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But by possible getting rid of phony claims, perhaps the premium can be made competitive without DDD? That would possibly turn things around and reflect well on the car brand.

The big risk in becoming an insurer (ignoring the significant capital that must be tied up in meeting liquid reserve mandates by each jurisdiction's regulatory regime) is the existential corporate exposure for satisfying bodily injury/wrongful death/ punitive damage awards. (which Tesla currently "self-insures."

Elon is a great risk taker/disruptor but it doesn't seem anyone internal to Tesla including him, his General Counsel nor the BoD appreciates the implications of embarking on this path
 
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I think white is the Y's best color:
gettyimages-1130614763.jpg

tesla-model-y--introduction-hawthorne-ca-march-2019_100695336_m.jpg


White with white interior probably looks like a SpaceX spaceship.
 
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Well, up until, what, yesterday? Absolutely everyone was still convinced Elon was full of it for saying that LiDAR was a waste of time.
Many of us outside Wall Street already knew LIDAR is a waste of time, including other experts who were quoted as far back as 2016 at least. Maybe I knew this because I live next door to Cornell?

Then Cornell figured out that, hey, normal cameras can work just fine for depth if they’re placed at the top of the windshield instead of near the bumper. Everything they found proved Elon absolutely right, down to where Tesla put their cameras on the car(I don’t believe they addressed B-pillar cameras, but give them time and they’ll figure out that lateral movement gives depth as well).
 
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The way he dismissed the presenter and overruled him. If it is like that in public broadcast, you can extrapolate a bit to see what it is like if we are back in Fremont where he is king of the hill and answer to no one else. Others have noticed the same little nuance.
Which presenter? I watched it but fast forwarded through some parts and may have missed it.
Frankly you sound overly sensitive. Did you also feel the same about Bill Gates and Steve Jobs (and many other leaders)? Driving quality and vision forward is not for the thin skinned. It takes a lot of tension inherently. Being nice will only get you so far.
 
It was a negative surprise on top of lowered expectations. A dumpster fire quarter TBH...
Compare that to 2018 Q1. That one one dumpstier and SP was higher afterwards.

Doesn't make sense. Tesla has come a long way, delivering on many promises(including SR), S/X upgrade, Y in the queue w equipment ordered and orders being taken, getting ready to ramp TE, GF3 is in progress, AP/FSD progress etc. Night and day comparison between 2018 and 2019.

On the cautionary side, wondering if anybody noticed lowered GF3 EOY projections from Elon yesterday? I see a lot of people still assume 3k/week by EOY.

Here's what was said yesterday:

Elon: Progress at the Shanghai Gigafactory is going extremely well. It looks like we’ll reach volume production at the end of this year at 1,000 cars per week, maybe 2,000. That’s what it looks like right now. We expect to have multiple cell suppliers for Shanghai Giga.
 
Listen...almost no one believes what Musk said. If people did the stock would probably double. I don't know if he is full of BS like when has said years ago that FSD was basically a solved problem, which was so far from the truth as to be laughable.

I believe more in his supporting cast in some ways than him on this topic. Especially karpathy. I believe that they would not stand there on stage while he says that and remain at company for much longer if it was total BS. They would leave as they would think he was full of it and they would not want to be associated with a pathological liar. There is not shortage of opps and $$$ for guys like Karpathy.

But stay they are and I think that's because they know things that you and I and the skeptics here do not...that this lather/rinse/repeat pipeline they have built to get to the 99999's is working and is now a proven methodology. AND they believe they will have enough annotated data in the stated timeline to enable FSD at least somewhere in the US. Even if its a carved out geospace in greater LA somewhere.

Apparently you are much more a believer than I am, if they can run taxi service in LA suburb, we will be looking at 1000 per share if people can really use it and there is no driver in the car.
 
Well, up until, what, yesterday? Absolutely everyone was still convinced Elon was full of it for saying that LiDAR was a waste of time. Then Cornel figured out that, hey, normal cameras can work just fine for depth if they’re placed at the top of the windshield instead of near the bumper. Everything they found proved Elon absolutely right, down to where Tesla put their cameras on the car(I don’t believe they addressed B-pillar cameras, but give them time and they’ll figure out that lateral movement gives depth as well).

@neroden FYI, “absolutely everyone” here is hyperbole for the supposed “experts” in the field, all other companies pursuing full autonomy, and the media. I’m aware that LiDAR being dumb was always obvious to you. ;)
 
I believe more in his supporting cast in some ways than him on this topic. Especially karpathy. I believe that they would not stand there on stage while he says that and remain at company for much longer if it was total BS.
I agree, but let's remember Karpathy was hired because he agrees with Musk on this. Nobody who thought LIDAR was worth exploring had a chance of getting the job.
 
I think a key benefit of Maxwell's technology is that the improved properties of the dry electrodes allow for new cathode and anode chemistries (with higher energy densities) which do not function adequately with wet electrodes. In particular I would guess the first generation of Maxwell electrodes would have similar cathode chemistries but allow for new anode chemistries.
Just be be clear, this is only a process change for creating the electrodes, the cell still uses electrolyte.


But what chemistry and form factor? If Maxwell used DBE to make electrodes for Solid Energy they could demonstrate 450 Wh/kg today. Can they demonstrate 300 Wh/kg using NCA in a 2170 can? I doubt it.

The most specific info I've found on DBE is in Maxwell's 10-K (emphasis mine):
Our dry battery electrode technology leverages our core dry electrode process technology currently used to manufacture ultracapacitors. This unique electrode manufacturing process expands our core technology into batteries of varying chemistry with value-added performance features over wet-coated electrode technology at a reduced production cost.​

They don't have a chemistry, their coating process adds value to various existing chemistries. What value do they add? .

Value-added benefits include reduction in system cost by simplifying electrode production, significantly reducing manufacturing facility requirements, enablement of broad-range material use, flexibility in electrode architecture for high specific energy design and accommodation of eco-friendly manufacturing.​

All good things, but mostly having to do with equipment cost, space requirements and environmental footprint. The only ways they improve energy density are with 1) thicker electrode ("electrode architecture") and 2) different materials (e.g. not NCA/graphite).

As I said originally, thick electrodes bring their own baggage and may not work in a 2170 can. The ability to use other materials is great. Whatever chemistry you use, Maxwell can probably coat your electrode substrates with it using less space and without nasty solvents. It's a "bring your own chemistry" model, though. Maxwell has not themselves developed a 300 Wh/kg chemistry.

Valid concerns: from Abstract: Electrochemical Performance of Dry Battery Electrode (233rd ECS Meeting (May 13-17, 2018))
Maxwell dry electrode manufacturing demonstrative benefits over conventional slurry wet coating process includes, (i)environmentally benign due to elimination of toxic solvent, (ii) lower cost by reducing capital and operating expenditures, resulting from elimination of solvent recovery and recycling system, (iii) improved energy and power density afforded by unique dense high loading electrode microstructures.

The paper calls out pouch cell, which are easier to hand assemble for testing. Since it supports roll to roll processing, I do not see why the 2170 cylindrical format would be an issue,
 
The big risk in becoming an insurer (ignoring the significant capital that must be tied up in meeting liquid reserve mandates by each jurisdiction's regulatory regime) is the existential corporate exposure for satisfying bodily injury/wrongful death/ punitive damage awards. (which Tesla currently "self-insures."

Elon is a great risk taker/disruptor but it doesn't seem anyone internal to Tesla including him, his General Counsel nor the BoD appreciates the implications of embarking on this path

Car insurance policies have caps on those items you mentioned. Otherwise the premium would be much higher.
 
Compare that to 2018 Q1. That one one dumpstier and SP was higher afterwards.

Doesn't make sense. Tesla has come a long way, delivering on many promises(including SR), S/X upgrade, Y in the queue w equipment ordered and orders being taken, getting ready to ramp TE, GF3 is in progress, AP/FSD progress etc. Night and day comparison between 2018 and 2019.

On the cautionary side, wondering if anybody noticed lowered GF3 EOY projections from Elon yesterday? I see a lot of people still assume 3k/week by EOY.

Here's what was said yesterday:

Elon: Progress at the Shanghai Gigafactory is going extremely well. It looks like we’ll reach volume production at the end of this year at 1,000 cars per week, maybe 2,000. That’s what it looks like right now. We expect to have multiple cell suppliers for Shanghai Giga.

We were expecting a bad Q1 in 2018, but just look at how bad 19Q1 looks in chart form(visible in the video preview image):

18Q1 at least had growth in revenue. 19Q1 is literally a step backwards into the bad old "production hell" days.
 
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IMHO, in light of the retooling for Raven, the new suspension, etc, the killing off of the 75Ds looks like a deliberate attempt to get them some line downtime at minimal cost to margins.

The new suspension system seems to be getting little air time, buried under the avalanche of earnings stories. But it’s a big deal, right? Isn’t this a first, a use of AI and machine learning to predict the lay of the road ahead and actively counter the bumps for the ultimate smooth ride? People who want the best will pay top dollar for that.
 
The new suspension system seems to be getting little air time, buried under the avalanche of earnings stories. But it’s a big deal, right? Isn’t this a first, a use of AI and machine learning to predict the lay of the road ahead and actively counter the bumps for the ultimate smooth ride? People who want the best will pay top dollar for that.

Feels like this was a side project of the "self-driving" team -- something where they could get results much quicker!