Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

• Uber reported earnings for the first time as a public company on Thursday after the bell.
• Uber reported a net loss of $1.01 billion for the quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations.
• The company reported total revenue of $3.10 billion, at the top end of its preliminary estimates for the quarter.

up 3.8%

There's a lesson for someone "Uber stock rises as net losses match expectations"

 

[tschmidty]

but why can't you guys see that this philosophy SUCKS for the vast majority of Model 3 prospects, who CANT charge at home or at work? they don't want to sit for 4 hours at a destination charger once a week. they want to get lunch/coffee at a supercharger and be stuck for 20-30 minutes, tops. how can anyone in an urban area, townhome, or apartment be expected to buy a Tesla if their only charging options completely suck?

You are right IMO. Some of this will be time as networks expand and an adapter appears. But frankly with things as they are an EV is not the right choice for everyone.

 

[jerry33]

I can't remember if I posted this idea already or not. With the conversion to smart electric meters everywhere, those dumb meters could be used in apartment and condo charging situations to charge individuals for their true cost of charging. It would repurpose the meters instead of whatever happens to them now. Electric companies should make them available free or cheap to encourage apartment/condo charging.

Dumb metres are really cheap. They are often used at RV parks. There are a number of online sources.

 

[Cobos]

• Uber reported earnings for the first time as a public company on Thursday after the bell.
• Uber reported a net loss of $1.01 billion for the quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations.
• The company reported total revenue of $3.10 billion, at the top end of its preliminary estimates for the quarter.

up 3.8%

What exactly did the [strikethrough]fools[/strikethrough] investors get for that cool 1 billion in losses? I suppose a factory or some nearterm promise for a big expansion in the topline revenue?

 

[Tslynk67]

In autonomy day Elon went full hype mode and talked about FSD this year and regulators approval for robotaxis 2020. Problem is, that no one believes him any more. Even bulls here don’t believe him.

I wanted to hit the "I think you may be right" button there, but "like" was the closest I could get.

 

[Big Earl]

Sure it said 6 months but it said each referral extended the expiration date by 6 months. So if you got 10 referrals you got 50,000 miles that were good for 5 years. (i.e. I think that they screwed the wording up, but now they have to honor it.)

And it still says "Each additional referral will extend the expiration date by 6 months." for the current 1,000 mile program, so they haven't fixed it.

I suspect the extensions with every referral aren't a mistake.

 

[larmor]

What exactly did the [strikethrough]fools[/strikethrough] investors get for that cool 1 billion in losses? I suppose a factory or some nearterm promise for a big expansion in the topline revenue?

I don't think they got mileage data to even sell for future autonomous vehicles... And was that close to 50% year over year growth (i don't know, but asking, since a car manufacturer has and is being punished in the markets).

 

[dc_h]

There's a lesson for someone "Uber stock rises as net losses match expectations"

I'd say a few lessons.

1. Instant profits from Tesla network should not be expected. Uber is the market leader and 3b in quarterly revenue?
2. Tesla network going live in a handful of urban centers will kill Uber. Tesla network costs breakeven will be so much lower.
3. Uber would seem to be what TSLAQ says TSLA is

 

[dww12]

So it’s 5:30AM in HK, do we know what time the announcement is? Do we have bets here as to what the least expensive first available China Model 3 will be (USD converted)? Also guesses on how many pre-orders? I’ll throw out $34,500 and 300k within a week.

 

[EVNow]

So it’s 5:30AM in HK, do we know what time the announcement is? Do we have bets here as to what the least expensive first available China Model 3 will be (USD converted)? Also guesses on how many pre-orders? I’ll throw out $34,500 and 300k within a week.

It won't be that inexpensive. May be 300k RMB at $43k.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'd say a few lessons.

1. Instant profits from Tesla network should not be expected. Uber is the market leader and 3b in quarterly revenue?
2. Tesla network going live in a handful of urban centers will kill Uber. Tesla network costs breakeven will be so much lower.
3. Uber would seem to be what TSLAQ says TSLA is

Uber loses money because they charge less for rides than it costs them. Tesla won't need to do this. "instant" profit is a stretch, but very low cost of entry for sure. Uber has zero moat in this space. Already operating on a loss per ride, even a small entrant that can significantly undercut them will be catastrophic. Drivers barely make money as it is, decreasing their number of fares by even 10% would cause many to leave I think.

 

[Thekiwi]

yeah, agreed. there's a bit of unfortunate conflict here -- transition to electric is easiest for people with garages, which statistically trends older, and be more suburban / rural people. meanwhile, Tesla's maximum level of appeal is probably among younger people and city dwellers, both of whom are statistically very unlikely to park in a garage that they own.

providing a means of convenient charging for street parkers, be they urban or suburban, is a problem Tesla has not successfully tackled yet, and it's the single biggest hurdle i have in convincing people to buy one. I have several friends who are amazed by my car and who have gone to the trouble to spec and price one of their own, but who end up balking because they know they'll be parking on the street at an apartment complex or townhome community or whatever, and they wouldn't be able to charge over night.

i don't have a solution, but if Tesla were to solve that, they'd increase sales tremendously.

More Superchargers in high density areas seems like the obvious solution, which I’m sure is what Tesla is attempting to do as we speak. Longer term solution: your car goes and charges itself overnight, so you never have to worry about it.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The China event will not have any significant postive effect on the SP. Don’t fool yourself. Just look at all the previous events Tesla had. Remember how bullish people were about the autonomy investor day? Unveiling event of model Y, which is supposed to be a bigger seller than the 3?

I remember a Tesla event that had a significant effect on the stock price. It was the model 3 launch. The order count made it patently obvious that the 3 was in high demand.

The model Y launch day was deliberately underplayed by Musk. Autonomy day was great for geeks, but beyond the ken of most.

They seem to be launching into China with a bit more pizzazz. I think the shorts will be praying the order count is not in the hundreds of thousands, lest history repeat.

 

[Boomer19]

OK, so your friend is insane to start with. Living in Manhattan and owning a car is crazy to start with, but doing so without a private parking space is even crazier.

He was a lost cause.



Come on, can't she get charging at home? Greenville, NC isn't Manhattan. She's not parking on random street corners each night, is she?


Informative.

to the first point, i know. tell me
about it.
they live in city, park on street, and, for the most part, don’t take metro north to greenwich to work.

to 2nd point,
she’s trying to find out if her bldg can accommodate a charger. it’s not a garage parking situation. it’s outdoor lot and street parking, i believe. we’ll see

the third prospect,
still working over the wife

 

[Dwdnjck]

Superchargers are meant to facilitate long distance travel, not to facilitate charging during your daily routine. Routine charging can and should be done at home, or using public chargers, or using destination chargers.

In many cities, Tesla has “urban SuperChargers” that are 75KW. This allows apartment dwellers to plug and go have coffee or lunch once or twice a week while they charge. Many are located at shopping malls or in urban parking structures. One just opened 2 miles from my house in Del Mar, Ca.

 

[Pras]

I remember a Tesla event that had a significant effect on the stock price. It was the model 3 launch. The order count made it patently obvious that the 3 was in high demand.

The model Y launch day was deliberately underplayed by Musk. Autonomy day was great for geeks, but beyond the ken of most.

They seem to be launching into China with a bit more pizzazz. I think the shorts will be praying the order count is not in the hundreds of thousands, lest history repeat.

Agree. If and if Tesla gets more than 100k orders, they should start publishing it

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Next time you’re at your local supercharging station, would like to see you say that to those charging there. Don’t just be a keyboard warrior.

I said that to a guy in Macon, GA once (ok, in a nicer manner). We were just having a casual Tesla conversation and he told me that he comes about once a week to take advantage of the free charging. I asked him how far away he lived and he said about 10 or 12 minutes. Then I asked him how much he saves by driving to the free supercharger vs charging at home. He said, "I'm think about $40 or $50". I explained to him how much he pays for each kwh, and he did the math. He looked at me and said, "I drive 10 minutes here, charge for almost an hour, and drive 10 minutes back FOR $12!!". I said, "yea, that;s why I was asking. I've never understood why people go to so much trouble to charge for free when it's not even worth the drive time". He thanked me and said he would never waste his time doing it again.

I think most people simply get caught up with "free". My mama would spend $20 in gas to drive to a grocery store giving away $10 hams. And I ain't BS'ing you!

 

[SPadival]

Casey has a contest to win a Performance Model 3

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Agree. If and if Tesla gets more than 100k orders, they should start publishing it

I'd have to disagree. Tesla claimed 400,000 deposits on the M3 and I don't think they've sold that many to this day. I remember when the media reported that the refund rate was super high for the Model 3 and I figured it was more FUD. Turns out they were right on that one (apparently).

So, I think if they got bold with the MY deposit number, the media would use the M3 deposits to actual sales to make the MY deposit number seem meaningless and a desperate attempt by Tesla to impress investors.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah

I'd have to disagree. Tesla claimed 400,000 deposits on the M3 and I don't think they've sold that many to this day. I remember when the media reported that the refund rate was super high for the Model 3 and I figured it was more FUD. Turns out they were right on that one (apparently).

So, I think if they got bold with the MY deposit number, the media would use the M3 deposits to actual sales to make the MY deposit number seem meaningless and a desperate attempt by Tesla to impress investors.

This comment makes no sense. The 400k number was worldwide for all variants. Last time I checked SR only started being sold in late Q1 in US, in Q2 in Euro, and still not in China. I don't get why people don't get this. They haven't sold 400k 3's because they haven't had the resources to build 400k yet. It's like you expected them to ship 400k Model 3's in the first quarter that the Model 3 was available.