Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

As an investor I welcome this news with open arms.

Yes, me too. I was expecting some increase due to tariffs. If it did not happen then I would be wondering.

 

[davecolene0606]

I think those are aggressive long-term numbers.

If the base Model 3 costs $38k to make currently, then current average cost across all models is going to be much higher than that.

It doesn’t cost 38k it’s less. You have this number wrong.

Fire Away!

 

[azaz]

Where is advanced summon? FSD w/ driver by end of year? Really? Maybe Neroden is right. Tesla’s achievements are overshadowed by their disappointments which is sad. Since Tesla is a public company, Musk needs to be a bit more like Steve Jobs, just surprise us when it’s ready

Steve Jobs had to get fired and spend some time in the so called wilderness to wisen up and become a better leader.

 

[elasalle]

OT:
Morgan Stanley Clients Saddled With Massive Losses After Disastrous Uber IPO

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jerome Guillen has stated they’re targeting the same payload capacity as a diesel.

Also @Artful Dodger (IIRC) did an estimation based on acceleration figures that came to the same conclusion.

Somehow Tesla’s pulling off a miracle. I’d guess they saved a lot of weight in the traditional parts of the tractor.

Yup. F=MA since 1687...

Best weight estimate for Semi based on motor specs and performance figures provided by Tesla at the reveal event is 19,400 lbs.

Here's my comment from May 4th:

Tesla revealed some interesting specs on Semi reveal night. From F=MA, it takes 1,200 hp (at the wheels) to accelerate 0-60 mph in 20 sec at 80,000 lbs (see link below for calc):

Acceleration simulator​

Using the calculator in the link above, that weight and 0-60 mph time yields this hp figure:

• 0-60 in 20 sec @ 80,000 lbs: 1,200 hp

View attachment 404194

Wikipedia lists 283 hp in its specs for the RWD Model 3. Well, perhaps at 50% SOC that might be true, but dyno-testing at 80% SOC has demonstrated 360 hp at the wheels in a new 2018 LR RWD.

So we can easily rate the Semi at 300 hp per motor to obtain 1,200 hp for the Semi. Let's plug in some more numbers into the calculator:

• 0-60 in 5 sec @ 1,200 hp: 19,400 lbs

Further, it would be no problem to obtain 360x4=1,440 hp from the Semi via software. Future proofed.

Regen ability is primarily limited by the battery. But at 2 C burst charge rate, even the 600 KWhr version of the Semi should be able to accept 1,200 KW of regen, which is equivalent to 1,600 hp and near the limits of the motors and electronics.

TL;dr The Semi is likely set to produce around 1,200 hp, and weighs about 19,400 lbs empty.

Cheers!

 

[sparcs]

As an investor I welcome this news with open arms.

It's a very curious amount being so small. Plus it also affects the base model $35k version too. It went up $400.

Tesla just got denied on the waiver for the FSD hardware so the timing is about right.

 

[brantse]

I have no way to confirm it, but someone in a Facebook group recently posted that one of the stores in Vancouver sold 900 Model 3's last week. Maybe the Canadian incentives have created a spike in demand, leading to the recent price increase.

 

[hacer]

...

Note its just the Model 3 SR+ that is eligible for the rebate, not Tesla's more expensive vehicles. But this bread'n'butter electric sedan will sell in huge numbers here in Canada. And save Canadians huge amounts of money, tax, and emissions. 3x FTW. ...

I thought it was only necessary that the base-price meet the minimum pricing, and if that is true then you can go ahead and buy the various options (like long range battery and dual motor) and still be eligible for the rebate. Is that wrong? Must you actually buy the base model with an actual price below the threshold? I'm just asking because I thought I'd previously read (on TMC) that the law was written that way.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Could it be that in anticipation of GF3, the China model 3 sales are being held back? I think this might be a drag specially around the time the GF3 is near complete.

It would only affect low spec (GF3 planned) models, which are not yet available in China, so no.

AFAIK

 

[Big Earl]

I thought it was only necessary that the base-price meet the minimum pricing, and if that is true then you can go ahead and buy the various options (like long range battery and dual motor) and still be eligible for the rebate. Is that wrong? Must you actually buy the base model with an actual price below the threshold? I'm just asking because I thought I'd previously read (on TMC) that the law was written that way.

The base price of $44,999 CAD allows trim levels of that base model up to $55,000, excluding options like paint, interior color and FSD. Since Plus is a trim level of Standard Range, all Standard Range Plus vehicles qualify for the incentive. Long range vehicles do not qualify.

 

[MP3Mike]

I thought it was only necessary that the base-price meet the minimum pricing, and if that is true then you can go ahead and buy the various options (like long range battery and dual motor) and still be eligible for the rebate. Is that wrong? Must you actually buy the base model with an actual price below the threshold? I'm just asking because I thought I'd previously read (on TMC) that the law was written that way.

You have to have one trim/variant with a base price below, then you can buy any trim/variant with a base price below $55k and add options. LR and dual motor aren't options they are trims/variants. And the base price of those trims/variants are too high too qualify.

 

[CaptainKirk]

I have no way to confirm it, but someone in a Facebook group recently posted that one of the stores in Vancouver sold 900 Model 3's last week. Maybe the Canadian incentives have created a spike in demand, leading to the recent price increase.

I can see that happening. I visited the local dealer in Ontario on the way in for mother’s day and they said they were taking orders in at a rate of about 345 a day. It’s a no brainer in BC and QC, where the province has incentives that stack alongside the federal if one is buying an SR+. That $300 million set aside is only enough 60000 cars, it’ll be allocated for before the next elections in October conclude.

 

[DaveT]

It doesn’t cost 38k it’s less. You have this number wrong.

Fire Away!

I really do wish it was less. Let’s call it $37,900.

 

[EVNow]

<S> Yeah, worthless. I mean, who cares how happy the customers are? </S>

Have people already forgotten CR fiasco with Model 3 ?

Anyway, the reason the surveys are worthless is because they are not statistically significant. They are biased because the participants are self-selected and may not represent overall ownership.

 

[EVNow]

I really do wish it was less. Let’s call it $37,900.

Are you just going by autonomy day graphic showing < 38,000 or something else ? Someone mentioned cap raise call notes - do you have (link to) them ?

 

[Beaver]

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'

I know of two people that are holding off on buying a Tesla in Illinois because of this. I'm sure it will be negotiated down to a realistic rate, but they are being cautious. Anecdotal but I'm sure it is having an affect on sales.
I wrote to all of the members on the transportation committee. I also looked into their campaign finances.
The senator that wrote the amendment, Martin A. Sandoval (D), was by far the worst:
ILLINOIS AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION $21,000.00
Oil & Gas $16,751.32

There are only a couple other members that took money like that. Hopefully the rest will be more level headed and fight this. One of my local senators almost only took money from green PACs and I hope she fights this, even though she isn't on the committee.

One sad OT thing was every member I looked up took money from large hospital chains and medical insurance. That industry is never getting fixed.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

That 38k number is highly variable. It’s all about throughput.

The fixed costs of operating a factory for a certain capacity is what is driving the costs. Double the volume with limited overtime and you half your fixed cogs. That’s the main idea for building the Y in Fremont.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Increased buying in relation to share price drop Robintrack

That’s extraordinary. Fifty thousand new stockholders in three and a half months, up from 100,000.

My understanding is that robinhood users are mostly young people. They are showing a healthy contempt for mainstream media in their disregard for the FUD. I hope they make a motsa, they deserve to be rewarded for this savvy.

 

[EVNow]

That 38k number is highly variable. It’s all about throughput.

The fixed costs of operating a factory for a certain capacity is what is driving the costs. Double the volume with limited overtime and you half your fixed cogs. That’s the main idea for building the Y in Fremont.

Yes, currently depreciation is about $6k per vehicle. In Q1 '18 with just 34k production, it was $12k per vehicle. Tesla has large fixed depreciation with a bit of variable.

 

[EVNow]

The senator that wrote the amendment, Martin A. Sandoval (D), was by far the worst:
ILLINOIS AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION $21,000.00
Oil & Gas $16,751.32

Its incredible how cheap it is to buy influence. Literally billion dollar industry's fortunes are being changed based on such paltry amounts.