EVNow
Well-Known Member
Wouldn't Panasonic be declaring this in their ER if it is such a big factory ? That should involve a substantial capex layout - unless Panasonic is just the technology partner and LinkData is putting up all the money.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Carl Raymond
Active Member
[QUOTE="EVNow, post: 3689461, member: 1798]
The growth rate was 64% in 2018 for a total of about 2.2M PEVs. If the world maintains the 64% growth rate, in 2023 the sales will be 26M. May be that's how they came up with 26M ?[/QUOTE]
Well did Tasha say *by* 2023 or *in* 2023. For anything growing at 60 to 70 percent, there’s a huge difference.
If she’s wrong, it’s purely academic. Wait 18 months and her forecast run rate will have arrived. History won’t care. It will still show the end of the fossil fuel era as a dot on the timeline.
The growth rate was 64% in 2018 for a total of about 2.2M PEVs. If the world maintains the 64% growth rate, in 2023 the sales will be 26M. May be that's how they came up with 26M ?[/QUOTE]
Well did Tasha say *by* 2023 or *in* 2023. For anything growing at 60 to 70 percent, there’s a huge difference.
If she’s wrong, it’s purely academic. Wait 18 months and her forecast run rate will have arrived. History won’t care. It will still show the end of the fossil fuel era as a dot on the timeline.
Take it with a huge grain of salt, the worker speaking the video does not sounds like a reliable source. First he said they are required to connect all utilities by May. Then he said the natural gas pipline's deadline is Aug. He said they expect to begin production end of the years. and then he said they are only a small group in charge of the natural gas pipeline only, he does not know any other part of the project. Then he said the second and the third state would take 2-3 years, and then he said again he's only working on the natural gas line, so no knowledge about other part.
who knows.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I'm not talking about short selling in the normal course of trading. I'm talking about naked short selling by market makers. This practice violates the basic principle of supply and demand which is fundamental to price discovery, and thus efficient markets.
A recent example was the 'Bloomberg Bear Raid' last Fall when over 1 Million shares where sold in 10 minutes with the release of a concocted story co-ordinated with a bear raid of massive short selling. SP dropped $20 in <10 min, then recovered within 2 hrs after the lie was discovered. The events of the day were discussed extensively here on TMC.
On 'up' days (ie: breaking good news), when Market Makers can make unlimited shares available to short sellers, there can be no point during the intraday session in which scarcity drives up the price. Market Makers has effectively usurped the sole authority of the Company to create and issue shares, promising 'to find them later, afterward'. They have weeks to buy back slowly, at the artifically reduced price.
So it doesn't matter if the market maker locates real shares within 13 sessions (per SEC rule SHO). The damage (trade) is already done. Trades which occur at the lowered price are never reversed.
The entire market cap of the underlying equity is reduced by the amount extracted by the short sellers. This harms genuine shareholders, even the ones who didn't sell at any point, and held their shares throughout.
The Market Maker's naked short exemption is being abused, it is being covered up by disclosure rules, and it is being exploited as a part of the strategy to stop Tesla by damaging TSLA.
This is covert war, and its being waged in the shadows. As always, sunlight is the best disinfectant.
Last edited:
JusRelax
Active Member
What are your thoughts on the definition of "net new orders". Do you thing the 50k increase is "New Orders minus Withdrawn Orders" or "New Orders minus Withdrawn Orders minus Fulfilled Orders"? If i was looking at my order pipeline in finance i would interpret the comment as the second definition as it sounds like the number of orders is 50k higher on May 22 than it was on Mar 31. If so, the order book sounds very healthy to me.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Sounds to me total orders for Q2 minus those initiated in Q1 i.e. orders actually placed in Q2.
The 3 tracking sheet mostly shows it’s taking about 10 days to get the cars after placing the order. Then there are many still open after 2 or 3 weeks.
If that email is to be believed shows robust orders, production and deliveries in NA. May be we will see lot more in NA than 50%.
He said '“As of yesterday, we had over 50,000 net new orders for this quarter'
Strange phrasing. Favors explanation 1 to me.
I agree we are likely to sell 12~13 million EVs in 2023, assume we don't hit a Kodak or iPhone moment. If you ask today's Model 3 owners, most will tell you we already hit the Kodak moment in cars. In another 4 years, I would say it's highly likely most peoples' first choice will be EV, as long as they can afford it.
The following factors might affect EV demand in 2023:
1. Autonomous driving progress
2. More convenient charging
3. Million mile drivetrain and battery pack
4. Reduced cost than today due to scale and improved quality
5. Better performance than today
6. Resale value for ICE car will drop
7. Friends, coworkers, neighbors are saying EV is better, so better awareness
I wouldn't be surprised if we pass the tipping point that more people want EVs than ICEs by 2023. So 25 million demand is possible by then. Even 100 million demand is imaginable if autonomous driving is achieved. We generally only say there are 80~90 million vehicle demand a year. There are another 2000 million existing ICE vehicles, at some point it will make sense for them to switch to autonomous EVs in stead of keeping the old ICEs. FSD and ride sharing will be the biggest unknown factor for the tipping point.
If A is cheaper and better than B, the demand for A should be 100%, assume people are well informed.
The worker mentioned that there are a bunch of burning Tesla cars on TV. I was just aware of one..are there more?
Don't worry, SpaceX can easily convert one of these satellites to a junk collector and clean up the space. These satellites know the position data and can automatically change orbit to avoid other objects.
There are two main considerations for this.Man im taking a beating, average share price is 290. Not sure weather to hold or get out now before it's too late. I mean I used the 5k tesla refunded me on my purchase to buy the stock, but well damn.
The first is how much do you need the money in the short term. If there is a chance of needing it then it is better to sell and keep what is left for any emergencies that come up.
The second is around your conviction in Tesla as an investment. If you believe it is going to be worth hundreds of millions in a few years then you should be looking to add to your position now, not sell. But it can be hard to fight the fear of a sharply dropping share price, this is where many people lose out on the big gains as they sell in fear at a low price and buy in greed at a high price.
If the first point doesn't apply to you, perhaps you should re-test your assumptions around the company and see if you still have the same conviction. If you do, take a Xanax and stay in.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I got a predictive range for market share from 10.3% to 22.1% for 2023. The market share is based on a market size of about 95M in 2018, all light duty vehicles. So in 2023 this could be about 106M, at an annual growth rate of 2.5%. So in terms of the data I'm using 26M would be about 25% market share. So 2023 is a bit early for 26M, but quite probable in the span of 2024 to 2026.
Another way to look at this is that going from 2.018M in 2018 to 26M in 2023 is an annual growth rate of 66.7%. That is very aggressive to sustain for 5 years. Doing it in 6 years is a much more plausible 53.1% annual growth rate and doing it in 8 years is a down right leisurely growth rate of 37.7% per year.
I'd also point out to those not following our oil thread that selling 26M EVs in one year likely marks the peak of oil demand. So we have a lot of interest in when EVs hit such numbers.
As I stated in an earlier post, I'm not worried about SpaceX, it's their competitors and also the potential of other stuff getting blown up that concerns me... it's just a matter of time.
I think it's unlikely to be the second as they have inventory many can buy and get the car right away.
But Raven is only available since a month ago. Before that they have no standard range model S X for ordering
Agreed. Even if banks can't prop trade directly anymore there are a hundred ways to make money when you know which way the share price is going.
Alphacrux
Member
Wall Street Urinal:
Driverless Cars Are 90% Here. Another 90% Is Left to Go.
Driverless Cars Are 90% Here. Another 90% Is Left to Go.
If building a robocar were just about putting the parts together, we’d be living in the future already
"If building a robocar were simply about figuring out how to best arrange a box of sophisticated parts, these predictions may have come true. Most of the necessary components—sensors, cameras, chips, those bulky lidar units that sit on top of the car—have been around for awhile. Any car maker or parts supplier worth its salt could figure out how to gin up a remote-control SUV."
"But it takes gobs of engineers, data, software, patience and cash to teach that 4,000-pound vehicle to think for itself."
Quotes from Waymo, GM about their autonomous vehicle plans:
"Hitting the market in 2010 as GM emerged from bankruptcy protection, the Volt was billed as a technological breakthrough. The plug-in hybrid vehicle was supposed to win GM widespread respect. Instead, it was squashed by Tesla Inc.’s electric sedans that went on sale shortly after the Volt’s debut. Tesla sold 50% more cars in 2018 alone than the Volt sold over a nine-year production run, which quietly ended in February"
"An army of seasoned engineers, a century of experience and an $8 billion R&D budget wasn’t enough for the Volt to beat Mr. Musk, a headstrong entrepreneur with a big vision and a mountain of venture-capitalist cash"
"GM is rebooting its electric-vehicle strategy, Mr. Musk is scrambling to keep Tesla afloat, and the driverless-car puzzle remains unsolved"
Driverless Cars Are 90% Here. Another 90% Is Left to Go.
Driverless Cars Are 90% Here. Another 90% Is Left to Go.
If building a robocar were just about putting the parts together, we’d be living in the future already
"If building a robocar were simply about figuring out how to best arrange a box of sophisticated parts, these predictions may have come true. Most of the necessary components—sensors, cameras, chips, those bulky lidar units that sit on top of the car—have been around for awhile. Any car maker or parts supplier worth its salt could figure out how to gin up a remote-control SUV."
"But it takes gobs of engineers, data, software, patience and cash to teach that 4,000-pound vehicle to think for itself."
Quotes from Waymo, GM about their autonomous vehicle plans:
- "Sacha Arnoud, one of Mr. Dolgov’s colleagues, recently said it will take Waymo—which has already been working on building that driver for a decade—as much time to complete the home stretch as it took to get there. “When you’re 90% done, you still have 90% to go,” Mr. Arnoud said during a separate MIT lecture. The first “90% of the technology takes 10% of the time.”
- "I asked Mr. Reuss what last year amounted to a $16.5 billion question: When will GM’s autonomous cars be ready for sale? He wouldn’t put a date on it. “We’re not going to sell autonomous vehicles in the near term” was as specific as he’d get."
- "Larry Burns, a former GM executive who more recently has worked as an adviser for Google, lays out of the evolution of these strategies in his book, “Autonomy.” Many analysts say GM is ahead of its conventional rivals in this type of research."
"Hitting the market in 2010 as GM emerged from bankruptcy protection, the Volt was billed as a technological breakthrough. The plug-in hybrid vehicle was supposed to win GM widespread respect. Instead, it was squashed by Tesla Inc.’s electric sedans that went on sale shortly after the Volt’s debut. Tesla sold 50% more cars in 2018 alone than the Volt sold over a nine-year production run, which quietly ended in February"
"An army of seasoned engineers, a century of experience and an $8 billion R&D budget wasn’t enough for the Volt to beat Mr. Musk, a headstrong entrepreneur with a big vision and a mountain of venture-capitalist cash"
"GM is rebooting its electric-vehicle strategy, Mr. Musk is scrambling to keep Tesla afloat, and the driverless-car puzzle remains unsolved"
anthonyj
Stonks
Groggy T. Bear on Twitter
This is why I’m going to short on Monday. Even the unemotional Anton Wahlnut is amazed by the E-Trons raw speed. I have a P85D and no one has given me a reaction like that. Maybe I’ll trade mine in for the E-Tron Tesla killer. I heard it even has a frunk too
This is why I’m going to short on Monday. Even the unemotional Anton Wahlnut is amazed by the E-Trons raw speed. I have a P85D and no one has given me a reaction like that. Maybe I’ll trade mine in for the E-Tron Tesla killer. I heard it even has a frunk too
Norway's EV market is a bit misleading, their policy heavily favor EV (which is great). I wouldn't be surprised if 90% of their vehicle demand switch to EV soon.
However, as EVs continue to improve and reduce cost, ICE vehicles cost go up due to reduced scale and lower resale value, we might see the same Norway phenomenon everywhere in the future.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
