Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[peopleweb]

Exactly my thought. that maneuver could have gotten this driver killed in that case. would have been better just to rear end the car in front of him in that case. we will never know what its "thinking" was here. In fact, just to be terrible skeptic...how do I know the driver didn't steer into the left lane and say the tesla did it? Thats what the shorts would say.

The vehicle should have a situation in which the lane is detected. Artificial intelligence will judge whether this avoidance is feasible, rather than avoiding it.

 

[Nocturnal]

The issue around Sedan demand is overblown. There is still a HUGE market for sedans in the US and worldwide. BMW alone sells around 100k 3 series cars just in the US. Toyota sells almost 200k Camrys, 140k accords, 90k ford fusions, 46k Prius etc. (ignoring cars with MSRP ranges lower than model 3s) If Tesla can steal another 10% in sales from BMW, Mercedes, Audi, etc. then that's far more demand than they could handle anytime in the near future. Yes the SUV market is bigger and growing, but still plenty of customers that may want a sedan.

 

[Unpilot]

Let me guess max pain is 255

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, but...

The war analogy is apt: Tesla has been on a war footing for most if not all of their existence. Survival is a strong motivator.

And, not to put to fine a point on it, automotive innovation at the legacy OEM’s could hardly move slower.

Here’s an inside look:

 

[EVNow]

OT :

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #52: Never ask when you can take.

The name Ferengi comes from "foreigner" in Arabic, apparently (Reply #27) - Democratic Underground

The name Ferengi comes from "foreigner" in Arabic, apparently. The term was used as a partially derogatory term in India to denote the British. Think of the business practices of the British East India Company and it is a perfect fit.

 

[peopleweb]

The issue around Sedan demand is overblown. There is still a HUGE market for sedans in the US and worldwide. BMW alone sells around 100k 3 series cars just in the US. Toyota sells almost 200k Camrys, 140k accords, 90k ford fusions, 46k Prius etc. (ignoring cars with MSRP ranges lower than model 3s) If Tesla can steal another 10% in sales from BMW, Mercedes, Audi, etc. then that's far more demand than they could handle anytime in the near future. Yes the SUV market is bigger and growing, but still plenty of customers that may want a sedan.

Tesla's sales volume is so small that there is no need to worry about industry demand.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I cannot express in words how much I despite the current POTUS

Can you try?

 

[Freder Reeve]

Let me guess max pain is 255

250

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Sedans have the best range / lowest cost and are therefore the best fit for robotaxis. Why should they focus on something else if the goal is TN?

I think 3s will be #1 choice for Tesla operated robotaxis and assuming no shortage of batteries, in the next 10 years it may be easier to buy S/X/Y for personal use than a 3. The 3s will generate most profit on TN.

Really good points, but given Robo Taxis aren't realistic for another 2 years (if you'r on Elon time) or 10 years (if you're in the AI business and know wtf you're talking about) it might have made sense to build the potentially better-seller first, and roll out the Model 3 in 2020, just in time for FSD (apparently).

Now I love the Model 3, it's exactly the electric car I wanted, minus the panel gaps, and I might not have been so enthusiastic about the Y. But it seems most 'Muricans love their small SUVs and the Y potentially could have had bigger initial demand and a much wider tail in the US than the '3 has had.

 

[Nocturnal]

Pretty sure I just sold a model Y this past weekend. Visiting family (minus the car) and showed my Dad and Step mom details on FSD and autopilot. She hates driving and is planning on getting a Y when they come out just for those features.

Can you try?

I don't think the English language can do any justice in that area. I'm baffled by this fans to be honest. Unless you just value "pwning the libs" or being mean to migrants, what is there to like? He fails in the areas where classical conservatives/republicans usually like. This trade war stuff is what I'd expect from some naïve anti-corporate type.

 

[Maitri982]

Karpathy even appeared to wince when Musk started making his grandiose timeline claims.

And Karpathy doesn't even understand the full scope of the problem yet, because the cases he presented as "very unusual" are what I call "normal, everyday driving". In a couple of years they may start looking at the unusual cases.

I understand your skepticism, but c'mon, i saw no "wincing" anywhere. I'll grant you that many of Musk claims from the past are wince worthy, and maybe this one will be too, but didn't see evidence at all of that from Karpathy and in fact he seemed quite enthused. If he totally thought Musk was full of it then IMO he would leave. There is no shortage of opps for one of the leading NN guys in the world.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla's sales volume is so small that there is no need to worry about industry demand.

True in the overall sense - but Model 3 volumes are actually quite good. It will be within top 20 sedans worldwide in 2019.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Any reason you posted this obvious trollish comment a mere matter of minutes after updating your profile to pretend you have a Model 3 Performance?

I think he meant that general industry trends are not likely to impact demand for Teslas, because what drives people to buy an EV might be different from the usual buy/sell cycle of a regular car.

Maybe I'm being too generous.

 

[DaveT]

I've been hearing the argument that nobody has a chance against Tesla w/autonomous driving because Tesla has so much data. But this doesn't mean others can't catch up.

Here's some more thoughts on this.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla's sales volume is so small that there is no need to worry about industry demand.

Any reason you posted this obvious trollish comment a mere matter of minutes after updating your profile to pretend you have a Model 3 Performance?

I don't see that comment as trollish at all. He is saying that compared to the total market for sedan sales the Tesla volume is small, which it is, so there is no need to worry about the total demand for sedans yet.

 

[Joe F]

Braking seemed reasonable to me, stopping faster would increase chance of collision. Driver says they were not on AP and the Cherokee was going ~ 40.

Slowing sooner, not stopping faster.

Heavy traffic, relatively blind exit ramp, and IMHO, closing too fast on slowing traffic for an exit ramp, the driver should have been slowing sooner.

With distracted driving on the rise, it's more important than ever to read the conditions ahead and react before those ahead of you, if only to control the flow behind you to avoid being rear ended.

 

[EVMeister]

I don't see that comment as trollish at all. He is saying that compared to the market for sedan sales the Tesla volume is small, which it is so there is no need to worry about the total demand for sedans yet.

Hmm... Maybe I misinterpreted it then. I see your point and could certainly how he might've meant that.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Slowing sooner, not stopping faster.

Heavy traffic, relatively blind exit ramp, and IMHO, closing too fast on slowing traffic for an exit ramp, the driver should have been slowing sooner.

With distracted driving on the rise, it's more important than ever to read the conditions ahead and react before those ahead of you, if only to control the flow behind you to avoid being rear ended.

This is very true. The radar can only see two cars ahead AFAIK. On a straight motorway in heavy, fast moving traffic, if the driver wants to keep up with what's going on ahead it's necessary to position their car within their lane so they can see several cars ahead and predict a slow-down or stop in plenty of time. A centrally-mounted camera looking forward is going to find this difficult, as will the radar I suspect.

Maybe one of the next improvements will need to be forward facing cameras in the door mirrors which can see around cars in front and look along the line of traffic?

 

[M3Rider]

Really good points, but given Robo Taxis aren't realistic for another 2 years (if you'r on Elon time) or 10 years (if you're in the AI business and know wtf you're talking about) it might have made sense to build the potentially better-seller first, and roll out the Model 3 in 2020, just in time for FSD (apparently).

Now I love the Model 3, it's exactly the electric car I wanted, minus the panel gaps, and I might not have been so enthusiastic about the Y. But it seems most 'Muricans love their small SUVs and the Y potentially could have had bigger initial demand and a much wider tail in the US than the '3 has had.

I think they needed to field test the 3 and establish the track record - what happens in the accidents, what's the real range etc. Not a good idea to put a brand new vehicle on TN.

Also, Tesla prefers to get their robotaxis at half price - coming off of a 3-year lease, so there's that. If they released Y first, they wouldn't have 3s coming off of lease in 2020(given that they're planning not based on @neroden's estimates).

I don't agree with your panel gaps comment. They existed in 2017 and you got yours from the Q3/Q4 2018 wave, right? My car is from Q3 2018 and it has zero gap issues. When I look at cars of other brands I do see those severe gap issues that don't exist on my 3.

 

[oneday]

Wonder if we will get an announcement this afternoon that the equity offering is fully subscribed. Thoughts?