Oh come on. A simple exponential projection is actually sufficient to have been correct on BEV adoption in general (meaning worldwide) for the last decade. And for solar adoption, too. For wind adoption the exponential *might possibly* be flattening out now, but it's too soon to be sure.
(There's something to be said for simple models with very few variables to tweak -- it's harder to accidentally put your subconscious biases into them. Jhm has talked about this over on the Shorting Oil thread.)
All the other evidence is supporting.
Predicting TSLA is of course harder. I didn't say I made *detailed* predictions.
I said I had a ton of knowledge and was therefore able to make some reasonably accurate predictions. They're not detailed. "Will do better in a recession than an index filled with fossil fuel stocks" is a prediction, but not a detailed prediction (that's one I have made).
I'm also predicting fairly near-term human extinction (the evidence is pretty strong), but I think people would rather not talk about that. I'd like to avoid it, but the prediction has a strong likelihood.
Yep. Me too -- including the bit about spending most of my time assessing risks. And like you, I could always stop having good results. I can still make some pretty accurate predictions.
Perhaps "forecast" is too strong a word for the sort of accurate predictions I was making regarding Tesla, given their vagueness.
