Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

Sorry to barge in after being away for a long time from TMC. Ihor (Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter) is on Twitter claiming that currently we have the highest short interest ever in TSLA (not in $$$ but in % of the float) and we know there's some delay to the numbers. So short sellers were shorting all the way down to $177? They probably saw the "free falling" stock price as evidence for their thesis that Tesla was heading for bancruptcy? Is it really possible to be that stupid? And if so, wouldn't this mean that (once again) TSLA is like a loaded spring waiting to rebound with a vengance?

Short low, cover high. I’m fine with them doing that.

 

[dc_h]

~4 million/day

They'd switch one line at a time. But that's a long ways off. Maxwell hasn't run DBE at anywhere near the scale of a single Panasonic line. They were supposedly building a test line, which I figure would make something like a few thousand cells per day. They'd put these in some Powerpacks which they own or at least manage and monitor continuously. They'd also assemble some custom Model 3 packs to put into employee cars or something. Once proven they (or Pana, etc.) would build a new line using DBE. Then a few more. Eventually they'd probably circle back and replace the electrode coating portion of the existing lines at GF1, but that's lower priority. Scrapping new equipment rarely makes financial sense.​

The Maxwell cells would make sense for the Roadster to start, share you never have to scale. After the Roadster possibly use for Semi testing and then new Long range SX and 3/Y and the pickup.

 

[urarthur]

It makes perfect sense for Tesla to build it's own battery cells.

EV's are the future and battery demand is only going to rise from here on, so why outsource such astrategically important part of your business to another company? Surely they have learned all that there is to learn from Pana all these years. If Elon can build rockets, he sure can build batteries.

The Maxwell acquisition, the news that Panasonic no longer was investing in Giga 1, and the fact that they haven't announced any battery supplier for Shanghai Giga all point to in-house cell production.

Only problem is that they have an agreement to buy $15.7 billion (from the 10k) worth of Lithium batteries from Pana by end of 2023. Not sure how they can circumvent this.

 

[mongo]

It makes perfect sense for Tesla to build it's own battery cells.

EV's are the future and battery demand is only going to rise from here on, so why outsource such an strategically important aspect of your business to another company? Surely they have learned all that there is to learn from Pana all these years. If Elon can build rockets, he sure can build batteries.

The Maxwell acquisition, the news that Panasonic no longer was investing in Giga 1, and the fact that they haven't announced any battery supplier for Shanghai Giga all point to in-house cell production.

Only problem is that they have an agreement to buy $15.7 billion worth of Lithium batteries from Pana by end of 2023. Not sure how they can circumvent this.

$15.7 billion at $100/kWh = 157 GWh = 35 GWh (GF1 output) * 4.5 years (end of 2023). Makes sense to use the equipment already in place and average down the cost with the new lines. At this point they are cell constrained anyway.

 

[dc_h]

Yes, a bolt of lightning carries about 1 Billion joules of energy, or about 278 Kwh. Given the average charging efficiency of 80%, that bolt could recharge a 200 KWh Roadster pack in about 30 microseconds.

Problem is, then you'd have to call it the 'Roaster'.

Or send it into the future!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Sorry to barge in after being away for a long time from TMC. Ihor (Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter) is on Twitter claiming that currently we have the highest short interest ever in TSLA (not in $$$ but in % of the float) and we know there's some delay to the numbers. So short sellers were shorting all the way down to $177? They probably saw the "free falling" stock price as evidence for their thesis that Tesla was heading for bancruptcy? Is it really possible to be that stupid? And if so, wouldn't this mean that (once again) TSLA is like a loaded spring waiting to rebound with a vengance?

One would hope.

 

[PhaseWhite]

At 7:35, some guys claims that a Prius buyer does not buy a Model S or X or a 3. Guess what: I’m a Prius buyer who bought both a Model S and a Model 3.

Still have my Prius. And an S and a 3...

 

[sparcs]

Sorry to barge in after being away for a long time from TMC. Ihor (Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter) is on Twitter claiming that currently we have the highest short interest ever in TSLA (not in $$$ but in % of the float) and we know there's some delay to the numbers. So short sellers were shorting all the way down to $177? They probably saw the "free falling" stock price as evidence for their thesis that Tesla was heading for bancruptcy? Is it really possible to be that stupid? And if so, wouldn't this mean that (once again) TSLA is like a loaded spring waiting to rebound with a vengance?

And this is all with Elon saying that we're near a record quarter. We're pretty late in the quarter for Elon to be massively wrong at this point. Are they betting on lack of institutional support for the share price until the numbers are reported?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Sorry to barge in after being away for a long time from TMC. Ihor (Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter) is on Twitter claiming that currently we have the highest short interest ever in TSLA (not in $$$ but in % of the float) and we know there's some delay to the numbers. So short sellers were shorting all the way down to $177? They probably saw the "free falling" stock price as evidence for their thesis that Tesla was heading for bancruptcy? Is it really possible to be that stupid? And if so, wouldn't this mean that (once again) TSLA is like a loaded spring waiting to rebound with a vengance?

I don’t believe it is possible for *all* ‘short low, cover high’ operators to be that stupid. Which leaves the only possible explanation that some large operators are sponsored, by <insert Tesla enemy>.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

it still amazes me that people just will not accept how advertising works, or even be so convinced it doesn't work at all (normally on *them* because they are *smart*). Please read 'the advertised mind'. Do people REALLY think that hundreds of billions of dollars get spent every year globally without anybody ever looking into it whether or not it works?

 

[abasile]

But if you think about it, all his businesses are simply trial runs for Mars Elonization©. Mining base materials will be a huge part of that, so perhaps he's considering it more than we imagine.

Yes, he has his sights on becoming the "Elon" of Mars!

Seriously, though, I'm confident that Elon will not push for Tesla to get into mining unless it's clearly necessary in the here and now. And Tesla's vertical integration has been primarily driven by the company's needs, not merely the desire to reduce costs.

 

[dc_h]

And this is all with Elon saying that we're near a record quarter. We're pretty late in the quarter for Elon to be massively wrong at this point. Are they betting on lack of institutional support for the share price until the numbers are reported?

They’ve blocked out anything but the tslaq echo chamber. I suppose we are blocked from bearish news as well, but Tesla seems or track for 40-50% growth this year and better in 2020 and 2021 as Shanghai scales up, followed by GF4. The key is if they can maintain demand, which seems under control and improving margins, which will follow increasing production. Reducing production loss and increasing capacity by Panasonic on the cell side is probably the lowest hanging fruit right now, followed by supply chain / procurement opportunities and then production at Fremont. The opportunity for steady capacity improvements seems much clearer today the a year ago.

 

[abasile]

A simple commercial detailing the basics about the range, charging in your garage, the supercharger map, a blip about the performance, etc - and ending with a picture of the Model 3, and then lastly under the car - "Starting at $35,400 www.tesla.com".

I feel that Tesla would then have to start making the $35,400 car available for online ordering. Probably not a good idea until there's ample battery cell production capacity.

 

[ZachF]

I'm thinking more and more that lower priced EVs like the model 3 will hold their value much better than similar ICE cars.

AS cars get older fuel and maintenance costs take up more and more of the total cost of ownership pie... but 'fuel' and maintenance are so much lower on EVs that a used $15k EV is going to have the same TCOE of an ICE have that has a significantly lower price.

I'm thinking this effect will make ICEs depreciate much lower than ICe cars.

 

[AlMc]

Sorry to barge in after being away for a long time from TMC. Ihor (Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter) is on Twitter claiming that currently we have the highest short interest ever in TSLA (not in $$$ but in % of the float) and we know there's some delay to the numbers. So short sellers were shorting all the way down to $177? They probably saw the "free falling" stock price as evidence for their thesis that Tesla was heading for bancruptcy? Is it really possible to be that stupid? And if so, wouldn't this mean that (once again) TSLA is like a loaded spring waiting to rebound with a vengance?

Good to see you. Thought you had been kidnapped by TSLAQ.

 

[abasile]

WOWzers!!

They increased their TSLA holding by 0.3%.

I’m going to add a couple more shares to my account now.

/s

ARK has been buying, not selling, Tesla securities for some time now.

 

[Johan]

Good to see you. Thought you had been kidnapped by TSLAQ.

I was kidnapped by life I suppose you could say... Not in a bad way though. Sometimes you find out the hard way that there are only 24 hours in each day.

 

[dmckinstry]

I hope someone at Tesla IR will ask themselves what did we do wrong to cause a 4% drop after meeting with our shareholders.

Remember the after hours high yesterday was at least $224. I figure that those watched the meeting carefully realized TSLA is drastically undervalued. The rest had to spend the night making up excuses to drive the price down.

 

[VValleyEV]

I was thinking about FUD and mainstream media. Here are the ones whose inclusion on the list of those publishing persistent, misleading anti-Tesla pieces bothers me the most:

• New York Times
• Los Angeles Times
• Consumer Reports

These are very highly-trusted and revered publications, IMHO deservedly so.

If just one of these publications changed their tune, I think it it would make a huge difference.

Assuming Tesla is wildly successful in the next few years, they will presumably be forced to change with the times. In the meantime, is there any hope of moving them even slightly?

 

[SO16]

Here is my response to another response of his:

So if we go with that, how are you saying Tesla gets there?

1. Assume that every owner is going to use their vehicle as a Robotaxi since that’s about how many cars will have AP2 and above by then?

Or

2. He produces an extra million cars to just be Robotaxis by then?

Either scenario isn’t plausible. It doesn’t pass the “smell test”. This is where “investigative” reporting should come into play. If you can’t read his mind, perhaps at least include the full quote. Let others determine if his misstatement “adds to the first” or conflicts.

I’m not sure how to take Tesla not responding. It could either be that they agree with what you wrote (which I doubt is the case) or they think it is futile. Maybe another reason...not sure.


On Jun 12, 2019, at 4:38 PM, Mitchell, Russ <[email protected]> wrote:

ps the statements don’t conflict. the second part adds to the first

tesla has not complained about my story btw. when they do have a beef w me they let me know

Russ Mitchell
Los Angeles Times
Automotive Technology
510-599-4500

Below is his response to the above. I’m thinking on how to answer him. I’d like to say: “Because this is common sense to anyone who has remotely any knowledge of Tesla and doesn't exist for the sole purpose to trash Elon/Tesla at every turn.” But....



On Jun 12, 2019, at 6:14 PM, Mitchell, Russ <[email protected]> wrote:

If he misstated himself, why didn’t he tweet or otherwise clarify? He may well have intended to be misunderstood.

>It doesn’t pass the “smell test”.

That’s the whole point!

R

From: >
Date: June 12, 2019 at 2:30:02 PM
To: Mitchell, Russ <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Robotaxi Elon softens claims.

It doesn’t pass the “smell test”.

Russ Mitchell
Los Angeles Times
Automotive - Reporting and Analysisutomobiles -