues software and mapping recall after robotaxi crashes into a telephone pole

It’s the Google spinoff’s second-ever recall.

www.theverge.com

Imagine if FSD did this? It would be a breaking new special.

Meanwhile another $850million of GM's money thrown on the cruise bonfire:

GM pays robotaxi subsidiary Cruise 850 million dollars and builds fewer e-cars

After an accident involving an autonomous cab triggered a crisis at Cruise, GM wants to help its robotaxi division back on its feet with a cash injection.

www.heise.de

I'm not worried about FSD competition .

I heard Apple wants to have their customers stick their phones on the front bumper, with cameras facing forward. This new Crowd-Scraping approach pays the driver $5/hr through Apple Pay for driving around while connected. Their cameras are so good, and there are three, at least!

Bonus Buck if you use the front camera to also catch the driver's actions at the same time. Download the App today! /s

Take that Tesla FSD!

 

[aubreymcfato]

FWIW, after months, we have 4 consecutive days of +100 sales in Norway.

Tesla Registration Stats

General Tesla registration stats from DMV in Norway

teslastats.no

We probably won't reach June 23 levels but I'll take any good news now about EU sales.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Sorry to break in and interrupt the flow by talking about the stock... but $180 is a nice look... I wonder if resistance has given up for this week and we are now in the eye of the short hurricane?

(I know it's a macro up day... though honestly NASDAQ has been flat recently)

See what you did!

 

[Singuy]

Since TSLA fell from ATH, I am on wife #3 as well.

My wife is on her 3rd boyfriend since tsla fell from ATH

 

[Singuy]

Dear investors, I'm not in this for a quick buck. I'm not pumping the stock with promises that can't be met. I'm so confident I'll be the last one out. I'm for the mission of a sustainable future. I'm going to need this huge pay package for Mars and this won't even be enough money for that..... Oh nevermind, I'm going to dump on the market bc I need to go save free speech (1st amendment does that, foolish kool-aid drinkers) and buy this *sugar* company for $40B. GFY shareholders, I can pump the stock and break promises at will with no consequences, you peasants.

Glad you worked out the logistics like I asked with this gibberish you wrote.

 

[Waiting4M3]

FWIW, after months, we have 4 consecutive days of +100 sales in Norway.

Tesla Registration Stats

General Tesla registration stats from DMV in Norway

teslastats.no

We probably won't reach June 23 levels but I'll take any good news now about EU sales.

According to eu-evs.com, the 5 daily reporting countries are on pace to have maybe slightly over 15k sales in Q2, barring a big EOQ push (I doubt it since Tesla has only exported 47k out of China in Apr+May, vs the typical 60k, and only 17k in May). In each of the last 5 quarters, those 5 countries have accounted for at least 30.5% of all Europe LHD sales, and at most 33.8%, a very tight range. Say they will end up with 16k, and ~32% of total LHD sales, this puts Europe LHD Q2 total at ~50k.

UK is on pace for ~10k (eu-evs.com) with a typical EOQ push (may also be a stretch since above export stats)

I think we need to brace for how low Europe will be this quarter, 60k is a possibility.

 

[Mengy]

Yay!!! In a bear scenario, i.e. one where things go really badly, price target is USD 2,000. https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2029

What could possibly go wrong...?

ARK is usually overly optimistic with their projections.

Looking through their Bear Case numbers, I'd honestly say a lot of their projections line up well with my own. Where I disagree and feel they are overly optimistic is in the gross margin of 56% in 2029, I feel it will be MUCH lower than that due to price lowering to continue quick expansion and remain competitive, across the board of Tesla products (Elon has shown he is NOT shy cutting margins to low numbers). I also feel their projection of $603 billion in autonomous revenues by 2029 is ridiculously high too. Building and deploying a sizeable RT fleet will take time, its not going to happen quickly, and their number for 2029 is too optimistic IMHO.

I won't even address the Bull Case numbers because I think they are laughable. Maybe by 2039, but not 2029 in my opinion.

I think a good TSLA price projection for 2029 would be just a bit over $1000 per share, and that's given about 6 million cars produced/yr and a decent sized RT fleet deployed and earning money. I conservatively think $1200/shr for TSLA by 2030 is realistic too.

 

[GOVA]

Because that is how all other companies are? And the Tesla culture is solely founded on Musk, no other of the 140 000 employees matters in this respect? BTW, if I can get turn signal levers in my Tesla instead of the wheel buttons, I'd be very happy

Another option you have - create your own EV brand, put all the sugar in there you need and kill Tesla. You might go for rockets too once you on it.

 

[larmor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800883928779415724

FLO-RIDA

Probably not lost on Floridians is starship launches coming to Kennedy.

 

[AudubonB]

For full transparency- do you also own TMC? Care to answer?
Sorry its an intriguing question for me past few days because seems you have super mod powers and you are untouchable?

Thanks in advance

No. I do not and never have had any proprietary or financial interest in TMC. Its owners are generally referred to as Administrators.
As far as I know, there is but one who bears the monicker of Super Moderator and means that person can moderate any subforum. Most Mods look after one or a few sectors. The Investor Forum is my sector, plus some less-traveled sections.
Within the Investor Forum, it is this thread in which I take a special interest; I created it and its predecessor threads over ten years ago and have molded it to my thoughts of what should be included and in what ways conversation should proceed.
In recent years, I have had to limit my presence, both in my input and my moderating, as life has taken some unexpected twists.

 

[XPEL FTW]

This perspective is what has made many of us long term successful investors. Many of us who have been in that TSLA position since IPO but prior to Model 3 became a raging success (i.e. before 2019) have followed every development closely, including here on TMC and in this thread.

Nearly all who have been longer term successful have had their share of Duds too. I know I have had them, luckily I learned. Most of us have also done a share of derivative speculation. I've does that too, encourages by learning from a Nobel Prize winner, who I belived to have been THE oracle. That's before he went bust in spectacular earth shattering fashion, from failing to adhere to the master statistical rule of heuristics, "never exceed the boundary conditions fo your models".

That last part has led me to an obsessive effort to understand as much about every risk in every investment and try hard to define those critical factors that are most likely to be early warnings of rough terrain...as I have done with TSLA too, even disclosing my early warning factors that evinced a complete investment assessment.

Here on TMC, as elsewhere, deep understanding of risks sounds like pessimism or even FUD.
It really si not that, it is an effort to see more accurately the most probable future events, so try to influence investment decisions.

We really have several crucial elements that all TSLA investors should be acutely aware of and monitor diligently. perhaps not obvious is that the personal habits of any individual, including a CEO, are only relevant to the extent that they impede investment performance,
(In this respect morality and politics are only relevant to the extent that they enhance or detract from investment performance).

TMC Investor threads here have frequently devolved into frequent emotional statements that are based on personal political preferences and/or on professed expository statements that often illustrate lack of investigation or knowledge of accounting principles, analytic tools, including statistics (especially heuristics) and various other technical subjects. So, what should we do about that?

First, there are or have been, on this board people with very high knowledge and skills in practically any area we need to master. We should pay attention to them, They are usually obvious.
Second, there are some who opine on any are that pops up, with or without even basic understanding. Those people could ask questions and learn, before stating opinions that are based on nothing but imagination.
Third, There are quite a few people, including Moderators, who try hard to distinguish between the First and Second cases. We all should try to help.
Fourth, among those of us who have one or more skills of the first order are often people fo the second order on subject they know nothing about. They should opine in their skills areas and question in those for which they are not skilled.

Dong these things might, just might, reduce pressure on Moderators and help them to keep doing their jobs. It also would make it obvious where the FUD and trolls come from.

Quoting @TheAccountant is appropriate for he is the very definition of the First category.
Just above is @Papafox, another example of the first type. We would be better of if we followed their examples. Without question, I, too, should follow their advice more assiduously.

Good post.....he doesn't need (or probably want) me to vouch for him, but add @Doggydogworld to this list. I've followed him for ~25 years on a variety of boards. This guy knows Tesla inside and out and calls out bears AND bulls when they spew nonsense. Someone to pay close attention to.

 

[AndrewZ]

ARK is usually overly optimistic with their projections.

Looking through their Bear Case numbers, I'd honestly say a lot of their projections line up well with my own. Where I disagree and feel they are overly optimistic is in the gross margin of 56% in 2029, I feel it will be MUCH lower than that due to price lowering to continue quick expansion and remain competitive, across the board of Tesla products (Elon has shown he is NOT shy cutting margins to low numbers). I also feel their projection of $603 billion in autonomous revenues by 2029 is ridiculously high too. Building and deploying a sizeable RT fleet will take time, its not going to happen quickly, and their number for 2029 is too optimistic IMHO.

I won't even address the Bull Case numbers because I think they are laughable. Maybe by 2039, but not 2029 in my opinion.

I think a good TSLA price projection for 2029 would be just a bit over $1000 per share, and that's given about 6 million cars produced/yr and a decent sized RT fleet deployed and earning money. I conservatively think $1200/shr for TSLA by 2030 is realistic too.

Back in 2021, ARK’s bear case for next year was a $1.5trillion market cap and selling 5million vehicles per year — their 2025 bull case was $4trillion and 10million vehicles per year.

A mere $327billion in net autonomous ride hailing revenue next year, I think we’re still on track for that.


Getting that wrong is ok though, at least they were right to sell NVIDIA starting Nov 2022 and cashing out completely by January 2023 because you wouldn’t want them burdened by all those gains.

 

[Stretch2727]

Your regular helpful post on the dire threat to Tesla's FSD ambitions from the competition:

Waymo issues software and mapping recall after robotaxi crashes into a telephone pole

It’s the Google spinoff’s second-ever recall.

www.theverge.com

Imagine if FSD did this? It would be a breaking new special.

Meanwhile another $850million of GM's money thrown on the cruise bonfire:

GM pays robotaxi subsidiary Cruise 850 million dollars and builds fewer e-cars

After an accident involving an autonomous cab triggered a crisis at Cruise, GM wants to help its robotaxi division back on its feet with a cash injection.

www.heise.de

I'm not worried about FSD competition .

I had to chuckle at this.

"The update corrects an error in the software that “assigned a low damage score” to the telephone pole."

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800795601476747568

From the trenches, from people who worked with Elon

It's that kind of post that will keep Elon at Tesla.

 

[snellenr]

To run with the “captain at the helm analogy”…

Would you be happy with a ship’s captain who spent an inordinate amount of time and attention on things other than steering the ship? Who was preoccupied with buying and posting on a social app? Deciding who to go to war with next? Fauci and Apple being just recent examples.

Assuming he’s delegated the actual steering of the ship to others, it’s fair to ask what his actual job is, if he spends so much of his time away from the helm.

As an aside, I’m still primed and ready to sell a substantial portion of my shares if the stock price hits 160. But I’ll be keeping some - hope springs eternal and all that.

Elon hasn't been a "captain" for many years. He was "captain" at SpaceX when he founded it in 2002. However, when he bought into and became Chairman of Tesla in 2004, he effectively became an admiral over a "fleet" of companies (SpaceX & Tesla) with responsibilities to both - and that fleet has grown significantly over the years.

Although his flagship has been Tesla for much of that time, he has shifted his "flag" (I.e., direct oversight/involvement) between companies as circumstances required. It's nonsensical for anyone to complain that he does this - it's been the core of his work ethic for two decades.

 

[Usain]

Your regular helpful post on the dire threat to Tesla's FSD ambitions from the competition:

Waymo issues software and mapping recall after robotaxi crashes into a telephone pole

It’s the Google spinoff’s second-ever recall.

www.theverge.com

Imagine if FSD did this? It would be a breaking new special.

Meanwhile another $850million of GM's money thrown on the cruise bonfire:

GM pays robotaxi subsidiary Cruise 850 million dollars and builds fewer e-cars

After an accident involving an autonomous cab triggered a crisis at Cruise, GM wants to help its robotaxi division back on its feet with a cash injection.

www.heise.de

I'm not worried about FSD competition .

When Tesla starts its robotaxi service, things won't go perfectly. There will be mishaps.

But I'm not worried about competition either. I'm only worried about Tesla's FSD reaching its potential. If it does then it's game over.