Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

And another may be Canada. Since the federal incentive came in part way through May my guess is a full 15 percent of Tesla production is now being sold in Canada. June numbers should be indicative of that but my guess is July August and September will be very strong in the great white North. And not just for Tesla but for all manufacturers of EV’s. We put in an order for a Leaf SL Eplus and it will be January (so 2020 model) before we get it. Tesla is the only EV manufacturer with mass production so they will do well as they are essentially almost the only game in town. Not everyone is as patient as us.

Canada incentives would only be a tailwind if they increased the ratio of Model S,X to Model 3's. It's important to remember that Tesla is production constrained on its primary product, the Model 3. And I'm not so sure they are not production constrained on S and X too.

 

[KSilver2000]

And yes, I'm sure many clients would install a charger for a discounted shipping rate. My company would. An outlet is cheap.

Installing on a 120V or 240V outlet is practically no cost, you’re right.

But a Supercharger is unbelievably expensive.

 

[CalX]

So if we closed at around 223.5 and the maxpain was 220 does that mean a lot of shorts were burned today? What are these large spikes in the after hours?

 

[SPadival]

Lol, this is the same dolt that said this:

"Ellinghorst Says Demand for Luxury Cars Is Back"
-- Arndt Ellinghorst, Mar 23, 2012​

He was partially correct: The segment-leading Tesla Model S was introduced June 22.
Notice how in 2012, (2 mths before the Model S intro), he was an analyst at Credit Suisse?

And now in 2019, he's an analyst at Evercore ISI? WHOOPS! Analyst turnover!

LOL!

Sell side analyst companies - Hurry while the sale is on! Still available for a low low score of 1 star and -5.9% return


https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/arndt-ellinghorst

 

[Artful Dodger]

Honestly, the one thing about which I am curious is how many of the original ~400K reservations of the model 3 still remain on the books and how many have placed an order and received their car. As well as how many remaining reservations are in countries that Tesla currently doesn't service

Yeah, I recall a statement from Tesla that the 'reservation cancel rate' was comparable to that of a large national home builder (ie: 25%). I think that was about 9-12 mths ago.

Further, there may still be substantial numbers of Std Rge reservations still held on the books from April 2016, as those models have just begun shipping in the EU, and not at all yet in Norway (which is likely to have a large pool of reservations).

But yes, overall, its a non-issue at this point. New orders are filled now about as fast as reservations. I'm not even particularly interested in knowing Model Y order numbers, since they will be production constrained for years, selling every Y they can build.

More interesting will be the GF3 ramp up, and how much fine-grained data we'll receive in the financials. It'll be interesting if Tesla splits out the income+expenses from China, as that will be the growth engine for the next 3-5 years I think.

Cheers!

 

[Off Shore]

Installing on a 120V or 240V outlet is practically no cost, you’re right.

But a Supercharger is unbelievably expensive.

It's not unbelievable at all, it's about $150-250K depending. I could depreciate the installation and the truckers would be glad to pay my cost or even a bit more for electricity for charging while they load/unload.

 

[Sudre]

What are these large spikes in the after hours?

I was wondering what is going on myself. Is this right? 2M shares after hours?

 

[Bet TSLA]

I called "peak Apple" two years ago (knowing full well that the stock price of a story stock like Apple often takes a year or two to reflect that). Apple never was a mass-market technology company, they are a design/style/consumer goods company. Moving the manufacture of their high margin products to China is the natural progression of a company that just realized their consumer goods are now a commodity and can no longer command ever increasing prices in a world where electronics are getting cheaper and cheaper.

AAPL share price is based on continual growth and when your market share is more likely to decrease vs. increase, you only have margins to improve. Moving more manufacturing to China is simply Tim Cook's acknowledgment of that. He will be gone within a year and depressed AAPL shares will get a nice pop when his replacement is announced, the magnitude of the pop will depend upon who they are able to corral into the job. I'm pretty sure it won't be Satya Nadela. If they could talk him into the job the stock would go crazy. And I guarantee he would nix the idea of the AppleCar right from the get-go. That was a stupid idea to begin with.

Apparently you know nothing about Apple. And why are you discussing on this thread during trading hours? Please stop.

 

[StealthP3D]

Apparently you know nothing about Apple. And why are you discussing on this thread during trading hours? Please stop.

Maybe you are a sore AAPL investor (if so, I can hardly blame you). In any case, claiming someone "apparently" doesn't know anything about AAPL does not add anything to the discussion.

I haven't heard that Apple has publically announced they are abandoning their plans to enter the EV market with AppleCar. I think it would be a wise move to give up (they never should have spread themselves so far from their core business to begin with). Utterly ridiculous.

 

[Sparky4life]

Mild correction: "Save humanity". As I've said before, the world would be fine if we went extinct. Which, if we don't act fast, we will.

(There's a reason one of the major movements right now is called "Extinction Rebellion")

Maybe, maybe not.

Stephen Hawking: Earth Could Turn Into Hothouse Planet Like Venus

 

[Sparky4life]

Not understanding why analysts believe Q3 and 4 will see less demand for Tesla’s.

Because Q3 comes after Q2. After a robust Q3, Q4 and Q1/20 will be the quarters when demand falls off the cliff.

/s

 

[KSilver2000]

It's not unbelievable at all, it's about $150-250K depending. I could depreciate the installation and the truckers would be glad to pay my cost or even a bit more for electricity for charging while they load/unload.

Good for you. If you can get numbers to work out, then more power to you.

I’ve worked with a few warehouse clients, and from my knowledge, it’s not something that may be viable for them. That and the fact many buisnesses around here lease their locations, and so the point is moot. PLD is everywhere here. (Though that might make a good case for Tesla to partner together on some kind of program.)

 

[neroden]

OT

Seriously?

Definition of WORLD
World - Wikipedia

Can you link to a published definition of the word that does not specifically mention that it's about an inhabited place with human people in it (e.g countries, civilizations…)?

Yes, and you made it very easy for me. You just linked to at least four such published definitions. Do you read what you link? You should try doing so.

Mirriam-Webster:
"6 : the system of created things : universe"

"14 : a celestial body (such as a planet)"


Wiki:
""World" was also classically used to mean the material universe, or the cosmos: "The worlde is an apte frame of heauen and earthe, and all other naturall thinges contained in them."[4]"

"In philosophy, the term world has several possible meanings. In some contexts, it refers to everything that makes up reality or the physical universe."

 

[Jo-]

OT from the soapbox o’ freddddd:

You can hate me, but at least get your facts straight : teslamotors

Mod: I leave this posting here for its reference, but remind all readers that discussion about Fred Lambert, Electrek, etc. is not tolerated. Don't follow up here. --ggr

 

[neroden]

Reddit user Peel7 has a thorough analysis of his bull thesis for TSLA on his blog:

My Tesla Investment Thesis: Why Tesla is the most exciting thing going on in the world today

Definitely a good point of reference that put a lot of information into a single place.

After looking at that data presentation of the Norway numbers, I am now going to guess that the exponential growth for EVs may go linear around 30% of market share (possibly a bit later, definitely not earlier). (That's EVs as a percentage of new cars sold.) We'll pass that around 2025, globally. In Norway the market share appears to increase by 10% per year after that. So we may not get to 90% EVs by 2030; it may take until 2031. ;-)

 

[neroden]

Reddit user Peel7 has a thorough analysis of his bull thesis for TSLA on his blog:

My Tesla Investment Thesis: Why Tesla is the most exciting thing going on in the world today

Definitely a good point of reference that put a lot of information into a single place.

This is really good, actually. This guy did his homework. Journalists, take note -- this would be a good place to start in understanding Tesla.

P.S. The only thing he's missing is an explanation of the basic way an economies of scale business works. That is, high fixed costs, profit on each car sold, but need to deliver more cars in order to cover fixed costs. He may have thought this was too obvious to explain, but I've discovered that highly paid "business reporters" and "financial analysts" don't understand it.

 

[neroden]

I doubt it.

So, you’re saying the clients of these trucking companies are going to pay to have Superchargers installed (and foot the cost of electricity) right next to their roll-up doors for the benefit of the truckers?
Me thinks you don’t understand the logistics business.

First market is companies which own their own trucking fleets (like Tesla, or Wal-Mart, or UPS/FedEx between distribution centers, railyards, and ports). They *will*.

 

[AZRI11]

Good for you. If you can get numbers to work out, then more power to you.

I’ve worked with a few warehouse clients, and from my knowledge, it’s not something that may be viable for them. That and the fact many buisnesses around here lease their locations, and so the point is moot. PLD is everywhere here. (Though that might make a good case for Tesla to partner together on some kind of program.)

This is what they use at my workplace

just change it to Tesla megacharger direct. 40k lbs of batteries could probably charge 8 trucks at a time.

 

[neroden]

Honestly, the one thing about which I am curious is how many of the original ~400K reservations of the model 3 still remain on the books and how many have placed an order and received their car. As well as how many remaining reservations are in countries that Tesla currently doesn't service (i.e., India).

Yeah, basically how many people are still impatiently waiting! And how many are in countries like Brazil where they'll have to wait *even longer*.

 

[Beltsbear]

I doubt it.

So, you’re saying the clients of these trucking companies are going to pay to have Superchargers installed (and foot the cost of electricity) right next to their roll-up doors for the benefit of the truckers?
Me thinks you don’t understand the logistics business.

Maybe not, but Walmart certainly will.