Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Also, building software that will shift hybrid cars to only electric when in cities that mandate electric only (lol, hopefully there will be enough energy left for drivers).

I'm sure they will see that you are headed to a no ICE zone and go into "self-charge" mode to get the batteries fully charged right before you get there. Of course that will increase the pollution just outside the no-ICE zone...

And what happens if you drive more inside the zone than your battery only range allows? Do you have to get towed to a charging station or out of the zone? Or are you allowed to fire up that ICE?

 

[Fact Checking]

Greee........tings fellow Tesla fans!

 

[MP3Mike]

In April of 2014 the tone of Russ Mitchell's Tesla articles changed dramatically with the publishing of the following article of a summary of the TSLAQ short thesis:

• 7 reasons short sellers are betting against Tesla
• All the TSLAQ elements are there: competition, overvalued, uncertain future, etc.

I assume you meant April of 2017...

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., did you guys notice this news item from yesterday:

US super-rich call for wealth tax

A Message From the Billionaire’s Club: Tax Us

'The final signatory was “Anonymous.”'​

I believe there's a fair chance that "Anonymous" is Elon Musk - reportedly most of Elon's philanthropy is anonymous.

 

[EinSV]

Falcking Wedbush

I guess he didn't get the memo -- I mean email.

 

[sundaymorning]

2 workers, gunman dead at California Ford dealership

 

[mrmage]

Guess offering insurance by EV manufacturers has become a thing.

Porsche announces Taycan insurance to make US owners’ transition to EVs easier | TESLARATI

 

[LN1_Casey]

Guess offering insurance by EV manufacturers has become a thing.

Porsche announces Taycan insurance to make US owners’ transition to EVs easier | TESLARATI

Bet you that the Nay Sayers against Tesla are going to praise this decision by Porsche.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I guess he didn't get the memo -- I mean email.

But it sets up the coming narrative. If Tesla delivers 50 cars less than 4th quarter 18 the stock will drop like a brick. If it makes 50 more it will be because of dropping EV tax benefits and the stock will drop like a brick. The story is covered both ways.

Markets like profit. It still comes down to “show me the money”. Tesla needs to continue working towards this and show results...which I believe they will. But probably not this year as they get all the car pipelines filled.

Real investors won’t be affected but short thinking (not shorts) emotional “investors” will continue to have a hard time with the coming ride.

Jmho

 

[ggies07]

Oh man, hahaha, this is great.

Arnold Schwarzenegger Stars in a New Ad Plugging Electric Cars

 

[neroden]

A million thanks for all your good work!

What are all the primary talking points, or what script should I follow to cover everything as impressively and efficiently as possible that will make them get online and buy, or at least tell their friends good things about Tesla?

I know many talking points, but after my falcon wing doors get their attention, I want to casually cover everything in whatever time I have.

The most important talking point: it recharges at home in your garage or driveway. You wake up with a "full tank" every morning. This is the one people are least likely to understand and seems to take the longest to get through people's heads, in my experience. The Superchargers should also be explained, but home charging seems to blow people's minds. (Also explain how cheap home charging is -- I usually say "4 cents per mile", which is accurate for my car and my electric utility).

 

[LN1_Casey]

The most important talking point: it recharges at home in your garage or driveway. You wake up with a "full tank" every morning. This is the one people are least likely to understand and seems to take the longest to get through people's heads, in my experience. The Superchargers should also be explained, but home charging seems to blow people's minds. (Also explain how cheap home charging is -- I usually say "4 cents per mile", which is accurate for my car and my electric utility).

I agree. The one friend who I got into an argument with over Tesla was trying to use the lack of extensive super chargers the main issue. He poked at one of the small gaps in chargers (from 2018) in the US, and was like, "Well, what if someone lived here?! They'd have no where to go to charge!" And I was like, "Then they'd charge at home. Most people live with electricity already installed in their home."

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

BTW., did you guys notice this news item from yesterday:

US super-rich call for wealth tax

A Message From the Billionaire’s Club: Tax Us

'The final signatory was “Anonymous.”'​

I believe there's a fair chance that "Anonymous" is Elon Musk - reportedly most of Elon's philanthropy is anonymous.

This kind of stuff pops up periodically - rich people asking to be taxed more. Two things I always think of when I see this. First, if you look at these people's tax returns, they typically find every single loophole they can to get out of paying taxes. The 2nd thing I think is, why do you need a law to make you pay more? Anyone can pay all they want to pay. You think you should pay more? - DO IT!! In fact, they should start a new "Welfare Dept" that is separate from, but regulated by the govt (sort of like the Federal Reserve). People can give all they want to this welfare dept and it's all tax deductible (and the only tax deductible charity). The dept has to be totally self sufficient meaning donations have to administer the dept also. The dept would help eliminate hunger, homelessness, etc. And this would be good because the rich would be ensured that their money wouldn't be used to fund wars or subsidize corporations (or build walls). I'd be VERY curious to see how many of these super rich people bothered to donate. In fact, I'm willing to bet the Welfare Dept would be broke in a very short time.

So, I always think these are nothing more than publicity stunts. If they really raised taxes on these folks, they'd move somewhere that has lower taxes.

 

[Hock1]

Link to email leak? The only reference to that statement I can find was in September 2018.

That's what I was missing: From September, 2018.
Thanks.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

The most important talking point: it recharges at home in your garage or driveway. You wake up with a "full tank" every morning. This is the one people are least likely to understand and seems to take the longest to get through people's heads, in my experience. The Superchargers should also be explained, but home charging seems to blow people's minds. (Also explain how cheap home charging is -- I usually say "4 cents per mile", which is accurate for my car and my electric utility).

In particular, I would point out how rarely Superchargers are actually used. I know I haven’t used a Supercharger since February. 4 months without going anywhere to refuel my car.

 

[Pezpunk]

so in Elon's email he says "The reality is that we are on track to set an all-time record, but it will be very close"

They had 90700 deliveries in Q4 of 2018

Doesn't the email imply that they will be above 90k deliveries which would at least put them in the low end of their guidance?

Yes - and this note coming so late in the quarter signals that it’s not entirely clear they’ll make it. Therefore, any estimate outside of a relatively narrow 88,000 to 92,000 range is pretty unlikely.

The most important talking point: it recharges at home in your garage or driveway. You wake up with a "full tank" every morning. This is the one people are least likely to understand and seems to take the longest to get through people's heads, in my experience. The Superchargers should also be explained, but home charging seems to blow people's minds. (Also explain how cheap home charging is -- I usually say "4 cents per mile", which is accurate for my car and my electric utility).

Yeah, supercharger questions absolutely dominate, and it is a little frustrating, since I use a supercharger like maybe 4-6 times total per year (for long family trips, which are great). I try to focus on how you wake up every morning with a full charge, but it’s hard to bust that mindset of having to stop to refuel once a week or more, which causes them to erroneously equate charging with gas station fill up times.

 

[EinSV]

But it sets up the coming narrative. If Tesla delivers 50 cars less than 4th quarter 18 the stock will drop like a brick. If it makes 50 more it will be because of dropping EV tax benefits and the stock will drop like a brick. The story is covered both ways.

Markets like profit. It still comes down to “show me the money”. Tesla needs to continue working towards this and show results...which I believe they will. But probably not this year as they get all the car pipelines filled.

Real investors won’t be affected but short thinking (not shorts) emotional “investors” will continue to have a hard time with the coming ride.

Jmho

There are different types of investors. Some are looking for short-term profits. If they are invested in TSLA, they are in the wrong stock and will eventually sell.

Others -- like Ark, Baron, Baillie Gifford -- are invested for disruption, growth and long-term potential. Short-term profitability is almost irrelevant to the Tesla investment thesis for this type of investor. Amazon for many years was unprofitable and then barely profitable while growing only half as fast as Tesla.

If Tesla can continue growing at 50+%/year with only (relatively) modest capital injections from time-to-time, growth-oriented long-term investors should eventually rediscover the fantastic opportunities Tesla presents.

IMO, it's already clear that their high margin, high growth, high leverage business model has enormous potential for profits in the long run.

 

[Unpilot]

Greee........tings fellow Tesla fans!

Your turn to jinx the SP today?

 

[neroden]

This kind of stuff pops up periodically - rich people asking to be taxed more. Two things I always think of when I see this. First, if you look at these people's tax returns, they typically find every single loophole they can to get out of paying taxes. The 2nd thing I think is, why do you need a law to make you pay more?

It's a classic variant of the prisoner's dilemma. Look it up.

It's the same reason that the US doesn't unilaterally disarm, and that Russia doesn't unilaterally disarm, but if they have a treaty, the US and Russia can both disarm.

You should be smarter than this. I'm going to guess you aren't a supporter of unilateral disarmament.

The goal is to get *every* rich person to pay more. If you're Musk, you don't want to pay more *while* the Koch brothers pay less, because then the Koch Brothers can spend more money on pro-fossil fuel campagins, while Musk has less money to spend on anti-fossil-fuel campaigns. Even if Musk and the Koch Brothers both agree that the government should have more funding, they can't agree to do it unilaterally, because then the other side has an incentive to "betray" --- they need it to happen to everyone ("cooperation").

If every rich person pays more taxes, they come out even in their battle over global warming, so it's possible for them to agree on this -- but it needs to be mandatory government taxes.

Consider yourself enlightened.

(I studied economic game theory.)

 

[neroden]

In fact, they should start a new "Welfare Dept" that is separate from, but regulated by the govt (sort of like the Federal Reserve). People can give all they want to this welfare dept and it's all tax deductible (and the only tax deductible charity).

Has to be a near-100% tax CREDIT, FYI, in order to make the economics avoid a prisoners'' dilemma.

Recently, NY actually did this albeit with a 90% tax credit -- there are two such funds, one for education and one for health. And in fact a lot of people donated to them instead of paying the taxes -- they're popular.