Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pras]

I'd have to disagree. Tesla claimed 400,000 deposits on the M3 and I don't think they've sold that many to this day. I remember when the media reported that the refund rate was super high for the Model 3 and I figured it was more FUD. Turns out they were right on that one (apparently).

So, I think if they got bold with the MY deposit number, the media would use the M3 deposits to actual sales to make the MY deposit number seem meaningless and a desperate attempt by Tesla to impress investors.

Two points.

-Tesla has sold 3s as many as they could build.
- these are preorders and not reservation. The expected time of delivery, the price and config and even the whole experience is available to customers before giving orders

 

[EVNow]

Tesla claimed 400,000 deposits on the M3 and I don't think they've sold that many to this day. I remember when the media reported that the refund rate was super high for the Model 3 and I figured it was more FUD. Turns out they were right on that one (apparently)

What was the actual rate claimed ?

When Tesla takes 3 years to start deliveries what would actually be a reasonable rate ?

With China, if they can deliver even 2k/wk within a year, they will get a very high rate of conversation.

For comparison Leaf had a conversation rate of something like 15%.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I'd have to disagree. Tesla claimed 400,000 deposits on the M3 and I don't think they've sold that many to this day. I remember when the media reported that the refund rate was super high for the Model 3 and I figured it was more FUD. Turns out they were right on that one (apparently).

So, I think if they got bold with the MY deposit number, the media would use the M3 deposits to actual sales to make the MY deposit number seem meaningless and a desperate attempt by Tesla to impress investors.

And if gold coins fell into your yard from the sky, I assume that would also be bad? I mean, there’s all that effort in lugging it to the bank.

Edit: seems to be a misunderstanding. We were talking about China pre-orders. Model 3 SR.

 

[Skryll]

Walmart and Target have deals with Electrify America so you will start seeing chargers. Just not ones the Model 3 can use since we have neither a CCS or CHADeMo adapter.

CCS adapter is coming.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/03/tesla-ccs-adapter-first-look/

 

[RobStark]

My mama would spend $20 in gas to drive to a grocery store giving away $10 hams. And I ain't BS'ing you!

My mama made me drive her to 3 or 4 supermarkets to save a few cents per pound on various produce.

And she insisted I take her to Costco on Saturday afternoon, because that is when they had the most free samples.

And I ain't BSing you either.

 

[RobStark]

CCS adapter is coming.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/03/tesla-ccs-adapter-first-look/

I think that is for Europe only.

 

[MikeC]

‎Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast on Apple Podcasts

 

[jerry33]

My mama made me drive her to 3 or 4 supermarkets to save a few cents per pound on various produce.

And she insisted I take her to Costco on Saturday afternoon, because that is when they had the most free samples.

And I ain't BSing you either.

It's hard not to think of prices of things as they were in your childhood. I recall that a common wage table went from 30 cents to 80 cents an hour. A few cents per pound on produce was a lot of money.

 

[AlMc]

My mama made me drive her to 3 or 4 supermarkets to save a few cents per pound on various produce.

And she insisted I take her to Costco on Saturday afternoon, because that is when they had the most free samples.

And I ain't BSing you either.

Continuing off topic: My dad would drive 20 m minutes out of his way to save 5 cents on a gallon of gas. After my original questioning him about the merits of this.....I gave up.

 

[HG Wells]

Yesterday there were only 12 Model 3's in available US inventory.
Today there are 35 !
THEY CANT SELL THEM !
BANKWUPCY !!!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yesterday there were only 12 Model 3's in available US inventory.
Today there are 35 !
THEY CANT SELL THEM !
BANKWUPCY !!!

Model X inventory in the USA has also increased over 100% -- shooting up from 9 to 22.

 

[Thekiwi]

Surprise 5% tariff hitting all Mexican imports from June 10th

Anyone have any idea what amount Tesla import from Mexico?

 

[neroden]

OT

Haha - nice. I think it's more the 40 layers of insane bureaucracy we have to wade through rather than ignorance, but it has exactly the same effect. You can't even buy a bottle of wine in Wholefoods (or any grocery store) in NYC and they recently bailed on legalizing pot.

The state's still going to legalize it, it's just taking a while to get through our infamous legislature (rated the worst in the nation for several decades, though it got better recently when the cabal of crooks who were gerrymandering it got tossed).

NYC... is its own thing. I substantially prefer living in Ithaca, and I actually avoid NYC due to a persistent bad attitude about disability rights, far worse than anywhere else I've been in the US.

 

[TMThree]

Well boys, today I joined your ranks. Bought a bunch at $187.55 in after market.

Last time we had a dip this major, it only hung around for 4 days before zooming back up. I don't see any reason for this not to at least have a technical bounce with a 50% retrace.

 

[neroden]

Unless they begin pre orders on a SR China version and are hit with a substantial number of pre orders soon after.

Nah, it still won't have an immediate effect.

*When the cash from the pre-orders shows up on the balance sheet in the Q2 10-K*, that might have an effect.

 

[TMThree]

Surprise 5% tariff hitting all Mexican imports from June 10th

Anyone have any idea what amount Tesla import form Mexico?

My car says 25%

 

[neroden]

OT

FC said " the gold standard brought us the thousand years long economic stagnation of the Middle Ages and the Great Depression and WWII after all."

That's some historical simplification you've got there.

Simplified, but pretty much accurate. (An important addition might be that the gold standard in the early Dark Ages was actually a *consequence* of the collapse of legitimate government at the end of the Roman Republic -- you can't convince people to use fiat money issued by an extremely untrustworthy source or a government which might be gone next week.)

 

[Thekiwi]

My car says 25%

View attachment 413841

25% is higher than I thought, although that is number of parts I assume rather than value? Eg a single USA part is the battery, which I would guess is worth more than all the Mexican supplied parts combined.

 

[MP3Mike]

I suspect the extensions with every referral aren't a mistake.

I think they meant for it to be that the expiration date would be reset to 6 months past your last referral. It makes no sense to extend it by 6 months with each referral. I think Bjorn has about 87 years to use his free supercharging credits at this point... Why have an expiration if you are going to let it be extended to 87 years?

 

[neroden]

My car says 25%

View attachment 413841

So, if 80% of the car cost is parts (20% being distribution & final assembly -- possibly an underestimate), then the 5% tariff should raise Tesla's car costs by about 1%.