Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tander]

The article says:

"Short-selling, or betting that a company would lose value, would still be allowed on the LTSE — and investors won’t have a legal limit on their ability to sell shares at any time."​

So this solves absolutely nothing if they don't completely ban market makers from engaging in any form of naked short selling. Without excemptions of any kind.

Trust Market Makers? Yeah, about that bridge u got fur sale over in Brooklyn...

I don't really see that much of a problem with the mechanics of short selling, it can serve a good purpose at times. The problem is when people start trying to manipulate stocks by coming up with false predictions and "research".

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Max 6K for Canada .. with all the incentives?

I would think closer to 10K.

 

[Hock1]

I’ve heard several times on here that a short squeeze is not possible due to unlimited naked shorting. Ihor seems to think that naked shorting is not happening on a large scale except intraday market making. Is he wrong? Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
View attachment 411706

Yeah. Anyone who has such a naive, unrealistic view of what the SEC will/would do and is apparently oblivious to the big role that naked short selling plays in the manipulation of our market, is obviously full of it. IMO.

 

[neroden]

I would think closer to 10K.

Canada? I'd guess at least 4K in British Columbia alone, just due to weird incentive stuff. Yeah, 10K for the whole of Canada sounds plausible.

 

[Cartegena]

The underwriters didn't have to expand the offering or take the "greenshoe" options. What happened is that the underwriters got actual, real purchase demand for ALL the shares, which is why they expanded the offering and took all the options; they were left with no position themselves.

They then proceeded, at least in the case of Morgan Stanley, to attempt to hurt the clients who had bought the shares from them by driving the stock price down. Both MS and GS have been documented to do this sort of thing in the past to other stocks. They consider their clients to be marks and targets, not customers.

I suspect the purchasers mostly are sitting on their shares, quietly, long-term. If anything, the offering means that those purchasers aren't buying shares on the open market now, when they otherwise would have been -- if a customer bought half a million shares from GS during the offering, they won't be buying that half a million shares on the open market now.

Interesting perspective. Price action on shares since latest offering:

Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
‎May‎ ‎24‎, ‎2019 199.83 199.98 188.75 190.63 190.63 14,119,900
‎May‎ ‎23‎, ‎2019 194.34 199.47 186.22 195.49 195.49 26,547,100
‎May‎ ‎22‎, ‎2019 199.10 203.94 191.78 192.73 192.73 18,685,200
‎May‎ ‎21‎, ‎2019 197.76 207.40 196.04 205.08 205.08 18,003,900
‎May‎ ‎20‎, ‎2019 202.80 206.00 195.25 205.36 205.36 20,526,200
‎May‎ ‎17‎, ‎2019 221.96 222.24 208.92 211.03 211.03 17,786,700
‎May‎ ‎16‎, ‎2019 229.49 231.00 226.50 228.33 228.33 7,483,300
‎May‎ ‎15‎, ‎2019 229.32 232.44 225.25 231.95 231.95 7,296,000
‎May‎ ‎14‎, ‎2019 229.30 234.50 228.00 232.31 232.31 7,252,400
‎May‎ ‎13‎, ‎2019 232.01 232.47 224.50 227.01 227.01 10,834,800
‎May‎ ‎10‎, ‎2019 239.75 241.99 236.02 239.52 239.52 7,008,300
‎May‎ ‎09‎, ‎2019 242.00 243.68 236.94 241.98 241.98 6,711,400
‎May‎ ‎08‎, ‎2019 246.94 250.60 244.20 244.84 244.84 6,176,400
‎May‎ ‎07‎, ‎2019 256.80 257.21 245.10 247.06 247.06 10,131,400
‎May‎ ‎06‎, ‎2019 250.02 258.35 248.50 255.34 255.34 10,833,900
‎May‎ ‎03‎, ‎2019 243.86 256.61 243.49 255.03 255.03 23,706,800

What is the motive of the ABL creditors to drive the share price below $190?

 

[Remus]

None, but Toyota has great influence with the Japanese government, and they [Toyota] are pushing fuel cells, so the government is going along. If you ignore physics, it's easy to sell "exhaust is only water", "hydrogen is the most common element in the universe", and "quick fills" to the uninformed.

Subsidies can only go so far.

Frequent fast cooling brought by decompress of gas would make parts very fragile over time. You think the government can subsidy replacement of fuel lines? And there just too many things can go wrong in the fuel cell.

Japan does not have much natural gas to make hydrogen from. When the tiny amount they can make run out, the government can give a loaner gas car to hydrogen car owners?


And it is really expensive to build hydrogen stations, how many the government can build? Last time I checked Japan is still a democratic society and it's very unlikely they can devote a significant portion of budget to this money losing business. And there are Panasonic and Nissan in Japan too.

 

[AcesDealt]

What is this 120M$+ 'other' category that shows up on cash flow consistently? I'm sure it's a variety of things like in Q1 it may have had the resale value adjustments, but is there a consistent input here into this category?

 

[anon]

Kelvin Yang on Twitter

View attachment 411760

That's interesting. Can anyone here verify the Chinese text in the photo - does it support the claim in the Tweet about this being a Tesla-Panasonic deal in China?

 

[jerry33]

Subsidies can only go so far.

Frequent fast cooling brought by decompress of gas would make parts very fragile over time. You think the government can subsidy replacement of fuel lines? And there just too many things can go wrong in the fuel cell.

Japan does not have much natural gas to make hydrogen from. When the tiny amount they can make run out, the government can give a loaner gas car to hydrogen car owners?


And it is really expensive to build hydrogen stations, how many the government can build? Last time I checked Japan is still a democratic society and it's very unlikely they can devote a significant portion of budget to this money losing business. And there are Panasonic and Nissan in Japan too.

I don't disagree with any of this, but right now Toyota's government influence seems to be more than the others. Also hydrogen proponents are betting on non-electric ways of creating hydrogen (magic bacteria or fungus) which is supposed to solve the natural gas issue. I'm skeptical.

 

[Remus]

That's interesting. Can anyone here verify the Chinese text in the photo - does it support the claim in the Tweet about this being a Tesla-Panasonic deal in China?

The banner says the city of Jiangyin and a JV of Panasonic is signing an agreement for a project about batteries.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

But when you consider realpolitik, this won't happen. The companies will be bailed out - infact almost all auto companies will be bailed out. VW, BMW, Merc are too important for Germany. Fiat for Italy. Toyota, Honda, Nissan for Japan. Hyundai/Kia in S Korea. etc. Only the smaller players could have issues - but they are already being bought out (like Mitsu, Volvo etc).

But most importantly when the big change happens, it happens because of a wide recession - so that gets blamed and not Tesla.

warm up the bailout funds...

 

[Pras]

Canada? I'd guess at least 4K in British Columbia alone, just due to weird incentive stuff. Yeah, 10K for the whole of Canada sounds plausible.

It does. There is no credible way to estimate Canada. The TMC tracker has rich US data, the ROW has at least carrier data and other sources but Canada I couldn’t find any indicators other than the Vancouver store anecdote. So yes it could be higher.

 

[Artful Dodger]

in the Q4 earnings release, why did Musk delay the 7k/week Model 3 guidance to end of 2019 when actually it turns out that they are more or less on track for end of Q2

That was before the SR+ was ready. They can build about 15% more Model 3s now using the same number of 2170 battery cells with a 50/50 production split between LR/SR+.

That's also why they were able to discontinue the MR, because the SR+ is better for business.

 

[EinSV]

Isn't Model 3 already competitive with BMW/Audi/Mercedes/etc without the tax incentives?

Tesla Model 3 vs. BMW 330i vs. Genesis G70 Compact Luxury Sedan Comparison - MotorTrend

I would rephrase that as: Model 3 now outclasses BMW, Audi, and Mercedes' competing gas-powered sport sedans, even before for taking into account cost savings from reduced fuel costs and maintenance, as well as tax incentives.

"The Tesla Model 3 wins this competition because it has thoroughly rewritten the rules of what a compact sport sedan can be. As it turns out, the number 3 is still the benchmark number for this segment. It just now happens to be a different type of 3."​

 

[Prunesquallor]

I hope for a great success, especially for the rural areas and places like Africa and South America. The one that concerns me though is the proliferation of things in orbit, which could create even more space junk. Starlink's deployment doesn't worry me as much as their future competition which could but 10 times as many satellites in orbit.

Maybe Waste Management will have a new market in the next few years...

As long as they can be tracked, or they passively deorbit in the case of failure, it’s no big deal. Not like that moronic Indian ASAT test...

 

[EVNow]

it can serve a good purpose at times.

Like what ?

 

[wipster]

As long as they can be tracked, or they passively deorbit in the case of failure, it’s no big deal. Not like that moronic Indian ASAT test...

It's not the Starlinks I'm concerned about, it's the competition. I expect SpaceX has anticipated this.

Maybe the Space Force will take care of it for us...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

As long as they can be tracked, or they passively deorbit in the case of failure, it’s no big deal. Not like that moronic Indian ASAT test...

They passively deorbit within 1-5 years after their end of life if their propulsion system fails and actively deorbit otherwise, according to the website.

 

[JusRelax]

New gf3 video with some new info:

1. Phase 2 of project estimated completion end of August.
2. Later expansions of gf3 will take 2-3 years to complete.
3. The wet, flooded grounds seem to cause them to actually have increased timelines compared to what they could normally do under perfect conditions? If true, that's just insane!

@Remus or anyone else that understands mandarin may be able to verify and glean more information.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

The banner says the city of Jiangyin and a JV of Panasonic is signing an agreement for a project about batteries.

A google image search produces this

LinkData on Twitter

Link Data website states:
Professional R & D team --- University of Oxford doctoral as the core, with lithium battery industry first-class experts
Professional cooperate partner---to carry out strategic cooperation with Panasonic on the cells’ development and module application and other aspects of in-depth lithium application

About Linkdata - Beijing Linkdata Technologies Co., Ltd