Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Dare I say... Elon sells FSD for good money, but nobody got it (yet)

Well, FSD now contains NoA, auto lane change and auto park.

 

[pnungesser]

Has Elon returned to the states? Does he want to be back when the announcement is made? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

[X Fan]

Re: deliveries & the X.

I've seen quite a few X's in Europe on our trip. The latest, in Prague where the Four Seasons just received a new one two weeks ago (however, they haven't figured out a charging solution so the vehicle is still in the garage).

 

[Boomer19]

No doubt there is cannibalizing, but also I think that’s just the plight of the premium sedan market. Throughout the auto industry, sedans are dropping off. I also expect decline of 3 sales when Y comes to market. People just prefer the CUV/SUV form factor.

not to mention auto in general not doing as exceptionally as in recent years. you can see it in their recent financial results.

but for tesla, they have been, and will continue to be, forced to walk a very fine line, with potentially precarious outcomes should they misstep.

they need maintain their edge for driving assistance/smart driving/autonomous (whatever you want to call it). although the masses don’t even consider them to be the leader is this, or many of the categories i mention below, which is a problem of it’s own.

they need to fulfill energy demands.

they need to deliver Y...optimally this would have been done/close already, i blame the X for this, because that pushed the 3 back, which also didn’t go as smoothly as planned...

they need the pickup!

they need the semi!

they need batteries!
- they need to figure out with panasonic how to get those processes operating like greased lightning
- they need to integrate maxwell into a proprietary product

they may even need to figure out another supplier, (diversification may help for a commodity like batteries, strategically, as we pivot over the fulcrum and away from ice).

they need to do all this, while iterating probably 5-10x faster than everyone else, while maintaining a level of production that allows them to maintain ‘x’ level cash flow to support the business, r&d, errors, expanding delivery and service, enhancing software development and communication processes&applications, expanding global footprint, surviving media attacks, bear raids, sabotages, leaks, eccentricities of its ceo, and being scrutinized for what kind of TP is in kept within its facilities’ bathrooms. and this doesn’t even include roadster amongst other pipeline items we may not even know about.

i mean, cmon.
nobody else is currently dealing with this bs, at this level, for this sustained amount of time

happy 16th tesla. you’re doing great despite your perpetual imminent death

 

[N5329K]

A SP dip on opening...

How much longer do y'all recon they'll be sowing and churning for?

When they quit making money at it.
Robin

 

[Hock1]

Yep. You can't sell what you ain't got.

Yep. You can't sell what you ain't got.

Not entirely true. Market makers, selling short, can and do.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Europe logistics: We (TMC) have seen Elon’s aircraft in Europe in recent weeks (twice?). We (TMC) had wondered if it might be GF 4 related.
However with the departure of the head of European operations (Oehmicke), is it possible that there were European logistics issues that necessitated Elon’s presence, and a resulting dismissal of Oehmicke?
The relevance is that it could portend lower European deliveries than had been hoped for.

Europe looks good, might even beat Q1 which I never expected. Model 3 should come in at ~18k, down almost 2k from Q1 and matching my estimate, but they really moved the pre-Raven metal in Q2. Especially June.

If the countries who haven't reported June yet perform in line with those who have, S/X would come in around 5600-5700. That's up 2500 from Q1. Total Europe would be a bit over 23.5k vs. 23k in Q1.

53.3k - US (from InsideEVs)
23.6k - Europe (18k from actual reports, 5.5k from pro-rating)
10.0k - Asia (mostly China and mostly a guess)
???k - Canada
--------
86.9k plus Canada

Based on anecdotal reports from Canada I expect 5k+ which would be 91k+ and a new record.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla Model 3, S & X Sales In U.S. In June 2019

The inside EV's article states:

• Quarterly, this makes for an estimated total of 53,300 S/X/3 in the U.S.

edit: I see this is US sales only so Canada, Europe and Asia sales would be on top of that number.

Which matches @Troy ´s estimate of 52,300 very well.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-WPs9YXYAIORDW.png:large

 

[sundaymorning]

Just in case anyone wasn't aware of it, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has been a reliable promoter of TSLAQ false narratives in the past, with numerous ties to Tesla short Jim Chanos and other TSLAQ figures:





Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has been helpfully supplying near-malicious anti-Tesla soundbites in support of Jim Chanos's short positions for a long time, with impeccable market timing.

If Sonnenfeld is in any way connected to Yale's ~$30b investment fund:

Yale Investments Office

"Totaling $29.4 billion on June 30, 2018, the Endowment contains thousands of funds with a variety of purposes and restrictions. Approximately three-quarters constitute true endowment - gifts restricted by donors to provide long-term funding for designated purposes. The remaining one-quarter represents quasi-endowment, monies that the Yale Corporation chooses to invest and treat as endowment."
​

And if those Yale investments investments include auto and oil stocks, which are disrupted by Tesla, then the attacks of Sonnenfeld against Tesla might IMHO be a possible ethics violation, conflict of interest and maybe market manipulation.

Is there any public information about Yale's investments, and how they are affected by Tesla?

Maybe the SEC should look into this.

 

[22522]

It's so disappointing when people so educated and distinguished are such morons.

You do know that you are giving them the benefit of the doubt by calling them morons.

I think more toward “manipulative words spoken out of self interest.”

 

[livinginspace]

Hmm. They just raised margin requirements on TSLA again, from 45% to 55%, ONE DAY after raising them from 40% to 45%. What’s going on?

Another scam by another financial institution. E*Trade should not care about the make-up of your portfolio, this is ridiculous. I received the same call two months ago. The guy on the phone sited government regulation as the reason (a FINRA requirement). I threatened to close the account and they backed off. Mine is still at 45% today.

Just got a call from ETrade for this exact thing. I told them that it makes no sense why they would send this now (and only gave me 2 hrs before market close). I threatened with closing account but rep said he'd get back to me. Any other suggestions on what to do?

 

[sundaymorning]

You say great opportunity to buy Tesla. My wife and I bought TSLA yesterday at 229 having never owned a share of stock before in our lives. Buying for the long-term, but it's always disheartening to see it creep downward immediately after purchase!

The best advice we've received is to take your first investment as a learning opportunity, and not invest more than you're able to lose.

Congrats. Buckle up for a wild ride, hopefully numbers will be good and give us a much anticipated bounce. We’ll find out bewteen 1-1.5 days.

 

[Pezpunk]

When they quit making money at it.
Robin

i know i drag others occasionally for advocating wild conspiracy theories, so i won't complain if this gets scoffed at, but i really do think there are shorts whose losses are literally covered by money from fossil fuel interests and other enemies of electrification. i find it easy to imagine behind certain closed doors with certain people, their eyes will widen and they'll giddily tell you about shocked they were at how easy it was to suppress Tesla's stock price through the simplest and most transparent of means.

 

[capster]

Just in case anyone wasn't aware of it, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has been a reliable promoter of TSLAQ false narratives in the past, with numerous ties to Tesla short Jim Chanos and other TSLAQ figures:





Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has been helpfully supplying near-malicious anti-Tesla soundbites in support of Jim Chanos's short positions for a long time, with impeccable market timing.

If Sonnenfeld is in any way connected to Yale's ~$30b investment fund:

Yale Investments Office

"Totaling $29.4 billion on June 30, 2018, the Endowment contains thousands of funds with a variety of purposes and restrictions. Approximately three-quarters constitute true endowment - gifts restricted by donors to provide long-term funding for designated purposes. The remaining one-quarter represents quasi-endowment, monies that the Yale Corporation chooses to invest and treat as endowment."
​

And if those Yale investments investments include auto and oil stocks, which are disrupted by Tesla, then the attacks of Sonnenfeld against Tesla might IMHO be a possible ethics violation, conflict of interest and maybe market manipulation.

Is there any public information about Yale's investments, and how they are affected by Tesla?

If I’m not mistaken, Yale has historically been well connected to what used to be called the "Great Game" at the intersection of Geopolitics, e.g. Intelligence, and energy, i.e. oil. Consider for example the Bush family.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see that tendrils of the “Yale network" reaching into the exec/owner ranks at the banks, in media companies, and elsewhere are fighting tooth and nail to protect the energy status quo. Once upon a time this may have been patriotic. Now, they are acting very much against the economic and security interests of the United States.

Happy Fourth of July my fellow Americans! Buy a Tesla and let freedom ring!

No doubt there are plenty of nice people and energy transformation, er, non-combatants affiliated with Yale too. So no offense to Yalies.

 

[hobbes]

Europe logistics: We (TMC) have seen Elon’s aircraft in Europe in recent weeks (twice?). We (TMC) had wondered if it might be GF 4 related.
However with the departure of the head of European operations (Oehmicke), is it possible that there were European logistics issues that necessitated Elon’s presence, and a resulting dismissal of Oehmicke?
The relevance is that it could portend lower European deliveries than had been hoped for.

My bet is on GF4. Europe seems on track to do its part for 90,000+ worldwide!
See wiki link in my footer/insideevs´ and @Troy´s estimates for details.

 

[dgodfrey]

As someone after your post mentioned, quantitative delivery would also be a key ingredient to actually challenge Tesla to any great degree. I completely dismiss any automaker with claims of being a serious player in the BEV segment until they meet two key criteria.

• Controlling their own destiny regarding battery supply i.e.
  • Controlling interest in battery manufacture
  • Battery design
  • Battery resources
• In house software development

So far I believe VW is the only manufacturer making any inroads to be taken seriously.
This is in addition to the list below you provided.

To really be a Tesla killer, a car needs to be competitive to Model 3 (and soon Y) in terms of:

• price
• performance
• range
• charging speed and infrastructure
• style
• features (auto pilot, OTA upgrades, etc)

Without all of those, it's just a car with batteries and an electric motor.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The big issue is that Musk abandoned near-term plans to get more than 7000/week Model 3s out of Fremont. Original target was 10000/week. This was a failure, and should be acknowledged as such. If you do the math, with the final rate being 7000/week you just can't get to to 360K-400K Model 3. With the final rate being 10000/week, you can. That was the material change.

Assuming Pana get their efficiency up at GF1, do you think those batteries will be used to increase production volumes at Fremont or are earmarked for GF3/energy?

 

[Boomer19]

Just got a call from ETrade for this exact thing. I told them that it makes no sense why they would send this now (and only gave me 2 hrs before market close). I threatened with closing account but rep said he'd get back to me. Any other suggestions on what to do?

this all happened today?

i remember the increase to 40% happened weeks ago at IB, members reported

i haven’t seen any reports of other brokers increase to 50% yet besides these two posts about etrade

 

[neroden]

Why is abandoning the 10,000 target for Fremont a failure?

Financially? The SAME capex / depreciation and the SAME labor hours costs ends up producing 7000/week rather than the 10,000/week it was supposed to. That's obviously a failure. It substantially worsens any financial models.

If you need to use $XXX million in capex to produce 7000/week, you are in a worse financial position than if you need to use $XXX million in capex to produce 10000/week.

If you need to use $YYY million in labor hourly costs to produce 7000/week, you are in a worse financial position than if you need to use $YYY million in labor hourly costs to produce 10000/week.

I thought this was too obvious to mention. This is an investor forum, I assumed people understood that.

The goal was to hit 10000/week with essentially the same equipment they actually installed, remember.

 

[Stars aligned]

Just got a call from ETrade for this exact thing. I told them that it makes no sense why they would send this now (and only gave me 2 hrs before market close). I threatened with closing account but rep said he'd get back to me. Any other suggestions on what to do?

Margin reduction "because of concentrated TSLA position" happened to me around 18 Oct 2018. Shortly after, SP started to climb. Luckily, I was only slightly in margin, sold my other shares, a small number of TSLA and transferred some money to the account. Avoided to be on margin since.
Could they seek shares for some of their clients with short position? Timing was / is suspicious. I also remember that I saw similar posts when TSLA hit 180 end of May. This helped me in my decision to buy more back then...