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Agree. For completeness : the Netherlands is currently running about 800 ahead from Q1 and Spain is 140 behind. I am expecting a surge from 20/6 onwards because that the start of short range deliveries.
I didn’ t realise that all deliveries up to now have been long range. Must be good for the margins.
 
I didn’ t realise that all deliveries up to now have been long range. Must be good for the margins.

One assumes Norway is indicative of the overall EU mix:

upload_2019-6-14_19-43-3.png
 
I'm sure you were at your Service Center, but that varies considerably among service centers. If I lived in California it wouldn't be an issue as I see people commenting on how some there are way better than others, but I live in Pennsylvania where there are only 4 service centers for our entire huge state and 2 are located close to one another outside of Philly and 2 are located outside of Pittsburgh with 80% of the state nowhere near any of them let alone having a choice of which to pick. I go to New Jersey on the rare instance now that I need service and that is over an hour away. The service is fine but it isn't great. That's my point. There is no consistency.

Not all CA service centers are great either.
The last time I walked into one to ask about a part in stock, there was just 1 person at the service counter and about 7 to 8 people in line (this was during late afternoon commute time). Never did they request for additional service person to come help. All the while, there were 4 sales advisors just chatting about 20 feet away.

The mobile tech guys on the other hand are terrific. Unfortunately, they’re obviously limited to what they can service. They’re like an MA but you need a MD sometimes.
 
Every single year ~4 million new car customers enter the market at the young end, and ~3 million stop buying cars at the older, ICE end of the demographic wave - in the U.S. alone.
This dynamic is a bit different than the raw numbers would indicate, for two reasons. First, a fair percentage of youngsters don't and won't drive -- it's just not the thing it used to be. Second, when FSD works we'll see lots of those oldsters becoming Tesla customers rather than non-drivers. That will be huge.
 
They could temporarily install one to test the car and reuse for the next one.

OK, so now you can test the car, but how do you move it from the factory to the loading dock, from the dock onto the ship, and then from the ship to the dock, and from the dock to the SC to get the computer/screen installed? That creates a lot more work/delay in the logistics that they can't afford right now. No way it is worth it. (Especially since they just pass the cost on to the purchaser, it doesn't cost Tesla anything.)

If the board costs 1 grand add another 250 for the tariff multiply by 40,000 a quarter and you get 10 million a quarter.

Why do you think Tesla raised the price of the Model 3 by $400 when they were denied exemption from the tariff?
 
No, the higher the short interest the lower the stock price will be. (Because they are creating "extra" shares therefore lowering demand on the existing ones.) When they start covering is when we will see the stock price start to go up.

Technically there is no limit to the number of shares that they can short, but practically there is some limit.
Actually, in Q3/Q4 short interest was not inverse of SP. Last week as SP rose, short interest rose, which shows shorts are still fully committed to their bankruptcy narrative. Why wouldn't they ? They get daily confirmation from mass media - I'm sure they are in a media bubble.

Anyway, Ihor thinks they have 6M to 8M more shares to short and then they won't be able to barrow anymore. Its going to be interesting couple of weeks.

ps : After Fred's article - and high volume looks like SP went up a net of $1 ;)
 
Not wrong. Hopefully those layoffs in service will fix some of that. As an(other) anecdote: This last week we had a heat wave here, temps up over 100F. My wife was sitting in the car when parked and noticed the AC was blowing warm air, despite being set to 66F. Eventually had to leave the car. I called in about it, the woman on the phone said she checked the logs, didn't see any errors and asked if I had any other questions. GEE, THANKS.
Did she have it set on drawing outside air rather than recycling inside air. The latter will give much better results in very hot weather.
 
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I just contacted Meijer through their support page thanking them for their support of Tesla and their Superchargers. I made it clear to Meijer that I make a point to shop there more often.

I think other Tesla owners should show their support by letting these places know. I also make a point to stay at hotels with Tesla/EV chargers even if I don’t need to use them. I make a point to tell them that they got my business specifically because they support Teslas / EVs. They seem to really appreciate hearing that information.

Here is what I wrote to Meijer:

“This isn’t a complaint. I just wanted to say thank you for supporting Tesla by having Superchargers at many of your locations. I am a Tesla owner and have used quite a few of those Superchargers like in Cadillac, Traverse City and Gaylord. I have shopped at Meijer for years but now I make a point to shop there much more often and use my Meijer card more often as well. I am a big supporter of Tesla and it’s great to see that Meijer is too.

Keep up the great work with supporting Tesla! I will certainly continue to support Meijer!”

This was their response:

Thank you for taking the time to contact Meijer regarding the electric superchargers that we offer at our gas stations. We are delighted to hear about your positive experience!

Meijer is committed to providing our customers with a comfortable, welcoming, and friendly shopping environment. We value your opinion and appreciate it when you share with us that we are meeting our high standards.

I am forwarding your message to the appropriate department for review, and also documenting your feedback.

Thank you again for taking the time to write, and for shopping with Meijer. We appreciate your business and look forward to serving you again soon.

Sincerely,

Bill
Meijer Customer Care
 
New topic I’d like some thoughts on. Based on Ihor’s chart on historical short borrow % and total shares shorted, there was a shortage of available shares to short in 2016 at 28-32M level.

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) Tweeted:
@alex_avoigt @mthomasbenjamin @ValueAnalyst1 @KelvinYang7 Attached is a graph of $TSLA's stock borrow rate (offer rate) versus shares shorted since 2016 Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Currently we are at 46M shares shorted with anecdotes of 5-8 million more available to short. To me that’s a pretty stark difference in shares available to short between 2016 and today. 32M available then, 51M available now? Why the huge difference?

Factors could include new stock sold into the market by Tesla, more institutions offering shares for shorting now, shorting creating new shares that are also shorted.

Anybody smarter than I in the ways of the shorts want to weigh in on reasoning?
 
This dynamic is a bit different than the raw numbers would indicate, for two reasons. First, a fair percentage of youngsters don't and won't drive -- it's just not the thing it used to be. Second, when FSD works we'll see lots of those oldsters becoming Tesla customers rather than non-drivers. That will be huge.
the youngster will have to drive, unless robotaxi becomes the normal.
about a decade ago someone predicted that young people would ditch suburban life and just live in the city. Guess what, they moved to the burbs right after getting kids, or even when they plan to have kids.
 
Didn't Elon state that making affordable EVs is a game of pennies?

Sure, but I say the $400 is less than the cost of the extra labor/towing charges necessary to move the car repeatedly and uninstall/reinstall the equipment. Not to mention the possibility of damaging things or creating rattles when tearing the car apart an extra two times. (And you might not even be allowed to use RORO ships if the car isn't drivable, which would be another whole issue increasing costs.)

There is also the issue that the SCs are already overloaded, so now you have to hire 1-10, or more, extra people at each service center to get the cars ready to deliver. Do they have enough bays to support that, or would they have to add a building or lease more land?

Maybe you could just hire 250 "mobile" techs to install them on the dock as they unload the ship so that it could be done in a day. (Figure at least an hour per car and a 10 hour work day with the ship carrying 2,500 cars.) But what do you do with those people the other 25 days of the month?

I can't see any way it would make things better.
 
New topic I’d like some thoughts on. Based on Ihor’s chart on historical short borrow % and total shares shorted, there was a shortage of available shares to short in 2016 at 28-32M level.

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) Tweeted:
@alex_avoigt @mthomasbenjamin @ValueAnalyst1 @KelvinYang7 Attached is a graph of $TSLA's stock borrow rate (offer rate) versus shares shorted since 2016 Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Currently we are at 46M shares shorted with anecdotes of 5-8 million more available to short. To me that’s a pretty stark difference in shares available to short between 2016 and today. 32M available then, 51M available now? Why the huge difference?

Factors could include new stock sold into the market by Tesla, more institutions offering shares for shorting now, shorting creating new shares that are also shorted.

Anybody smarter than I in the ways of the shorts want to weigh in on reasoning?


more holders buying shares on margin
and/or
more have entered into fully-paid lending programs

could be a reason, in addition to izemze reported o/s shr increase
 
As a teenager, I... um... "helpfully collected and later disposed of" magnesium ribbon left over from experiments in chem lab ;) Man that stuff burns bright. Yeah, it's not easy to ignite, but once you get it going, it's like the sun.

(Magnesium ribbon is of course much easier to burn than thicker cast magnesium objects)
Hope you used sunglasses.
 
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I once had a teacher who (before I was in his class) had done a class experiment where he made silver fulminate, the active ingredient in those firework poppers that you throw on the ground (e.g. an extremely shock-sensitive explosive). You make it wet (in ethanol) and then dry it out on paper - but it becomes increasingly shock sensitive as it dries. It's important to not make too much at once or let it dry too thick, because even its own weight can set it off. Which is exactly what happened - and worse, it wasn't completely dry yet, so it splattered silver fulminate solution all around the room - desks, walls, ceilings, floors, everywhere. The cleaning crew was furious with him because, even weeks later, they'd be in the room cleaning and suddenly whatever they touched would just explode with a loud pop, scaring them half to death. ;)

Also had a chem professor who did a class experiment once a week, every week, and never did a single one without some sort of safety-related incident occurring. Some were almost comic-book style, like when she was trying to dissolve a bunch of pennies in nitric acid, but they weren't dissolving, and she was talking about how sometimes the oxide coating causes a delay, and kept stirring.... then finally stuck her face right up to the opening of the flask to get a better look, right at the second that they all went off at once in a big cloud of toxic brown smoke ;)

Also had just as awkward of a physics professor who was once demonstrating a wimshurst machine with leyden jars, which he'd charge, then discharge with a spark, charge, discharge with a spark, charge.... then set it aside. And we're all looking at each other like, "Did he just forget to discharge the thing? Surely... he's not going to forget and then touch it later, is he?" And sure enough, 15 minutes later he needed more space on his desk, so he picked it up, by the electrodes... there was a loud pop, then silence, and he stood there perfectly still for what seemed like an eternity. Then finally, in a quiet voice.... "I.. think I'm okay...."

Sorry, I know, offtopic... :)

Icelandic Chemistry Teachers:


full
 
I would be ecstatic as well. But not holding my breath. They barely even got the current solar roof out the door. It will all come down to how cheap the installation can get. I know roofers who do volume work and I get comp shingle roofs for under $3/sq ft installed these days for my clients. Even cheaper if bundling PV system with it. Those comp shingles material cost practically nothing to roofers. I can’t see—yet—how Tesla can get the next gen roof to be cost parity with how fast solar panels are also becoming. The recently reduced cost of Tesla’s solar panels still cost as much as my local installers from couple years ago.

Here's a real Tesla Solar Roof quote and the price will shock you - Electrek

As I posted the other day. Now that we have numbers from Tesla, just reinforces my point.

I thought Tesla was comparing costs to comp when they mentioned cost parity. No way comp roof would cost $37,245. My roofers could do that same size roof for ~$5,500. Plus, 9.45kW PV for much less than $30k. No idea what the heck traditional premium roof would cost $20/sq ft as Tesla wrote in that quote for comparisons sake.

Plus, a couple things to note:
1. Solar tax credit starts getting cut each year starting 2020 until it becomes NO credit in 2022. (Unless folks in DC decide to do something about it). So, Tesla needs to really put resources into this project if they’re banking on that.
2. Many (maybe not most?) people do not live in the same house for 30+ years for that net cost calculation to work out in reality.
 
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I think the real question is, what would be the SP, if we didn't have 46M shares shorted.

Anyway, interesting note these levels :

$350+ : Q3 big beat and "profit all quarters going forward"
$300 : Q1 will be profitable if we work really hard
$260 : After bad Q1 deliveries report
$230 : After bad Q1 ER
$180 : After badly worded "money will last 10 months" email
$210 : We have a shot at Q2 being a record month

If we have 90k+ deliveries and a decent quarter (< $100M non-gaap loss), looking at the above we should be back at $300. The wild card is the level of shorting. If they start covering SP can shoot up - but at anytime they can start shorting again !

Grumble, grumble, email wording was fine, grumble was misquoted grumble.