Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Joe F]

$TSLA crossed above the 20 MA @ $257.05

POTUS needs to tweet more crap.

 

[sunhelm]

So, tell me what number you see:

420! Right after taking a vision enhancing stimulant.

 

[mongo]

To play the devil's advocate here, let me ask the question:
Did the Tesla really check to see that there was no vehicle coming at higher speed on that left lane before swerving into it, or did it just get lucky ???
Prior to the collision there were vehicles passing the car on the left lane...

I'm going with yes, it did. Just like NoA doesn't change lanes into cars.

 

[Joe F]

I'm going with yes, it did. Just like NoA doesn't change lanes into cars.

I feel that way, too. However, the driver seemed to be closing on the leading car too fast, considering one can see the long line of almost stopped cars on the exit ramp.

My take is they were not on AP at the time, and not being very defensive as they should have been slowing much sooner, possible enough to avoid being rear ended.

 

[Nocturnal]

Same here. Especially now that Wall Street is buying shares again.

I figured they were thinking like we were. "It's not going to go up anytime soon, so may as well see how low it can go"

Plus the capital raise. Makes me wonder if it's as much a sign that Elon is reasonable as it is an actual cash flow issue. "Ok, he's not nuts and was willing to raise capital, I feel better".

 

[Pezpunk]

Yahoo seems to have issues with word meanings:
View attachment 404611

i'm sure it's just an innocent coincidence that the headline exaggerated and misrepresented what was said about Tesla ... again.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

i'm sure it's just an innocent coincidence that the headline exaggerated and misrepresented what was said about the article.

FTFY.

Headline writing is the most soulless job in journalism.

 

[HG Wells]

FTFY.

Headline writing is the most soulless job in journalism.

No its not. It's the most rewarding !

Your Partner in Crime
Senior Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[Maitri982]

To play the devil's advocate here, let me ask the question:
Did the Tesla really check to see that there was no vehicle coming at higher speed on that left lane before swerving into it, or did it just get lucky ???
Prior to the collision there were vehicles passing the car on the left lane...

Exactly my thought. that maneuver could have gotten this driver killed in that case. would have been better just to rear end the car in front of him in that case. we will never know what its "thinking" was here. In fact, just to be terrible skeptic...how do I know the driver didn't steer into the left lane and say the tesla did it? Thats what the shorts would say.

 

[replicant]

I, sometimes, worry about Model 3 global demand for a few reasons:

• sedans are getting less popular, even in Europe
• the mainstream media, including car review websites and magazines, keep spreading FUD about the company and its product: "their cars burn, they even explode now", "bankruptcy any time soon", "the CEO lie all day, will he end up in jail?". Most of the good things they say come very late and with far less exposure that the FUD (cf. marketshares taken by Tesla from Mercedes/BMW...). Most car buyers still don't know that Tesla doesn't advertise and expect the media to say the truth about good cars/deals, so they sipl
  
• early adopters who like Tesla should (almost) all have considered or bought one by now
  
• not many young people have $40K to spend on cars, especially when Uber-like service are getting popular and when robotaxis are said to come in the next 2 years

Tesla is probably crossing the chasm with no support from the media (if not opposition/contempt) and some indirect anti-selling messages from Tesla's management (Elon says, between the lines, that the future of transportation is less about privately-owned cars and more about fleets operate by Tesla and available for a few cents per ride; they also decided to introduce FSD to investors instead to customers, which is quite telling). Personally, I'm long enough TSLA that I can buy a new Model 3 Performance today, but I won't simply because I'm convinced that they roam over my city in a few years.

So I'm worried a little bit, and I expect Tesla to

1. stop focusing on sedans when (re)designing their platforms. They should have started with the Y, not the 3 IMO.
   
2. design vehicles primarily for ride-sharing (I hope the Tesla Truck was early thought as a way to serve the pickup market but also minivans)
3. find a way to incentivize non-owners to support the company. Few people can afford to buy shares and that does not even help the company to develop the business, as most of the money goes to speculators who don't care about the mission. In the long term, Tesla would really benefit from being funded by individuals who are ready to risk $ in order to support be part of the mission and to get early access in the Tesla Network, instead of big banks / investors (who prefer Uber/Google b/c these tech companies don't want do manufacturing). Why buy a FSD car if I already know that I won't use it personally and ride Tesla-owned cars in the near future? Tesla can surely get my direct support without forcing me to buy a car I won't need. I'd much prefer buying credits for ride-sharing than by a car! It may be to early to think about this but being in the situation now, I guess this will become a problem a some point.

In the meantime, I keep looking at Google search trend for the Model 3 in California (early adopters market), the US (main market) and worldwide (late market).

The trend is not really good (but is it reliable?), as interest is decreasing in California and the US. In Germany too! So did we overestimate the demand for mid luxury sedans (cf. my first worry listed above). Perhaps people already know about the car and don't need to research it anymore? I doubt that given the few positive articles in the media and all the FUD.

I did find some positive trends (like interest for "Model 3 price", which goes up worldwide exponentially and should soon reach the level of April 2016, when the car was making headlines everywhere).

What non-anecdotal data source do you trust to estimate the demand for Tesla cars (at least until the company can make and deploy its own multi-million FSD fleet)?

I don't trust the mainstream media, because most Tesla mentions are about Musk-the-guy-who-tweets-jokes-and-lies, the overavalued stock price that must crash someday, cars that burn and expode... Social media are full of whores who either hype Tesla (for karma points, referalls, TSLA ultra-bullish-thesis, or just devotion to "Elon-we-love-You") or trash the company/stock (for the bear case, to try to save the dying-fossil-industry, or just hatred to Musk-the-Silicon-Valley-Guru). And I can't find analytics (like Google Trends) for Twitter/Facebook/Youtube so all the data points end up being not reliable. Talking to people I know does not really help because very few know anything about EV/Tesla, and they haven't changed their position for the past 5 years despite Tesla makings half a million cars).

Any suggestion?

 

[capster]

No its not. It's the most rewarding !

Your Partner in Crime
Senior Editor
Shortsville Times

Must be depressing sometimes:

Media Release: Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’ | IPBES

 

[neroden]

Smooth delivery requires less capital than the wave. Smooth delivery would vastly improve intra-quarter cash balances.

The EOQ numbers don't look as good with smooth delivery, however, which is why Tesla keeps backsliding into the wave despite promising to unwind it for over a year.

Due to another US tax credit expiration, I do expect a US rush at the end of the quarter in Q2. The wave will probably only be partly unwound in Q2 as a result. They'll probably do more unwinding in Q3.

 

[mongo]

I feel that way, too. However, the driver seemed to be closing on the leading car too fast, considering one can see the long line of almost stopped cars on the exit ramp.

My take is they were not on AP at the time, and not being very defensive as they should have been slowing much sooner, possible enough to avoid being rear ended.

Braking seemed reasonable to me, stopping faster would increase chance of collision. Driver says they were not on AP and the Cherokee was going ~ 40.

Autopilot wasn’t on though. I was in shock after the accident. I don’t remember swerving like that.

A grand Cherokee. Would not go into drive. I needed a tow. So did she. She was going like 40mph in the right repeater and left repeater I can see hit me pretty fast

 

[LST]

I, sometimes, worry about Model 3 global demand for a few reasons:

Any suggestion?

Nope, no need to

 

[neroden]

People have to calm down a bit here with the time lines.

Engineering, research and development simply does not work in a way where an insisting management can just magically make things happen faster by setting more ambitious time lines.

Everyone should read _The Mythical Man-Month_

 

[neroden]

It seems to me like nobody on the Autopilot team thinks FSD is as close as Musk does. Nobody is stating timelines but him.

Karpathy even appeared to wince when Musk started making his grandiose timeline claims.

And Karpathy doesn't even understand the full scope of the problem yet, because the cases he presented as "very unusual" are what I call "normal, everyday driving". In a couple of years they may start looking at the unusual cases.

 

[Freder Reeve]

Exactly my thought. that maneuver could have gotten this driver killed in that case. would have been better just to rear end the car in front of him in that case. we will never know what its "thinking" was here. In fact, just to be terrible skeptic...how do I know the driver didn't steer into the left lane and say the tesla did it? Thats what the shorts would say.

we know because we aren't idiots. Unlike a pathetic, stupid human, Hal is always aware of what is presently in that space, as well as what has the potential to be occupying that space.

 

[M3Rider]

So I'm worried a little bit, and I expect Tesla to

1. stop focusing on sedans when (re)designing their platforms. They should have started with the Y, not the 3 IMO.

Sedans have the best range / lowest cost and are therefore the best fit for robotaxis. Why should they focus on something else if the goal is TN?

I think 3s will be #1 choice for Tesla operated robotaxis and assuming no shortage of batteries, in the next 10 years it may be easier to buy S/X/Y for personal use than a 3. The 3s will generate most profit on TN.

 

[capster]

People have to calm down a bit here with the time lines.

Engineering, research and development simply does not work in a way where an insisting management can just magically make things happen faster by setting more ambitious time lines.

Yes, but...

The war analogy is apt: Tesla has been on a war footing for most if not all of their existence. Survival is a strong motivator.

And, not to put to fine a point on it, automotive innovation at the legacy OEM’s could hardly move slower.

Here’s an inside look:

 

[EVNow]

Headline writing is the most soulless job in journalism.

That's a decent headline.