Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

If you do a little math, With end-of-Q1 cash at $2.2 billion, and Tesla delivering half their units in the last 10 days, Cash was probably down to only a few hundred million a little over a month ago.... Thank the lord they are getting rid of "the wave".

They likely also had their $1bn available revolving bank lines drawn over a month ago.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Guys let’s be honest or at least open to the idea that the Model Y, generally speaking, if you ask most ppl, does not look good.

I've heard people call the X a chode too. I mean you can either have a boxy SUV or a sloped one. SUV design doesn't have that many variations. I like sloped more than boxy but it's hard to deny that boxy has more interior cargo space.

 

[ZachF]

I've not heard that. And that's coming from the guy who got himself banned from a fan site (this one).

I think the Y looks good for a CUV.

The CUV architecture does not really lend itself to good looks though...

 

[EVNow]

Guys let’s be honest or at least open to the idea that the Model Y, generally speaking, if you ask most ppl, does not look good.

Projection ? At least acknowledge that people you talk to in your circle probably think like you and none of us can talk to a real random sample of people likely to buy Y ?

Of course i’ve not seen it in person. It looks like a bigger 3. I remember people not liking how X looked. Seems to have worked out well.

 

[neroden]

The wedge continues down. $240 is a pretty strong support. After that with enough pressure from the channel we will see $220 sometime. The stock will go back to the previous range bound channel before model 3 and we see $200 to $250. Discounting any benefit from model 3 for now.

By the way, I hope Elon is now more receptive to suggestions after being humbled by this.

Humbled? Honestly, if it hits $200 I fully expect Musk to leverage up and buy stock.

I think the InsideEVs April delivery numbers will probably be reviewed by enough traders to have some effect on the stock (positive or negative? depends on the numbers)

 

[Causalien]

Umm. They should have been doing that for everything instead of showing things that are 2-3 years out as if it’s a concept for something.

It was a left over artifact from back when it was still a startup. You need to drum up hype so you can raise more capital. Except now TSLA is evaluated as a mature company so this tactic doesn't work as well. Now that this quarter is so *sugar*, they might as well break the cycle and drop the act.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Maxwell has demonstrated 300Wh/kg, with a path to 500Wh/kg.

But what chemistry and form factor? If Maxwell used DBE to make electrodes for Solid Energy they could demonstrate 450 Wh/kg today. Can they demonstrate 300 Wh/kg using NCA in a 2170 can? I doubt it.

The most specific info I've found on DBE is in Maxwell's 10-K (emphasis mine):

Our dry battery electrode technology leverages our core dry electrode process technology currently used to manufacture ultracapacitors. This unique electrode manufacturing process expands our core technology into batteries of varying chemistry with value-added performance features over wet-coated electrode technology at a reduced production cost.​

They don't have a chemistry, their coating process adds value to various existing chemistries. What value do they add? .​

Value-added benefits include reduction in system cost by simplifying electrode production, significantly reducing manufacturing facility requirements, enablement of broad-range material use, flexibility in electrode architecture for high specific energy design and accommodation of eco-friendly manufacturing.​

All good things, but mostly having to do with equipment cost, space requirements and environmental footprint. The only ways they improve energy density are with 1) thicker electrode ("electrode architecture") and 2) different materials (e.g. not NCA/graphite).

As I said originally, thick electrodes bring their own baggage and may not work in a 2170 can. The ability to use other materials is great. Whatever chemistry you use, Maxwell can probably coat your electrode substrates with it using less space and without nasty solvents. It's a "bring your own chemistry" model, though. Maxwell has not themselves developed a 300 Wh/kg chemistry.

 

[uselesslogin]

I've heard people call the X a chode too. I mean you can either have a boxy SUV or a sloped one. SUV design doesn't have that many variations. I like sloped more than boxy but it's hard to deny that boxy has more interior cargo space.

Don't forget sloped means a lower CD. So the boxier design is a non-starter for Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

You know, I was just thinking - Tesla could stop making cars, rooves, power-packs, leaf-blowers altogether and focus all their resources on the Semi - one model, one colour, no options. Revenues and profits would go through the roof.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Guys let’s be honest or at least open to the idea that the Model Y, generally speaking, if you ask most ppl, does not look good.

Idk, both my wife and myself found it beautiful. Perhaps not as sleek/beautiful as a sports car, but far more so than any other SUV I’ve ever seen. Certainly more so than the e-Tron/iPace/what have you.

 

[neroden]

My understanding was that 10k/week in Fremont was based on 2 lines of 5k each.

Since then, they’ve gotten more speed so they can achieve 7k / week / line, plus they’ve moved up GF Shanghai.

*sigh* no, count the GA lines

Seems like a net positive to me?

 

[sparcs]

Guys let’s be honest or at least open to the idea that the Model Y, generally speaking, if you ask most ppl, does not look good.

Looks pretty solid to me considering most SUVs look like ugly minivans. A slightly upsized Model 3 with higher seating position is pretty much what you want.

Some people hate the Model 3 design too. Can't please everyone.

 

[bdy0627]

I mean I get the whole greedy when others are fearful thing and it makes sense here. I'll probably be buying something after a few days here. But, also, let's be clear. Warren Buffet would not touch Tesla with a 10 foot pole at this point.

Nor would he have touched Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, NFLX, etc. until the majority of their growth has already happened. It's just not his gig. Too much risk for his taste.

 

[Tslynk67]

Usually, people prefer the trade-in because they only have to pay sales tax on the difference between the trade-in and the purchase price of the new car. If one sells privately, one has to pay tax on full price of new car. (at least in Florida, it is this way)

This isn't an issue in Europe. In my case, and I suspect many others, the trade-in is just the least-hassle option.

 

[RFernatt]

I think the Y looks good for a CUV.

The CUV architecture does not really lend itself to good looks though...

Something closer to this render would have been received much better, admittedly at the cost of some range...

 

[ZachF]

Something closer to this render would have been received much better, admittedly at the cost of some range...

View attachment 400646

Eh, I like the actual Y much better than that one.

I think the biggest problem is that it just doesn't look good in blue... white looks nice though.

 

[neroden]

It's a trade-off as to whether normalized, steady-state deliveries is more cost efficient than paying the ABL interest on "inventory" cars in transit.

It's definitely more cost-efficient. The "wave" alternative costs about the same amount in interest -- you have 0 in transit end of quarter, but twice as many in transit mid-quarter. Think about it.

The only reasons to do the "wave" are (a) to make EOQ numbers look better to Wall Street, which is a bad reason, and (b) because you can't switch between regions on the production line smoothly, a problem which they have apparently solved now.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Yeah, this ER was clearly worse than expected by most. A negative surprise was not priced in. The drop was likely only 4% today because of how far TSLA has fallen since mid December and since the deliveries report.

This raid ain't over yet, in fact, it hasn't even started; watch new sell ratings hit TSLA *every single time* the SP tries to recover.

Predicting low 200s in the coming weeks and months.

 

[EVNow]

Looking at the P&L, one thing that stands out is how little the S&GA increased between Q1 18 and Q1 19, even though the number of vehicles delivered was up 3x. As they ramp up deliveries of 3 and Y, this will result in much better profitability.

 

[EVDRVN]

Guys let’s be honest or at least open to the idea that the Model Y, generally speaking, if you ask most ppl, does not look good.

You must be kidding. It tool me almost 3 seconds to come to that conclusion. However. dark wheels make most cars look lumpy, they really should have used lighter wheels on the reveal as it really changes the side look of the car and makes it more fluid. The dark large paddle wheels are the worst to showcase a body style and they detract from the design. I know some like the dark wheels but a stupid idea particularly in a dark room unless intentional-lol