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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
JusRelax
Active Member
At first I thought you said 8k shares....
ZachF
Active Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Might want to polish that ball a bit.
There's no reason to do it right now. They don't have to pay any debt during Q2 unlike Q4(240 million) and Q1(920 million). Giga 3 is being paid for through low interest Chinese loans. If you took out the 920 million debt payment in Q1, their cash balance didn't drop that much. They're already guiding for Q2 positive FCF. They even mentioned on the conf call that upcoming FSD individual features will start to be release in the coming months, allowing them to recognize deferred revenue(and mostly straight profit).
IF they were able to do something like you describe, a rights offering to only existing shareholders, I would be open to it. But not on the open market, Not for one second when they're guiding for positive FCF in 2 months.
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I bought 14 more shares @ $232 from the spare change in my sofa. Buying more with the loose change in my cup holders and door pockets if it hits $200.
Yep
yep it’s only accurate 80% of the time. Stupid 8 ball
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Elon was pretty clear that capital was not the issue and that just throwing more money at things will not solve any problems.
I set up a buy at $220 (instead of $230 because I'm both greedy and pessimistic), and it changed direction. You're welcome? 
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
No. the MM will try to pin closing price @ 235 at close.
Worse case, I will roll over to next wk. (backup plan) :}
JohnDinger
Member
Perhaps it's because this forum aggressively bans shorts and others?
Tesla just had an absolutely hideous quarter. Remember, the current valuation of Tesla was based on promises like:
- 10,000 Model 3s per week by December 2018 (at last financing round)
- 7,000 Model 3s per week by December 2018 (that was last August)
- No decline in S or X sales
- The 35k Model 3 would be a mass-market vehicle (debatable, but it's not what investors were expecting right now).
And the guidance isn't good, either. How is it that they will deliver a record number of cars and yet still not make a profit? What's the path to profitability?
On autonomous vehicles, I was impressed. But I also think Elon has lost all credibility on Elon time. And unlike electric vehicles, there are other experts in this field who have opinions that this is a very hard problem and will take a while.
And it's hard to refute these metrics: Waymo has 1 disengagement per 1000 autonomous miles driven in California during 2018. Tesla didn't register a single one in 2018.
As soon as Tesla can start putting real, meaningful autonomous driving on the road, the share price will skyrocket. As soon as they start doing marketing campaigns around it, or putting local news crews in autonomous cars (like Ford, Waymo, and Cruise), Tesla will start to regain its credibility.
But until then, investors are going to look at the same metrics most businesses are evaluated on: profit. And Tesla just got lambasted and doesn't look like they'll make a GAAP profit this year.
The cash position is also highly concerning. They have 2.2B, but 600M of that is stuck as collateral in the China factory. Another 400M is from the ABL increase in March. If you take those out, Tesla's cash has dropped precipitously.
Cash + Accounts Receivable is Less than Accounts Payable. That should be a huge red flag.
So they have 1.6B in cash today. Let's say they need a minimum of 500M to remain operationally solvent. That leaves 1.1B left. If the average car costs $38,000 to make (implied gross margin of 25% for M3), then they cannot afford to fall behind 30,000 cars in deliveries. That's concerning given that they're now shipping overseas.
I don't understand why Tesla hasn't started an equity raise. I mean, why didn't they just announce plans for fundraising at the investor day or the conference call? "Now might be the right time" is too soft.
he first step would be to go to an investment bank and find an underwriter. The investment bank would suspend coverage of the stock and start doing deep diligence on the company to give it a really good minimum underwritten price. The fact that all the investment banks are still covering the stock is concerning.
bdy0627
Active Member
No doubt that would do it. Normally a 10% drop after earnings wouldn't be that unusual for TSLA, but we are down about 40% from just 4 months ago. That's quite a bit. Pain levels are already much higher with this drop after earnings because of how much we've come down in just a few months.
well there’s people over in the quarterly earnings thread saying tesla is effectively bankrupt bc of the way they do their accounting with accts payable. let’s see. you’ve been around since 2007...hmm. how many times have you heard this type of story. how many trap-door oh *sugar* runs have there been since IPO? how many head snapping rallies?
this time doesn’t seem different to me. but i’m no expert.
I still think in the worst case Tesla can be sold to a larger company at $80~100B. I don't think Tesla will have to do that. I plan to hold through ups and downs.
I understand. But the underlying causes for the effectiveness of Technical Analysis are more than the fact that it is used by others. It can also be a measure of crowd psychology and indications that insiders might know something.
If your suggestion is to be followed, then members must really be encouraged to regularly visit the Technical Analysis thread.
Mod: members are encouraged to visit the Technical Analysis thread regularly. Post there too. --ggr.
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