Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sparcs]

Has hell frozen over?

Bob Lutz Talks Panel Gaps, Tesla, and Why Every Detail Matters

How do we know this is real? Maybe this is just some random Bob Lutz they got off facebook?

 

[humbaba]

It's interesting to look back at the Charlie Rose interview with Elon Musk and Bob Lutz...

Bob Lutz and Elon Musk

Yeah, I sometimes forget that before Tesla started being actually successful he was not so negative. In that interview (a bit before the model S release) he says something about Tesla "obviously having a brilliant design staff, very sound engineering staff, no dealership network is a challenge, but has a high chance of success."

His tune changed later when Tesla did succeed, but he was very gentlemanly back when Tesla was just an upstart

 

[humbaba]

How do we know this is real? Maybe this is just some random Bob Lutz they got off facebook?

I did think of that, but it is clearly positioned as being written by the Bob Lutz, complete with anecdotes from his time at GM, which would make it being someone else fraudulent. I don't see Road & Track doing that.

What is really "funny" are people claiming that Tesla sent him a specially good car, as if this were just some random reviewer for Road & Track. Of course, if they read the article they would discover that the author claims to have been inspired to look at a random model 3 he happened to see in order to confirm the FUD about panel gaps. So this wasn't a specially prepped car, and good ole Bob isn't a random reviewer for Road & Track.

The tone is way off for Bob Lutz, but maybe that's just the result of his having lived off of the FUD without any actual exposure. Going from one extreme to reality must've been quite a shock. Imagine what would happen if he actually drove one?

 

[EVNow]

His tune changed later when Tesla did succeed, but he was very gentlemanly back when Tesla was just an upstart

I think he got jealous when S started selling more than Volt. He thought they could sell 100k+ Volts a year.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I have double E degree and have designed built tested fixed much more expensive boards for mass production high tech test systems.

If you cant swap an ecu in under 10 minutes you are fired.

Okay mr. EE. Why don't you check out the real world and see what's involved in accessing the Tesla ECU __AFTER__ the car has been assembled. You either don't get this point, or are being deliberately ignorant.

Here, this might help (this is how you access the MCU - not 10 minutes) :

And this is what's inside the MCU (skip to the 2:08 mark):

Yes, the second part __might__ be a 5-minute swap, and where your comment would be relevant, but you've missed the entire first part of tearing out the dash to get the MCU!

Does that clear it up yet?

 

[Navin]

apologies if already posted (I did look back a few pages before posting), but I felt a disturbance in the force when I read this:

Bob Lutz Talks Panel Gaps, Tesla, and Why Every Detail Matters

He doesn't quite come out and say that Musk is a good leader, but "...excellent fit and finish also requires leadership focus and will, something that Tesla clearly has."

Maybe I need to retire "Bob Lulz" as his nickname?

(I had to triple check that the date wasn't April 1st)

In all seriousness it looks like Bob is in contract negotiations for an extension of his consulting agreement as a paid basher. This is a shrewd move to show some leg. Let me just comment on the outside of the car. Show a little leg if you will. Good luck with your negotiations, Bob.

 

[Bet TSLA]

the youngster will have to drive, unless robotaxi becomes the normal.
about a decade ago someone predicted that young people would ditch suburban life and just live in the city. Guess what, they moved to the burbs right after getting kids, or even when they plan to have kids.

If you say so. Two of my kids (27 and 23) don't have licenses and probably never will. Somehow they manage just fine. One in NorCal and one in SoCal.

 

[jerry33]

OT
@Electroman
$15,700 roof, appx 1,800sqft
$ 33,000 11.655kW PV array (~$2.70/watt) ~200% of my needs

$33,000 is not bad. I paid more for my similar sized roof 15 years ago (includes replacing the decking). However, it's survived two big hail storms (and many small ones), and has reduced A/C costs by a good amount (the metal roof sits a above the roof decking so there is always air flow so the roof decking never gets hotter than ambient temperature). It's also rated for 225 mph winds.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla left none in the pipeline last quarter (e.g. no "unrolling of the wave" back then).

I don't see much unwinding of the wave this quarter, either. They sent fewer cars to Europe and especially China, but first and last ships set sail on roughly the same dates. Unless they start loading ships again before Q2 ends,, which would represent a partial unwinding.

Do you have any approximate estimates for total EU deliveries, if these tends continue? Higher than 20k possible?

I estimate 20-21k in Europe. They sent fewer ships in Q2, but that's partially offset by spillover of cars they failed to deliver in Q1.

Do you have a source for this?
This is the first I've heard that this was not a line/technical issue, and instead a human logistics one.

I'd expect there would be some pretty visible indicators (recruiting/hiring activity, investment in mass transport from nearby areas, local housing construction, etc...)

Carsonight often mentions Panasonic hiring fairs, ads on TV, etc. He said Tesla had a hiring freeze on for a while after the Grohman automated pack assembly machines came online. Panasonic CEO Tsuga said they only recently trained enough local hires to run an entire line (or a few lines?) without needing Japanese expats. The expats are expensive, contributing to their lack of profits from GF1. ​

 

[SO16]

Well, I stopped by the jaguar and Audi dealerships today to check out their EVs. Ahhhh.....dealerships.

My experience at the Jaguar and Audi Dealerships today for their EVs

 

[Electroman]

OT
@Electroman
$15,700 roof, appx 1,800sqft
$ 33,000 11.655kW PV array (~$2.70/watt) ~200% of my needs

Not the Electroman you think you are replying to.

 

[wipster]

How do we know this is real? Maybe this is just some random Bob Lutz they got off facebook?

I was thinking the same thing!

 

[SO16]

These are business deals where the supercharger host receives payment from Tesla, and the host anticipates Tesla customers will come in the store and buy their overpriced goods like everyone else.

Perhaps to a point. But businesses still contribute. Sure, it’s to help themselves too.

Tesla is increasingly able to make businesses pay for the electricity delivered by its Superchargers - Electrek

And they still wouldn’t have to do it. And Meijer’s prices aren’t terrible. They compete with Walmart. Not sure how sheetz measures up.

 

[SO16]

If you say so. Two of my kids (27 and 23) don't have licenses and probably never will. Somehow they manage just fine. One in NorCal and one in SoCal.

One can always find examples to fit their narrative. It’s the “trend” that ultimately matters.

 

[dqd88]

apologies if already posted (I did look back a few pages before posting), but I felt a disturbance in the force when I read this:

Bob Lutz Talks Panel Gaps, Tesla, and Why Every Detail Matters

He doesn't quite come out and say that Musk is a good leader, but "...excellent fit and finish also requires leadership focus and will, something that Tesla clearly has."

Maybe I need to retire "Bob Lulz" as his nickname?

(I had to triple check that the date wasn't April 1st)

Maybe he's positioning to become one of the new board members

 

[Spacemanspliff]

I don't see much unwinding of the wave this quarter, either. They sent fewer cars to Europe and especially China, but first and last ships set sail on roughly the same dates. Unless they start loading ships again before Q2 ends,, which would represent a partial unwinding.

Oddly enough a 13th boat just popped up, datas a bit scrambled but I think it arrives 6/18. We'll see if this is one and where it goes.

Additionally per twitter people in the UK are getting delivery dates of 6/20, implying Grand Dahlia had some.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Oddly enough a 13th boat just popped up, datas a bit scrambled but I think it arrives 6/18. We'll see if this is one and where it goes.

Additionally per twitter people in the UK are getting delivery dates of 6/20, implying Grand Dahlia had some.

Figures, just as I write about the "last ship". This could be the first evidence they are starting to unwind the wave. Good find!

Some in UK were told the first Model 3 deliveries would be in June with another ship bringing more for in July. Maybe this is that other ship. Apparently there are RHDs waiting at Pier 80.

A completely unrelated question: Does anyone know if this 2019 Model S 85D is a Raven? Or just a typo?

 

[mblakele]

For a while after the FCA credit pool hit the news, The Economist seemed to stop covering Tesla (the Agnelli family owns a substantial interest in both companies). That hiatus seems to have ended: here's the latest. It's a short article: how many misrepresentations can you find?

Tesla’s performance gives Elon Musk much to think about
The electric-car firm is enduring a rough patch

At Tesla's annual shareholders meeting on June 11th Elon Musk was as ebullient as ever. But its shares, which started the year above $300, have plunged close to $200 and its bonds recently traded at an all-time low of close to 80 cents on the dollar. Deliveries of the Model 3, the firm’s mass-market electric vehicle (EV), fell by over a fifth in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, casting doubt on the firm’s annual sales target. Tesla raised $2.7bn in convertible debt and stock in May, but questions remain about how much cash it can generate—it burned through over $900m in the first quarter. Tesla may have outsold competitors last year, but faltering demand and a phase-out of EV subsidies in America are tough new challenges it has to face.​

 

[capster]

There was a bear attack between 12:30 and 12:55. 100k shares dumped @ 12:52, which helped them push below 211. But SP quickly back up now above 212.

ps : SP has been beaten down so badly this year, I've no faith in any kind of rallies anymore

By all account with short interest so high, SP should be going up - but we continue to see short attacks almost daily. Have to wonder how long they will continue to increase short % - if 6M shares can still be shorted (they shorted 2M more last week), they can continue at that rate till end of this month.

Remarkable timing, no?

Just an observation. Not advice.

 

[wipster]

In all seriousness it looks like Bob is in contract negotiations for an extension of his consulting agreement as a paid basher. This is a shrewd move to show some leg. Let me just comment on the outside of the car. Show a little leg if you will. Good luck with your negotiations, Bob.

Have Elon give him a call and offer to lend him a 3 for a week to see how he likes it. He can have his pick from any at a dealership or the factory. No smoking though...

Never know, maybe he'll be the spokesman for Tesla... ;-)