Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Tesla can't technically CONTROL this, but the onus is on them to push this option and help get more saturation there. we agree that left to their own devices, peoperty owners and associations aren't going to do jack until absolutely necessary. Tesla needs to be aggressively proactive in getting chargers in these places, so that the 3's prime demographic can perceive it as a viable option. like i mentioned earlier, i personally know at least a handful of people who would love to own a Tesla, but haven't pulled the trigger because they can't charge at home or at work.

Yeah I don't know if they spend any effort on lobbying etc. That said, I do think public chargers are still growing pretty quickly. Any business that has them locally get's a nice email from me thanking them and I do prefer to shop there. KC has a pretty extensive chargepoint presence.

 

[sparcs]

Tesla can't technically CONTROL this, but the onus is on them to push this option and help get more saturation there. we agree that left to their own devices, peoperty owners and associations aren't going to do jack until absolutely necessary. Tesla needs to be aggressively proactive in getting chargers in these places, so that the 3's prime demographic can perceive it as a viable option. like i mentioned earlier, i personally know at least a handful of people who would love to own a Tesla, but haven't pulled the trigger because they can't charge at home or at work.

I think it's going to take a lot more pushing from tenants to get the owners of these buildings to figure out solutions. In your case, have these people you know actually talked to the building owners?

It would be hard for Tesla to have an impact at say an apartment complex that might only have one Tesla owner versus investing in a more public charging location.

 

[Pezpunk]

I think it's going to take a lot more pushing from tenants to get the owners of these buildings to figure out solutions. In your case, have these people you know actually talked to the building owners?

i doubt it. i'll ask them, though.

 

[elasalle]

btw, what's the theory of recalling the shares prior to June 11th vote?

 

[LN1_Casey]

i doubt it. i'll ask them, though.

I think it would be a bit more effort involved then just asking the landlord, especially if the said tenant doesn't already have a Tesla/electric car. For the landlord, it's putting in a charging port on a maybe, and I've no idea who your contacts are, but perhaps they're flaky and it would be another reason why they can't get a Tesla now that their place has a charger; want to pay off loans, planning on moving, etc, etc.

But hey, worse comes to it, at least it gets them thinking about it some more than just accepting the circumstances.

 

[mblakele]

btw, what's the theory of recalling the shares prior to June 11th vote?

No point now, is there? We're well past the date of record.

Meeting date: June 11, 2019
For stockholders as of: April 15, 2019​

 

[neroden]

What are your average buying prices for your shares?

I am in with an average of 209$ including expenses and 90 shares currently. I will be buying more if the SP reaches 170-175.

Average price is roughly the same as yours, but I have a lot more shares.

 

[neroden]

Cancelled orders could be included in the running sequence. And people cancelling one order to make a new one with different specs. Atleast that is how we did it when I worked on online shopping systems.



This is already happening. All the new premium electric cars get customers from this camp. Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Ioniq and newcomers like Mercedes EQC and Porsche Taycan.

The FUD campaigns against Tesla hit just as hard in Norway. The media love click bait headlines about Tesla. And negative news get the most clicks. Thr right wing party wants to tax electric cars as hard as ICE cars are taxed today. And my left-wing aunt recently lectured me on how electric cars and Tesla are destroying the environment.

Oh good grief. I assume you explained the truth to your aunt and told her she was being hoodwinked.

 

[hershey101]

Average price is roughly the same as yours, but I have a lot more shares.

Nice way of saying @neroden is loaded
FYI, I'll be up in Ithaca next week @neroden we should meet up and talk $TSLA

 

[neroden]

Your point is correct that this doesn't matter so long as the PBOC can create liquidity at the flick of a policy pen to fill the gap. The banks stay liquid and can continue bailing out failed borrowers subject to industrial policy. But at some point your, the central bank's policy wiggle room to do this without pure printing recedes. And without pure printing, I don't see how you maintain the highly managed exchange rate.

I assume you mean "with pure printing of money, you don't see how to manage the exchange rate".

This is well understood in exchange rate theory. There are three tools, and the one China uses to manipulate the exchange rate is capital controls. A "convertible yuan/renminbi" is worth more than a "non-convertible yuan/renminbi". The effect of high domestic yuan printing, with controlled exchange rates between the convertible yuan and the dollar, is to increase the difference in value between the domestic yuan and the convertible yuan. This has some weird effects, but they're already happening and have been for years. One of them is to drive investment differentially into China rather than abroad. Another is that people will do whatever they can to get their money converted to foreign currency, which has been going on for years, so they'll buy overseas assets when possible.

 

[Christine69420]

Oh good grief. I assume you explained the truth to your aunt and told her she was being hoodwinked.

Yes I did. And am. She is staying with us for a few days and we have taken several trips. I think she is opening her eyes.

 

[mrmage]

Chamath Palihapitiya said that buying bonds in Tesla was like free options on the stock without the downside risk of holding the stock.

This is quite a statement, but I don't think the upside is as favorable as owning the stock...

Can someone clarify this for me as I have never purchased an individual company's bond before.

Thanks.

Someone gave you the wrong information on these, so I'm chiming in. Specifically, I'll use the Tesla 2024 convertibles as an example since this is what I bought. I'll also assume Tesla SP is $190 for the calculations. I'm new to corporate convertible bonds, but not totally new to convertible debt.
CUSIP 88160RAG6
Bonds Detail

The bond component of a convertible is like a normal bond, where it pays interest and pays back the face value at maturity. In the case of 88160RAG6, they're trading just below $90 for $100 face value and pay 2% a year. This means you get paid simple interest of $10 for 5 years plus $10 profit from trading below $100, which is $20 / $90 / 5 = 4.4%.

The bonds also have an option (but not required) to convert to Tesla shares at a minimum ratio of 3.22 per $1000 of bonds. The conversion price is therefore ~$310 a share or lower. You would only convert if the current SP is above the conversion price of course to net an immediate profit.

If Telsa SP is $500 in 2024, you'll make (500 - 310) = $190 / share = $59 / bond. Add the $20 from interest and discounted price today for a profit of $79 per bond, or 87% profit after 5 years.

Doing similar math for convertibles and summarizing 5 years out:
If Tesla SP is $10, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $95, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $190, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $310, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $500, profit is 87%
If Tesla SP is $1000, profit is 260%
If Tesla SP is $4000, profit is 1294%

Compare this to to buying shares.
If Tesla SP is $10, profit is -95%
If Tesla SP is $95, profit is -50%
If Tesla SP is $190, profit is 0%
If Tesla SP is $310, profit is 63%
If Tesla SP is $4000, profit is 2000%

I look at it this way, but this is solely my opinion.

1. I'm buying Tesla because it may go up 5x or 10x. If it only goes up 10% annually, I might as well invest in bonds or more conservative stocks. The convertibles ensure a profit except in the most unlikely case (bankruptcy AND assets can't cover debt). Even so, I should get a good chunk back in the worst case.

2. Although convertibles with TSLA SP $4000 nets 1/3 less than buying stock outright, the additional security and profit lets me invest more than double what I would with stocks. In the big win scenario, I'm ahead. And in the lose scenario, I'm ahead.

Some other pluses for convertibles:
1. There's cases where the conversion ratio increases (share price is cheaper) if Tesla has a change of control (bought out) for around $250 and higher. This adds extra profit in the event things don't work out.
2. Conversion is possible anytime if SP stays above ~30% + conversion price for awhile.
3. Bond holders may even come out whole or mostly whole in the event of bankruptcy, assuming Tesla assets are worth a decent amount.
4. Convertible bonds can be sold and bought like stocks, but goes down about half the rate of TSLA stock when it falls.

Disadvantages:
1. The spread for convertibles ranges from 1-4 points, so it's much higher than stocks, but generally better than options.

 

[neroden]

to add insult to injury during this plummet over the last few months -
i haven’t had the good luck that others here have had in trying to sway people to buy ev over ice. so far for a few reasons;

1) friend from work bought an A4 over model 3 bc he lives in manhattan, street parks,

OK, so your friend is insane to start with. Living in Manhattan and owning a car is crazy to start with, but doing so without a private parking space is even crazier.

He was a lost cause.

and doesn’t want to wait around charging. even though we’ve opened up many new stations in the reinstate area, also i pleaded with him to compare expenses and weigh the extra minutes of charging versus about $100 more in gas cost alone per mo.
let alone maint..over life of ownership.

didn’t budge - lost.

2) still fighting
my girlfriends friend - lives and covers territory for work in greenville section of NC. also no charging at home,

Come on, can't she get charging at home? Greenville, NC isn't Manhattan. She's not parking on random street corners each night, is she?

but the SC network looks bleak in her area within 45 min drive. she wants to do it, but it depends on the expectation of charging (im checking supercharger info and chargepoint - and she’s going to get back to me with more accurate map of her work territory. also will inquire with her apt complex

3) still fighting
i’m working on my best friends wife to allow him to purchase. i put together the relevant spreadsheet of cost comparison.
shes all about monthly payment rather than life of ownership. i’m still working on that one too.

moral of story;
the early adopters, i know dozens of people who have already purchased and who have followed tesla close enough to be considered “in the know”. certainly know more than the hack ‘journalists’ in MSM. maybe don’t know as much as many posters here. but we’re just weird, so it’s understandable. we’ve already had some people buy due to experiencing our cars. now we’re out on the fringe cases and into the next wave of customers who aren’t following closely but who’s interest is piqued.

my record so far is - unsuccessful in 1, possibly limited by charging on another, and a sticker-jaded wife on the 3rd (even though i explained that they’d basically need to buy a used car for like 10k less for their usage rate to break even over life of ownership). i’m still battling for victory on that one. and i’m betting that if they get it, shell be the one who ends up driving it most anyway

Informative.

 

[jerry33]

but why can't you guys see that this philosophy SUCKS for the vast majority of Model 3 prospects, who CANT charge at home or at work? they don't want to sit for 4 hours at a destination charger once a week. they want to get lunch/coffee at a supercharger and be stuck for 20-30 minutes, tops. how can anyone in an urban area, townhome, or apartment be expected to buy a Tesla if their only charging options completely suck?

That is why some of these locations need urban SCs. I'd suggest that the majority of them don't. The real answer is for apartments and condos to have charging spots available, but that's going to take time.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

That is why some of these locations need urban SCs. I'd suggest that the majority of them don't. The real answer is for apartments and condos to have charging spots available, but that's going to take time.

This is absolutely the truth. My son just selected an apartment for the sole reason that they had garages with outlets to charge available. As this becomes more of the renter/buyer expectation then properties will be forced to make these upgrades to stay competitive. However, as you say, this will take time.

Dan

 

[Thumper]

I can't remember if I posted this idea already or not. With the conversion to smart electric meters everywhere, those dumb meters could be used in apartment and condo charging situations to charge individuals for their true cost of charging. It would repurpose the meters instead of whatever happens to them now. Electric companies should make them available free or cheap to encourage apartment/condo charging.

 

[Pras]

So is there any event in China tomorrow or just the website opens?

 

[elasalle]

• Uber reported earnings for the first time as a public company on Thursday after the bell.
• Uber reported a net loss of $1.01 billion for the quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations.
• The company reported total revenue of $3.10 billion, at the top end of its preliminary estimates for the quarter.

up 3.8%

 

[Tslynk67]

If Q2 is a surprise win for deliveries these analysts that predict stock will go to $10 should all be fired.

If they were actually guiding investment decisions, yes, but reality is that they're just trying to influence the SP, one way or another.

 

[Nocturnal]

This is absolutely the truth. My son just selected an apartment for the sole reason that they had garages with outlets to charge available. As this becomes more of the renter/buyer expectation then properties will be forced to make these upgrades to stay competitive. However, as you say, this will take time.

Dan

Even 110 would be enough for many people with short commutes. Do a nightly +40-50 range increase and top off at an SC on the weekend. Still easier than pumping gas. Existing garages often have 110 outlets already.