Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[izemize]

Now remember: If Q2 ends up with around 80k deliveries - which IMO is not a bad at all - Elon will be rightly criticized as untrustworthy on his knee jerk adhoc statements. He could have very well not given any hint at all, and set these expectations for Q2. But now those expectations are set, there will be a severe backlash if they are not close to 90K deliveries.

Even most of the bears expect a delivery around 85k at this point, it would be absolutely shocking to have anything under that. I'd be more worried about the 10Q.

 

[Carl Raymond]

- Could be that Elon has no clue on sales pipeline and delivery logistics on sending large volumes to Europe and China, and he so makes up whatever comes to his mind.

The miss can be expressed in dollars, cars, or ships.

If cars existed but didn’t sail in time for delivery, it’s a sliding doors moment. If you are one minute late for your train that comes hourly, your error is amplified by 60.

In term of dollars it was a big miss. In terms of cars produced it was a small miss. Elon was off by a small number of ships. He was optimistic they would get shipping right first time. They didn’t. He also hoped the raven refresh would not be rumoured. It was. Perhaps he also hoped GF1 Panasonic would make more cells. They didn’t. Sugar happens.

 

[Fact Checking]

- Could be that Elon has no clue on sales pipeline and delivery logistics on sending large volumes to Europe and China, and he so makes up whatever comes to his mind.

- he was just lying.

Take your pick. But there is no acceptable reason to the gulf between what Elon said and what happened in Q1.

My pick is the #3 option you didn't list:

• What you accuse him of never happened:

The gap between Elon's optimism and reality can't be this wider. I mean a CEO says we may squeeze some profit, but just 7 weeks later ended up with one of the largest losses in its history - how is that possible?

Firstly, ~three weeks after the Q4 conference call he already guided that Q1 wouldn't be profitable, on February 28:

Elon Musk: "We do not expect to be profitable in Q1. But we do think that profitability in Q2 is likely."​

Secondly, Elon explained it in the Q1 conference call:

Elon Musk: "We literally delivered half of the entire quarter’s deliveries were in the final 10 days of Q1."​

They were hopeful based on order book and production projections, but then as the quarter progressed adjusted down and warned that they wouldn't be profitable in Q1.

Third, they also had orders that they couldn't produce - i.e. demand that wasn't even recorded in in-transit or in inventory - simply missing revenue, cash an income due to bad timing.

Then they ended up with a lot more cars in inventory than intended, and they also had orders that they couldn't produce. If deliveries and production are this asymmetric in a quarter, with 50% of the deliveries in the final 10 days, you do not know and cannot know in advance how well the final 10-15 days are going to execute.

Those 10,000 units in transit made most of the difference between the smaller loss they guided for on February 28 and the deeper -$700m loss, and the orders they had but couldn't fill made the difference between smaller loss and a tiny profit.

 

[RobStark]

UAW calls strike against supplier to Ford, FCA, Tesla

The plant, which employs 1,900 UAW members, supplies interior parts to Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Ford Motor Co. and Tesla Inc., the UAW said.

 

[Fact Checking]

UAW calls strike against supplier to Ford, FCA, Tesla

The plant, which employs 1,900 UAW members, supplies interior parts to Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Ford Motor Co. and Tesla Inc., the UAW said.

BTW., I tried to find a definitive source for why unionized UAW workers do not get equity compensation, i.e. no stock options and no ESP benefits.

Is it because they UAW members are contractors, and contractors generally don't get equity compensation?

Or does the UAW contract explicitly forbid stock option compensation, knowing that employees with significant stock would be hesitant in voting for a strike, knowing that the value of their stock options and 401k would go down?

Surprisingly there's basically nothing online about this topic other than the usual FUD about Elon's stock options tweet last year - I'd have expected there to be a lot more material.

 

[dqd88]

We are reluctantly selling our MX because my wife finds the gullwing doors to be a nuisance. We will lease an ICE car for a few years until MY is available.

So, we stop by a Lexus dealership, and when we tell the salesman we currently have an MX, he says: "yeah, we've had several Tesla owners trade theirs in for a Lexus. Tesla seems like a good car at first, but then the kids get older, and the parents discover they don't have enough range to take their kids to college." When I described how superchargers work, he pretended not to know anything about them.

In our little bubble on this thread, we react in a tizzy to each new FUD spun on a daily basis by the foolish and the manipulators. But in doing so we lose sight of what people are really concerned about: range anxiety.

So here's the advertisement I want to see: Parents take kid to college in their Tesla. As the car pulls up to the dorm, it stops just in front of a recruiting table for the Environmental Action Club. Hugs all around.

The really should offer the FWDs as an option. Give people the choice between regular doors and FWD. The FWD price would likely be high and that's ok; some people may really want it. (rather, the regular door base model would be several thousand less than current)

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., Consumer Reports (surprise) writes a gushing recommendation for the eTron:

Tesla ‘fighter’ Audi e-tron receives glowing first drive review from Consumer Reports - omits comparable production issues (& fire recall) segment that their model 3 review had. : teslamotors​

In the eTron recommendation CR 'failed' to hold against Audi a number of things they listed as a concern for the Model 3: production issues (which the eTron has currently), range and efficiency (which is subpar for the eTron), nor the fire risk related eTron recall, which I suppose should have been a factor in its 'reliability' and 'safety' score"?

Instead:

"Reviewers from the organization proved impressed with the all-electric SUV, noting that the vehicle “takes charge among new EVs.”"​

And the lackluster acceleration of the eTron was spun positively too:

Quite interestingly, the e-tron’s rather leisurely acceleration, which was less aggressive than other electric cars such as the Model 3, was dubbed as “appropriate” considering the SUV’s luxury segment. “Unlike some other EVs we’ve recently tested, the E-Tron doesn’t lunge off from a stop; it has a more leisurely rollout. That’s appropriate for a luxury vehicle… On the plus side, there is no spinning of wheels that we have experienced in some other EVs… Once the E-Tron is moving, drivers get smooth and effortless power on demand, at any speed,” Consumer Reports noted.​

Because Consumer Reports reviewers would have been unable to activate "Chill Mode" on a Tesla to simulate an eTron, right?

You cannot make this up - their review reads almost as an Onion article. It's almost as if Consumer Reports was now acting as a marketing and PR arm of Audi.

In other news, Consumer Reports CEO and President Marta L. Tellado:

Our Leadership - Consumer Reports​

worked as "Vice President Global Communications, Ford Foundation, 2004–2014, 10 years, Greater New York City Area":

https://www.linkedin.com/in/marta-l-tellado-0a13782a​

While the Ford Foundation has no official ties to the Ford Motor company today anymore, and CR's sympathy towards gascar makers and apparent antipathy towards Tesla might just be a coincidence, but it's a small world, isn't it?

Anyway, all the CR apologists here who argued that CR is simply being tough to Tesla in interest of their subscribers should read the eTron review and compare it to their Tesla coverage ...

 

[RobStark]

BTW., I tried to find a definitive source for why unionized UAW workers do not get equity compensation, i.e. no stock options and no ESP benefits.

UAW negotiates for profit sharing plans.

You would have to ask UAW leadership why they are so against stock options.

BTW The UAW always target one Detroit automaker to negotiate with and then the other two accept, with perhaps minor modifications, the same contract.

No precedent for one deal for legacy automakers and another for new startups.

 

[RobStark]

BTW., Consumer Reports (surprise) writes a gushing recommendation for the eTron:

Tesla ‘fighter’ Audi e-tron receives glowing first drive review from Consumer Reports - omits comparable production issues (& fire recall) segment that their model 3 review had. : teslamotors​

In the eTron recommendation CR 'failed' to hold against Audi a number of things they listed as a concern for the Model 3: production issues (which the eTron has currently), range and efficiency (which is subpar for the eTron), nor the fire risk related eTron recall, which I suppose should have been a factor in its 'reliability' and 'safety' score"?

In other news, Consumer Reports CEO and President Marta L. Tellado:

Our Leadership - Consumer Reports​

worked as "Vice President Global Communications, Ford Foundation, 2004–2014, 10 years, Greater New York City Area":

https://www.linkedin.com/in/marta-l-tellado-0a13782a​

While the Ford Foundation has no official ties to the Ford Motor company today anymore, and CR's sympathy towards gascar makers and apparent antipathy towards Tesla might just be a coincidence, but it's a small world, isn't it?

Detroit would say CR has had a long standing romance with Japan and antipathy for Detroit.

Historically, German brands ranked in between Japan and Detroit.

 

[UncaNed]

We are reluctantly selling our MX because my wife finds the gullwing doors to be a nuisance. We will lease an ICE car for a few years until MY is available.

So, we stop by a Lexus dealership, and when we tell the salesman we currently have an MX, he says: "yeah, we've had several Tesla owners trade theirs in for a Lexus. Tesla seems like a good car at first, but then the kids get older, and the parents discover they don't have enough range to take their kids to college." When I described how superchargers work, he pretended not to know anything about them.

In our little bubble on this thread, we react in a tizzy to each new FUD spun on a daily basis by the foolish and the manipulators. But in doing so we lose sight of what people are really concerned about: range anxiety.

So here's the advertisement I want to see: Parents take kid to college in their Tesla. As the car pulls up to the dorm, it stops just in front of a recruiting table for the Environmental Action Club. Hugs all around.

Thanks for sharing. How is she bothered by the doors? They're up out of the way when they open, and so far mine are totally reliable.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

You're right, he's wrong.

Really? Maybe you missed post #66819.

Here you go:

"So, we're working every aspect of that logistics chain. And I think we've -- I think it's going to be good. I would say at this point, I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward."
​

Source (2018 Q4 ER transcript): Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

 

[Drumheller]

I have my emergency fund in a GS savings account. Can anyone recommend another account that pays a relatively good interest rate? Thanks!

 

[Fact Checking]

Really? Maybe you missed post #66819.

That wasn't the final Q1 guidance - see post #66838 with a quote from Elon: "We do not expect to be profitable in Q1", plus other details.

 

[uselesslogin]

And the lackluster acceleration of the eTron was spun positively too:

Quite interestingly, the e-tron’s rather leisurely acceleration, which was less aggressive than other electric cars such as the Model 3, was dubbed as “appropriate” considering the SUV’s luxury segment. “Unlike some other EVs we’ve recently tested, the E-Tron doesn’t lunge off from a stop; it has a more leisurely rollout. That’s appropriate for a luxury vehicle… On the plus side, there is no spinning of wheels that we have experienced in some other EVs… Once the E-Tron is moving, drivers get smooth and effortless power on demand, at any speed,” Consumer Reports noted.​

Ummm, that quote left some words out.

Unlike some other EVs we’ve recently tested, the E-Tron doesn't lunge off from a stop; it has a more leisurely rollout. That’s appropriate for a luxury vehicle, but drivers should be aware of it if they try to jump into a line of traffic or merge from a stop. On the plus side, there is no spinning of wheels that we have experienced in some other EVs, such as the Hyundai Kona EV. (Because EVs have so much power right away, their tires can spin faster than they can gain traction.) Once the E-Tron is moving, drivers get smooth and effortless power on demand, at any speed.

Granted, they didn't talk much about the 204 mile range on a 95kwh battery and how the Model X is considerably larger at the same price point. So I'm not really defending CR but I hate it when anyone edits a quote like this. It reads completely differently in its full form.

 

[mrmage]

Yes, one of the windows wouldn't go up. After a while we got it back up and left it up. When I returned the car, I lowered it and tried to raise to see if it was just a fluke thing, and it wouldn't go back up. The car had 84 miles on it when we got it. Also, below is an owner who bought their X this past December and states the following:



Did you mean 400h in the last paragraph?

Oops, meant the mx, not the lexus 400h. The 400h has been great, especially considering it was the first year for a hybrid.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

There are dedicated threads for discussion about Model X build quality and glitches, this isn't one of them - Mod

 

[serverguy247]

So a question for the experts here... I know this discussion has been had before (was unable to find any juicy bits in a search) but I heard several times that "A profit in Q2 is very unlikely".

So AFAIK the main reason they were -700M in Q1 mainly due to an additional 14k cars in inventory. If in this quarter deliveries match production (and inventory stays flat) surely they are within spitting distance of a profit? Also, if they were to cut back a bit on EU production to reduce that 14k inventory, then deliveries will increase above production and that -700 from last quarter could go in the other direction and they are in profit, no?

Maybe I am missing something. But I don't see it as "Very unlikely" I see it as "Very possible, but not guaranteed!".

Is there something that will hit the balance sheet that will increase costs?

 

[anon]

So a question for the experts here... I know this discussion has been had before (was unable to find any juicy bits in a search) but I heard several times that "A profit in Q2 is very unlikely".

So AFAIK the main reason they were -700M in Q1 mainly due to an additional 14k cars in inventory. If in this quarter deliveries match production (and inventory stays flat) surely they are within spitting distance of a profit? Also, if they were to cut back a bit on EU production to reduce that 14k inventory, then deliveries will increase above production and that -700 from last quarter could go in the other direction and they are in profit, no?

Maybe I am missing something. But I don't see it as "Very unlikely" I see it as "Very possible, but not guaranteed!".

Is there something that will hit the balance sheet that will increase costs?

The inventory issue explains why they should be cashflow positive this quarter when they were not last quarter, but it doesn't affect profitability - building excess cars does not directly impact profits because the value of the cars remains on the balance sheet and is not a loss, but it does of course affect cashflow.

 

[UncaNed]

BTW., Consumer Reports (surprise) writes a gushing recommendation for the eTron:

Tesla ‘fighter’ Audi e-tron receives glowing first drive review from Consumer Reports - omits comparable production issues (& fire recall) segment that their model 3 review had. : teslamotors​

In the eTron recommendation CR 'failed' to hold against Audi a number of things they listed as a concern for the Model 3: production issues (which the eTron has currently), range and efficiency (which is subpar for the eTron), nor the fire risk related eTron recall, which I suppose should have been a factor in its 'reliability' and 'safety' score"?

Instead:

"Reviewers from the organization proved impressed with the all-electric SUV, noting that the vehicle “takes charge among new EVs.”"​

And the lackluster acceleration of the eTron was spun positively too:

Quite interestingly, the e-tron’s rather leisurely acceleration, which was less aggressive than other electric cars such as the Model 3, was dubbed as “appropriate” considering the SUV’s luxury segment. “Unlike some other EVs we’ve recently tested, the E-Tron doesn’t lunge off from a stop; it has a more leisurely rollout. That’s appropriate for a luxury vehicle… On the plus side, there is no spinning of wheels that we have experienced in some other EVs… Once the E-Tron is moving, drivers get smooth and effortless power on demand, at any speed,” Consumer Reports noted.​

Because Consumer Reports reviewers would have been unable to activate "Chill Mode" on a Tesla to simulate an eTron, right?

You cannot make this up - their review reads almost as an Onion article. It's almost as if Consumer Reports was now acting as a marketing and PR arm of Audi.

In other news, Consumer Reports CEO and President Marta L. Tellado:

Our Leadership - Consumer Reports​

worked as "Vice President Global Communications, Ford Foundation, 2004–2014, 10 years, Greater New York City Area":

https://www.linkedin.com/in/marta-l-tellado-0a13782a​

While the Ford Foundation has no official ties to the Ford Motor company today anymore, and CR's sympathy towards gascar makers and apparent antipathy towards Tesla might just be a coincidence, but it's a small world, isn't it?

Anyway, all the CR apologists here who argued that CR is simply being tough to Tesla in interest of their subscribers should read the eTron review and compare it to their Tesla coverage ...

Somebody really needs to write and publicize that CR is letting down it's members with misleading reports like this and on model 3 by not following their own methods as Karen Rei pointed out. I wonder if it's been bought out by certain patron's donations.

 

[Remus]

页面不存在_百度搜索

China is again raising the bar for car emission standard. Looks like it has wide spread effect on the price and running cost of ICE cars.