Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

Yes, it was a specific design point of GF1. I think it was also mentioned in the environmental report that Tesla recently released.

“
One unique aspect of Gigafactory 1 is that there is no natural gas
line within the factory. Tesla made this decision at the design stage because we wanted a sustainably-powered facility with no on-site combustion of fossil fuels. While challenging to achieve from a design perspective due to manufacturing processes that require high levels of energy or heat (like high-temperature ovens), Tesla engineered thermal systems to maximize heat recovery resulting in significant energy efficiency gains compared to standard industrial designs.
This included using heat pumps to upgrade low-temperature waste heat from manufacturing, thus reducing the energy used to heat the facility by over 80% compared to traditional electric heaters and is expected to save over 16K MWh in the winter season. The facility
also has a heat exchanger system to recover more than 60% of the heat from the exhaust of industrial ovens.
”

Page 28 of https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-impact-report-2019.pdf

 

[neroden]

OT

Much of this is actually backwards. Our vision system is one of the simplest parts of the human brain and probably the most well understood part of it(still not all that well understood in its entirety, but far more so than most other systems).

Human audio processing is unbelievably complex. The sort of thing which could only have evolved (nobody would design it that way). That said, it does some really impressive tricks.

 

[StealthP3D]

It can get the position of objects / pedestrians (even pedestrian's limbs) at a higher accuracy and repeatability than cameras can (currently). A key problem with cameras is inconsistency (you know, the march of the 9's).

You are a little confused here. It's not cameras that map the position of objects/pedestrians, it's the computer, the camera just sends the visual data. LIDAR FSD needs cameras too and the combined system is still having trouble with consistency. The recent LIDAR pedestrian death? That was because the system was so unpredictable the engineers had to turn off the automatic emergency braking (to avoid very serious phantom braking events). LIDAR has serious problems in terms of integrating the LIDAR data into the other data streams. Some serious computational power is needed and that's why development teams who chose to go the LIDAR route are up against a wall.

 

[neroden]

Wonder if we see some fiery questions tomorrow at the shareholders meeting from upset stock holders directed at Elon. This is the first shareholder meeting since 420 etc. and there’s usually a couple quirky ones every year.

Hopefully about the customer communications fiascos. That's the area where Musk & management need to WAKE UP. (That and infotainment, but the communications are much more severe.)

 

[neroden]

Employees sour on Tesla amid cost-cutting, layoffs - Reuters

Tesla placed 16th on LinkedIn’s annual “Top Companies 2019” list published in April, compiled from billions of actions taken by its over 600 million users that indicate job interest and demand. It held the fifth and sixth spots in 2018 and 2017, respectively.

At jobs site Glassdoor, Tesla’s overall company rating fell to 3.2 out of 5.0 stars based on reviews written in the first quarter from a high of 3.6 in 2017, according to historical data compiled by Glassdoor at Reuters’ request. The average rating of the nearly 1 million employers reviewed on the site is 3.4.

In the first quarter, Elon Musk’s CEO approval rating dropped to 52% from 90% in 2017.

Tesla’s “recommend to a friend” rating fell to 49% in the first quarter from a high of 71% two years prior, the Glassdoor data showed.

--------------------------

Most folks here will discount this article.

But it's notable that CEO approval rating dropped to 52% from 90%. That's significant.

And it's also notable that "recommend to a friend" dropped as well.

This is from employee reviews/ratings.

Not a good sign.

Pffft. I'm surprised it was previously rated as high as it was given the management chaos and erraticness. Of course, with the stock price dropping, everyone's pay effectively dropped too. I figure this is basically just reverting to reality -- there must have been more than a little bit of bubble/cult thinking in the previous ratings.

 

[Mike Smith]

I would take it with a grain of salt.

1. Glassdoor can't verify identity. I bet some of the ratings are from bashers, especially professional bashers. We know shorts want to push Elon out. They think they will win if they can get rid off Elon Musk.
2. I'm not surprised if the true rating fell anyway. Moral is extremely important, I hope Tesla treat it seriously.
3. I knew a company had serious moral problem a few years ago, lots of competent people left. It was so bad that after internal survey, the company refused to show the results to the employees. Ironically, the stock went up 700% since then.

The employees all have stock / stock options. That's why they're a bit salty right now. Take the pole again when we're over 300

 

[neroden]

Are you sure GF-1 has no natural gas supply?

Yes, Tesla said so specifically. It allows them to avoid paying for the natural gas connection (a fee of tens of thousands of dollars -- probably was given to Tesla free in Shanghai, though), and allows them to eliminate ventilation for combustion products from most of their process rooms.

For high-grade heat, natural gas is a much better option than electricity.

Unless you want to be efficient, by eliminating combustion ventilation, which is what they did at GF-1.

If you can remove the ventilation you can preserve most of the heat from one heating event to the next, which is *super* efficient -- the best way to heat is to start with an already-hot room -- but you can't do this if you have combustion products which you need to remove from the air. Tesla *specifically said* that they were using this efficiency technique at GF-1, and I strongly suspect that it is overall more efficient than using gas for process heat and then blowing half the heat out while ventilating the combustion products.

I figure the gas line at GF-3 is for the paint shop, as I said before. Fremont uses gas for the paint shop heating. The paint shop requires ventilation for the paint fumes, so you can't use the efficiency technique used at GF-1 of eliminating ventilation.

TLDR: the energy savings from eliminating ventilation and recycling heat likely exceeds the savings from using gas rather than electricity for heat, so *where you can eliminate ventilation*, electrical heat is probably more cost-effective. *Where ventilation remains necessary*, such as the paint shop, this does not apply.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not really. Think about it, even the really small brained animals have good vision. Infact some of them have better vision than us. It is the general intelligence that is far more complex and distinguishes humans from other mammals.

Exactly! I'm glad you're calling out the misinformation people feel the need to present here as fact.

Even a dragonfly, with a brain not much larger than a grain of sand, has enough visual computational power to navigate through foliage and complex branches/leaves fluttering in the wind in a 3D space without a problem.

They don't have lidar or any form of echo-location! It's all done with very crude eyes/brain.

The FUD just keeps getting repeated time and time again around here by people who can't hold a candle to the technical knowledge possessed by Musk and team.

 

[Beltsbear]

Mmmm

Are you sure GF-1 has no natural gas supply?

For high-grade heat, natural gas is a much better option than electricity.

as it costs about 1/3 the price if heat is all that is needed.

 

[NicoV]

That Audi e-tron recall is really bad, according to local Belgian news: Audi moet 'Brusselse' e-tron terugroepen

“Er zijn nog geen dergelijke gevallen bekend, maar toch moeten alle wagens die gebouwd zijn sinds de productiestart in september 2018 en midden maart 2019 terug naar de dealer. Omdat de herstelling tot augustus kan duren krijgen de Amerikaanse eigenaars van een e-tron gedurende die periode een vervangwagen en een kaart met 800 dollar ter compensatie. ”

Translation: All cars built since production start 2019 en mid march 2019 need to be fixed. The repair can take untill august and the (1.644 ) American e-tron owners get a replacement car and a card with 800 USD compensation.

The part in question is an out-of-spec third party part.

 

[Beltsbear]

Exactly! I'm glad you're calling out the misinformation people feel the need to present here as fact.

Even a dragonfly, with a brain not much larger than a grain of sand, has enough visual computational power to navigate through foliage and complex branches/leaves fluttering in the wind in a 3D space without a problem.

Dragonflies do crash and crash often when compared to cars. Crashing does not usually hurt them. But a bad example as they are probably only 99.99 percent accurate. Lidar and Tesla are both better at nav then a dragonfly.

 

[mongo]

That Audi e-tron recall is really bad, according to local Belgian news: Audi moet 'Brusselse' e-tron terugroepen

“Er zijn nog geen dergelijke gevallen bekend, maar toch moeten alle wagens die gebouwd zijn sinds de productiestart in september 2018 en midden maart 2019 terug naar de dealer. Omdat de herstelling tot augustus kan duren krijgen de Amerikaanse eigenaars van een e-tron gedurende die periode een vervangwagen en een kaart met 800 dollar ter compensatie. ”

Translation: All cars built since production start 2019 en mid march 2019 need to be fixed. The repair can take untill august and the (1.644 ) American e-tron owners get a replacement car and a card with 800 USD compensation.

The part in question is an out-of-spec third party part.

If the part has been used since start of production, then either Audi's vehicle testing is deficient, or their PPAP/ incoming inspection process is.

 

[canoemore]

Dragonflies do crash and crash often when compared to cars. Crashing does not usually hurt them. But a bad example as they are probably only 99.99 percent accurate. Lidar and Tesla are both better at nav then a dragonfly.

That's a remarkably blasé claim. A quick literature search didn't turn up any studies for me that compare collision rates of Anisopterans to autonomous vehicles. Perhaps I'm looking in the wrong place...

 

[MP3Mike]

That Audi e-tron recall is really bad, according to local Belgian news: Audi moet 'Brusselse' e-tron terugroepen

“Er zijn nog geen dergelijke gevallen bekend, maar toch moeten alle wagens die gebouwd zijn sinds de productiestart in september 2018 en midden maart 2019 terug naar de dealer. Omdat de herstelling tot augustus kan duren krijgen de Amerikaanse eigenaars van een e-tron gedurende die periode een vervangwagen en een kaart met 800 dollar ter compensatie. ”

Translation: All cars built since production start 2019 en mid march 2019 need to be fixed. The repair can take untill august and the (1.644 ) American e-tron owners get a replacement car and a card with 800 USD compensation.

The part in question is an out-of-spec third party part.

The weird part to me is:

For the time being, only in the US cars were recalled to the garages. But since the models were also sold in other countries, it is obvious that there will also be recalls elsewhere the following days.

Why are they currently only recalling US ones? Do they not care about fires elsewhere?

 

[JusRelax]

That CEO rating drop is amazingly bad. Might have to do with his FSD claims.

I heard it was a personal hygiene issue - no time for showers.

Fred told me it's because everyone has to bring their own toilet paper.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla getting advertised on British TV (primetime on major channel) for free - from fossil burning power company no less.

Wow! That is a powerful advertisement for electric transport that will help change the way people think about it. It put Tesla in a very positive light.

It made me want to go buy another EV (even though we don't need anymore).

 

[NicoV]

The weird part to me is:



Why are they currently only recalling US ones? Do they not care about fires elsewhere?

From the same article “Voorlopig werden enkel in de VS auto's naar de garages teruggeroepen. Maar omdat er de modellen ook in andere landen werden verkocht, ligt het voor de hand dat er ook elders terugroepacties komen de volgende dagen. In ons land maakt D'Ieteren zich op voor een terugroepactie, maar de Belgische invoerder van Audi had gisteren nog geen cijfers over het aantal wagens dat betrokken is.”

The journalist makes the assumption that the recall will also be announced in other countries. The Belgian distributor is already preparing for a recall.

My interpretation: it might be an issue with the US charge port only.

 

[acoste]

You are a little confused here. It's not cameras that map the position of objects/pedestrians, it's the computer, the camera just sends the visual data. LIDAR FSD needs cameras too and the combined system is still having trouble with consistency. The recent LIDAR pedestrian death? That was because the system was so unpredictable the engineers had to turn off the automatic emergency braking (to avoid very serious phantom braking events). LIDAR has serious problems in terms of integrating the LIDAR data into the other data streams. Some serious computational power is needed and that's why development teams who chose to go the LIDAR route are up against a wall.

Source?
This is the first time I hear Lidar and phantom braking in the same sentence...

 

[Steve m]

OT


Human audio processing is unbelievably complex. The sort of thing which could only have evolved (nobody would design it that way). That said, it does some really impressive tricks.

Yes... Exactly... This is why lyrics to rock songs are easily comprehensible

 

[ggr]

The weird part to me is:



Why are they currently only recalling US ones? Do they not care about fires elsewhere?

I have a friend with an Audi RS6 in Australia, and he has threatened lawsuits multiple times to get repairs done there that were the subject of recalls in the US and Germany. Audi (and probably others in the VW group) only issue recalls when they can't get away with ignoring the issues.