Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AlMc]

Meanwhile, (in the actual Market) another huge trade:

18-11 hrs 577,197 @ 254.13

This is over 5.6% of today's total volume (including this trade).

This is 2.5x the volume trade at close:
226,794 @ 16-00 hrs

We had similar large trades after hrs last week. I think someone is accumulating.

Thanks 'Dodger'. Good to see some info that could be useful.......Glad I got a chance to see it before it gets buried in 10 pages of non investment info or moved because it has no place being in this thread.

I love Einhorn..not (shorting TSLA/trashing EM..again)....Hope no one here invested $ with him

 

[Artful Dodger]

Would that large of an after hours trade not move the needle more?

Yeah, @Fact Checking explained last week on Apr 24 how pre-arranged trades work, and why they're done this way. I'm not qualified to explain.

EDITed to quote F/C: (his comment appears to relate to large pre-arranged trades during regular hrs:

Noticed it too, has the signature of an "arranged trade": where seller offers the shares in the open market as a 500,000 shares sell limit order at a prearranged moment and buyer who coordinates with the seller immediately consumes that limit order. It's usually done in quiet periods of the trading day.

This is often preferred to OTC trades which are more difficult to price.

The advantage is price discovery without slippage, plus a marketplace transaction that removes trust issues.

 

[SPadival]

It’s interesting that there has been zero coverage in the US media of FCA giving € 1.8 billion to Tesla over a period of 3 years.

Is this priced in or not?

 

[Krugerrand]

By the time the Model Y comes out, the pricing might increase even for those with reservations. Who knows, it might cost double.

My offer is far better.

Tesla will honor the pricing for those that have already ordered. I know underneath your current smugness that you know that as well.

 

[Todd Burch]

I've been rear ended unexpectedly. In my data point of one, by the time you figure out why your car is handling strangely, you've already crashed. That maneuver looked very much like the Tesla on ice recover one. Though I guess it may have been human plus super traction./ stability control. It would be nice for Tesla to confirm, but if they did, I could see many people testing to see what it will save them from...

I often have my rear camera view up while driving. I once got caught behind rapidly braking traffic on the interstate in the left lane. I left plenty of space in front of me. And it was a good thing too, since the person behind me wasn’t able to stop in time so I had to accelerate and fill the gap I left to avoid getting rear-ended.

Point is, if he was watching his rear camera view he could have been ready for the maneuver. (Or lucky that his instinct was the right one).

Tesla talks in their release notes about all of their safety features. Collision avoidance, lane departure warning, obstacle-aware acceleration, etc, etc. do you really think this awesome collision avoidance functionality would be completely unmentioned in release notes, on Twitter, etc?

Sorry, not buying it. And I’m a huge Tesla and AP fan. (Yuge.)

 

[PANN]

I think Enhanced Summon will go viral on the internet when rolled out later this month. It's actually FSD with Remote Human Supervision to me, after reviewing some early access videos. I also expect people try to do all kinds of crazy and funny things with it, and post videos.

With the above, I also think the general public will start taking Elon's FSD promises seriously. Seeing is believing, it'll the closest FSD experience in real life.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is making a lot of assumptions.

You would know given the number of assumptions you’ve been making.

 

[Unpilot]

I think Enhanced Summon will go viral on the internet when rolled out later this month. It's actually FSD with Remote Human Supervision to me, after reviewing some early access videos. I also expect people try to do all kinds of crazy and funny things with it, and post videos.

With the above, I also think the general public will start taking Elon's FSD promises seriously. Seeing is believing, it'll the closest FSD experience in real life.

It better be a lot faster than what the video upstream showed. People are so impatient when behind the wheel.

 

[Carl Raymond]

do you really think this awesome collision avoidance functionality would be completely unmentioned in release notes, on Twitter, etc?

Yes. Developers love writing code, hate writing release notes.

 

[Remus]

Software teams often have few teams working on different generations of software, up to two generations ahead. It's likely, almost certain that Waymo already has teams that are working on pure vision based systems. It would be inconceivable that they're not hedging.
I should qualify this approach isn't useful for all problem area, and is not always used, but this one is perfect fit.

I think it is highly unlikely.

First: Usually Google is pretty good at publishing their work in research conferences to give their engineers publicity outside of the company, all the way back to page rank, big table, map reduce, the list goes on. They publisgpu a lot of lidar based self driving work too.
But no vision based paper that I can find.

Second: the vision based approach would have a complete different software architecture since vision based system would carry different information feeding to the down stream systems. This means the vision based team needs to be pretty big. When you have a "hedging" team that big, those people, especially the leaders of the team have strong incentive to prove themselves to get much bigger bonus and more importantly name recognition. No news from them likely means either they are a disaster or they don't exist.

 

[Todd Burch]

Honestly, after an accident this becomes a gray area where I'm not sure about what should happen, because there could be a damage to sensors and misinterpretation of what the car "sees".

Maybe it can diagnose them within some milliseconds and decide they are still good and then figure out what's next. Or navigate based on partial sensors still remaining. This is really mind boggling.

There was another poster in the reddit thread claiming the AP wrestled control away from him and changed 2 lanes to avoid side collision.

That would be a total of 2 claims to-date where AP automatically leaves your current lane.
I am still not sure this has really happened, because it is not documented.

I think this is freakish somewhat if you have to encounter a scenario where AP takes away your control and drives all over the place - especially if you didn't notice where the danger comes from. This kinda needs documented, so you know what to expect.

Yep. I’m highly, highly skeptical. Tesla would NOT be silent about this functionality if it existed.

Show me a dashcam where the steering wheel/IC cluster and the driver’s hands are visible not doing the steering. Then I will believe.

It’s great to be a Tesla/TSLA bull. A good chunk of my life savings is in TSLA. But if we start believing everything we see on the internet, we really ARE going to look like the loonies in the bunch .

Keep it realistic so the TSLAQ crowd doesn’t have more FUD fodder.

 

[Skryll]

I love Einhorn..not (shorting TSLA/trashing EM..again)....Hope no one here invested $ with him

I likely bought some of the shares he sold short. Does that count?

 

[Krugerrand]

My Model 3 has done this maneuver once with AP turned off, and with me driving, my wife's Model 3 (which does not have AP) did this same maneuver as well. In my car it was to avoid a bicyclist, in my wife's car it was to avoid a poorly placed concrete barricade. In both cases it was not a full lane change but the car did quickly swerve to the left about two feet and then return to the center.

I’ve had my 3 perform ‘the swerve’ for a bicyclist who moved out of his ‘lane’ partly into mine. I also got a very loud, unpleasant triple type beep just before the car moved.

 

[kbM3]

Since someone here mentioned the Autonomous forum as a place for today’s discussion, I thought I’d head over and check it out.

It is infested by the hired guns of the Tesla smear campaign. Almost every thread I’ve seen there is dominated by them.

Imagine someone inspired by the autonomy day heading to TMC forums and literally being bombarded by bad news coming from supposed owners and Tesla fans. I would imagine it would turn them off and completely dim their excitement.

It just makes me so sick, I can’t even stand to go there.

I know someone earlier today said good product will win in the end, but has any product ever been the subject of this intense of a smear campaign?

This thread is a relative safe haven.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes. Developers love writing code, hate writing release notes.

I am a software project manager. I know the drill.

No way is Tesla and Elon going to have THIS in the release notes:

“We’ll slightly correct steering if you start to go out of your lane”

But not this:

“If you get rear ended, the car will steer into adjacent lanes if possible to avoid obstacles ahead and attempt to minimize front end damage”.

Common sense guys. Now you’re starting to make ME feel like some TSLA bulls are blinded by the light...and I’ve probably been in the club longer than most of you!

(Joined TMC 2009, bought TSLA shortly after IPO).

 

[Carl Raymond]

I am a software project manager. I know the drill.

No way is Tesla and Elon going to have THIS in the release notes:

“We’ll slightly correct steering if you start to go out of your lane”

But not this:

“If you get rear ended, the car will steer into adjacent lanes if possible to avoid obstacles ahead and attempt to minimize front end damage”.

Common sense guys. Now you’re starting to make ME feel like some TSLA bulls are blinded by the light...and I’ve probably been in the club longer than most of you!

(Joined TMC 2009, bought TSLA shortly after IPO).

I think you are being too literal. They have spoken about the overriding importance of ‘drivable space’. The behaviour observed is consistent with the car driving into the only drivable space on the road ahead. Had that lane been blocked, the next preference may have been drivable space off the road, i.e. swerve to the right.

Edit: occurs to me that the word ‘swerve’ evokes human associations with ‘emergency response’. For the FSD chip, it knows the car is well within safe bounds. It’s just ‘driving’.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I think it is highly unlikely.

First: Usually Google is pretty good at publishing their work in research conferences to give their engineers publicity outside of the company, all the way back to page rank, big table, map reduce, the list goes on. They publisgpu a lot of lidar based self driving work too.
But no vision based paper that I can find.

Second: the vision based approach would have a complete different software architecture since vision based system would carry different information feeding to the down stream systems. This means the vision based team needs to be pretty big. When you have a "hedging" team that big, those people, especially the leaders of the team have strong incentive to prove themselves to get much bigger bonus and more importantly name recognition. No news from them likely means either they are a disaster or they don't exist.

Besides which, they don’t have the data.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

You sounded really naiive.

First they have to admit they were wrong, which is damn hard to do given all the politics going on in these companies. Apple's car projects has went through multiple re-orgs and political fights have pretty much stalled the projects for all these years, non-stop. Why do you think Google fails to catch up with Microsoft in cloud computing even when they appear superior in almost all technology fronts? because admitting one's wrong strategically means some group of people high up will lose their high paying job. landing another one in current market is not an easy feast. Currently they are trying very hard to get investors to take Waymo away from them. What do you think would happen if they suddenly admit publicly that they have been wrong all along?!

and that's only the start. they already partner with chrysler. just announced they gonna build those vans with expansive hats on top. now they change course, don't you think chrysler would take a pause?

If Waymo is like Google, they manage by OKRs, as described in 'Measure what matters' and 'Trillion dollar coach'.
It's easy and encouraged under these programs to admit errors and pivot quickly. Culture you're describing isn't something I would attribute to Google. Don't know about Apple.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think you are being too literal. They have spoken about the overriding importance of ‘drivable space’. The behaviour observed is consistent with the car driving into the only drivable space on the road ahead. Had that lane been blocked, the next preference may have been drivable space off the road, i.e. swerve to the right.

Shrug. I suppose if true a dashcam video of a similar situation will come out where we can see the driver and confirm if this is true.

 

[Krugerrand]

“Current investors should find this news alarming for several reasons. The idea that a car will miraculously increase fivefold or more in value based on the ability to use it to generate income is nonsense. Tell that to the millions of Uber and Lyft drivers who use their cars for revenue generation every day. I cringe every time I hear Musk make that comment.“

Lol, this is a quote from Donn Bailey, Seeking Alpha.
Tesla: Elon Musk Moves The Goal Posts, Again - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Such a dumb deception. Regardless of the actual timeline to FSD, there is no comparison between a driven car and a driverless car when calculating earning potential.

After reading that, I figure every paragraph in the article is written with the objective to deceive. Some FUD is well written. It must be embarrassing to be a writer of poor quality FUD.

Forget all that for a minute; no FSD, no Robo-Taxis. Does that mean there’s nothing to invest in where Tesla is concerned?

He’s disingenuous at best. At worst it’s against forum policy for me to describe what he is.