Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

Elon’s purported email said net demand this quarter is up 50,000 units. For a 90K delivery quarter, is this ok? Seems low unless you assume or know a larger backlog?

Further to this, I think it's useful to look in a bit more detail at what this tells us about demand.
The 50k net orders so far in Q2 maps to a current quarterly net order rate of c.90k. There are some factors holding this back and some factors possibly artificially boosting it relative to a pure run rate demand level.

Factors acting against the current 90k order rate.

• US SR+ launch in Q1 will have pulled orders into Q1 and created a backlog.
• Still adverse seasonality in 1H.
• Orders normally skewed to final month due to end of Q sales push/discounts.
• Many China customers will be waiting for the significantly cheaper GF3 Model 3s.
• Some S/X customers will be waiting for a further refresh as has been heavily rumoured.
• Relentless FUD
• No marketing.
• Still no Model 3 launch or direct S/X sales in many countries in the world.
• Some lingering demand pull forward impact from the tax credit changes in US and Holland at the end of 2018.
• No GF3 production which will dramatically reduce end consumer prices in China and dramatically increase the addressable market.
• No Model Y yet available! The Tesla product with the largest addressable market.
• No Pickup. No Semi.
• $200k+ lifetime financial, health and environmental subsidies for every ICE car sold.

Factors boosting the current 90k order rate.

• SR+ was launched in Europe and Asia during Q2, as well as leasing in US, which will have released some pent up demand/reservation conversions into orders.
• Some demand pull forward benefit in the US due to a smaller tax credit step down at the end of Q2.
• Some demand pull forward benefit in China due to fears of rising tariffs.
• Some pent up demand for Raven S/X cars.

On the whole, I think there are far more short term factors holding back the current 3/S/X order rate than those currently boosting it.
It looks to me like Tesla will again be supply constrained on all models in Q2, however demand and supply are tracking close to each other at current pricing and ideally Tesla would have more of an imbalance and more pricing power.

 

[sundaymorning]

50k partway through the quarter. The rate extrapolates to 90k for the quarter as a whole.

According to the email it’s beyond 90,700 (based on the trends of the past quarters). We’re already at 900 units a day.

 

[LJS22]

CNBC about to cover TSLA’s gains so far.

 

[uselesslogin]

Well guys, thanks again. We'll see how the day goes - but word gets out faster here than the rest of the market it seems. Every once in a while that means I get to buy before the market. Too bad I didn't buy weeklies...

 

[Zaxxon]

50k partway through the quarter. The rate extrapolates to 90k for the quarter as a whole.

Bull take: the rate tends to rise as the quarter nears its end, especially in a Q with a US tax credit cliff (albeit a smaller one). If we're extrapolating 90k now, that should rise as the quarter approaches its end.
Bear take: Musk is saying that if they 'rally hard,' they may meet the low end of guidance.
Crazy-but-real-world take: Last time Musk said something similar about rallying, it was to secure a small profit, at a time when a small profit was already in the bag. So who knows.

 

[sundaymorning]

There's that confirmation you were waiting for (Business Insider)

Elon Musk tells Tesla employees in leaked email that customer demand is still high, despite the stock crashing in recent weeks

Mainstream media finally got a hold of the email, stock is up. Gather your nerves big boys and gals, the buying signal you needed is here.

 

[commasign]

Seth Weintraub just posted a TSLA news wrap-up, commenting on the recent analyst reports and AJ's call last night, but nothing on the leaked email. In contrast, in the comments section everyone is talking about the leaked email, with links to the Teslarati article.

Fred just posted with confirmations. Finally. Plus his usual unnecessary commentary. Lol

 

[Drax7]

1..bankruptcy in 10 months, cut cost urgency memo, stock gets killed
Jonas sees $10 possible outcome, stock get killed again

2. Wink, ignored . (Sec considers wink just an eye tick)

3. leak potential record production/ delivery, bottom punctuated

We should retrace to 225 very quickly

 

[sparcs]

Looks like we're about to bust through $200. Getting close anyways.

 

[AndyH]

Somebody's cranking up the volume. Way past ten already.

This stock goes to eleven! So says Nigel Tufnel.

 

[KarenRei]

 

[anthonyj]

Not my only account. Ima go throw up now

 

[avoigt]

First format here:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Second phone screenshot was here but quickly removed -- so you have to take my word for it - I did see it.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

I did see it and can confirm it was the same mail but from a different display, looked like a smart phone.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Well guys, thanks again. We'll see how the day goes - but word gets out faster here than the rest of the market it seems. Every once in a while that means I get to buy before the market. Too bad I didn't buy weeklies...

This particular news seemed to beat the market by 20 minutes or so. Which isn’t bad if you’re a day trader.

 

[dw4ngg]

View attachment 411008
Not my only account. Ima go throw up now

I've bought 33 add'l shares myself the last few days.... and want to throw up as well.

 

[Sancho]

I have no idea where the SP will go from here, but thanks to everyone on this board who enabled me (by confirming the new Musk email) to buy more TSLA this morning at a 5% discount to the price once the main media reported it.

The hundreds of hours of time I’ve spent reading this forum just paid off.

 

[powertoold]

SEC vs Elon: SEC 1, Elon 2

 

[EVNow]

It's still contingent on achieving 1k/day average. If they stay at 900/day, they'll short production by 9k model 3s.

I guess it's good to know they'll hopefully be > 80k.

Let us say they make 900/day avg for rest of the month. For the first half of the quarter, lets say they were making 800/day. That is a total of 77k. 15k of s+x gives us 92k vehicles produced. Given large inventory at the end of Q1, they should have no problem delivering 90k.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

SP taking a break. I suppose the market wants to get an official confirmation from Tesla.

 

[dw4ngg]

I have no idea where the SP will go from here, but thanks to everyone on this board who enabled me (by confirming the new Musk email) to buy more TSLA this morning at a 5% discount to the price once the main media reported it.

The hundreds of hours of time I’ve spent reading this forum just paid off.

Not if you haven't sold by now..