Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

It appears Tesla lowered the Model S & X price by $2k. No change on the Model 3 though.

Helping to compensate for the $1875 drop in the US federal tax credit on July 1st.

 

[CyberDutchie]

So what's the new bear/short narrative, I suppose profit, right?

The two most used words in the media reactions to the record quarter are “but” and “concerns”.

There is always and will always be a “but” (some “advice”, like ‘do not invest yet’, or ‘fire the CEO first’) and a “concern” (sustained demand, competition, margins, etc.). Whatever sticks will be the new narrative for a while.

 

[ReflexFunds]

It appears Tesla lowered the Model S & X price by $2k. No change on the Model 3 though.

Thanks for the update! I presume this is to compensate the US credit step down and ahead of stage 2 refresh. I haven't kept close track of recent S/X pricing. When was the last price drop and do you know which day this new one took place exactly?

 

[Tim S]

Wisconsin at it once again:https://www.bizjournals.com/milwauk...get-includes-tax-cut-and-funding-for-zoo.html

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers revealed his version of the state budget Wednesday that includes funds to complete the Zoo Interchange freeway project and cuts to income taxes for “Wisconsin’s working families.”

Evers used his veto power to make it easier for the Medical College of Wisconsin to proceed with its proposed $100 million cancer research center and to block Republicans’ plan to allow Tesla to sell vehicles directly to consumers.

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The Tesla legislation was controversial after some news coverage said Republicans added it to the budget to win a crucial vote from a Republican state senator.

Evers said he objected to the proposal because it would cause significant changes in the state’s existing motor vehicle dealership law and the consumer protections it provides. He also said the provision was included in the budget without “adequate public input and debate.”

Wow, that is disappointing. Dealership associations apparently don't discriminate by political party when making donations. We have the same issue in New York... Tesla is limited to 5 stores.

 

[Nocturnal]

Refresh coming?

Might just be offsetting the tax credit change. If so that suggests that the model 3 is popular enough that it doesn't need a price change to offset the credit.

 

[traxila]

Might just be offsetting the tax credit change. If so that suggests that the model 3 is popular enough that it doesn't need a price change to offset the credit.

Model 3 is as cheap as it will get on its base model. Maybe the premium versions...

Wait a couple years for the Maxwell tech to kick in maybe then.

 

[Fred42]

It appears Tesla lowered the Model S & X price by $2k. No change on the Model 3 though.

I see no change to the price on the S LR. I can't speak about SR or Performance as I don't know what the price was before.

 

[Zaxxon]

It appears Tesla lowered the Model S & X price by $2k. No change on the Model 3 though.

No, the X is unchanged (just configured the one I bought last month--same price).

I see no change to the price on the S LR. I can't speak about SR or Performance as I don't know what the price was before.

So looks like no, altogether.

 

[mrmage]

The credit is not big help long term.
A car maker gets a $5,625 head start on Tesla, until they sell 200k cars at which point their advantage goes away over 5 quarters or so. At which point they have no benefit against Tesla. Meanwhile, Tesla keeps improving their cars while the typical OEM is locked into model years.

Ironically, the extra tax credit to competitors forces Tesla to be even more competitive. It sucks for EM to work 100 hr weeks and for everyone else to work so much overtime, but it gives Tesla an even larger and sustainable lead, especially on the tech.

While competitors build at a loss even with credits, Tesla must build a better product with margin at scale, along with an organization to match.

After the credits are gone, Tesla will be a lean, mean and utterly unstoppable machine.

 

[Tslynk67]

One of UK's (less prestigious, I accept) news-papers raving about Model 3 safety...

Tesla Model 3 sets new safety technology benchmark in Euro NCAP testing

 

[Buckminster]

One possible version of the simulation:



While good for the planet and citizens as a whole, this will be bad for my region and autoworkers in general:
Tesla has won.
They have the cars people want, the know how and equipment to build them, and the desire to do so. Even if other OEMs catch up on tech, they cannot catch up on price due to automation and existing fiscal responsibilities.
Elon's facepalm will be from them not moving soon enough, but he will achieve the master plan. Car sales being 50% EV (on the way to 100%) is a win, even if total sales are only 2.25x Tesla's output.

Overall, less cars being built is better for the environment also (assuming existing get retired before their emissions get bad)



Capitalism can't because there is no money in fighting Tesla. They are too far ahead of the price reduction curve. The best others can do is imitate and come in at a higher price point which is only relevant due to scarcity. And even then, only until Tesla adds another plant. (Other than non-Tesla body styles that fill unmet needs).

The best glide slope is national subsidies on EV and taxes on ICE to push people into buying non-Teslas now thus funding other OEM development programs. Even then, there will be industrial carnage. (Marco Capitalism perhaps?)

I have previously made the point that Tesla is doing so well, that they are essentially not accelerating transition as much as they could have. It didn't go down well...
Is Tesla accelerating and decelerating transition to renewables?
Faster than a Ferrari, cheaper than a BMW - they could have thrown Volvo shareholders a bone and dropped safety to 4 stars....

Other than SP500 inclusion, do profits matter? I personally think not, I'm more interested at sustaining growth and bringing the MY, MP, R2 and semi to production.

A positive p/e ratio would tempt a great deal of conservative investors/funds into the fray.

 

[EVMeister]

One of UK's (less prestigious, I accept) news-papers raving about Model 3 safety...

Tesla Model 3 sets new safety technology benchmark in Euro NCAP testing

The Express has been amazingly positive about the Model 3 in general recently. Posted a really glowing preview followed by a very positive review and now this. It's refreshing to see.

 

[wipster]

I thought Gene (bull guy...) had some good points, and basically said something similar (high pressure, should be easier going forward), and there has been a few fairly important people that have left in the last year. I personally don't see it as that big of a deal but it is a valid point.

One thing I haven't seen discussed (but with this thread it's easy to miss stuff) is that there are a number of BEV startups such as Rivian and Lucid that need staff experienced in building electric cars and the best place to find them is Tesla! There is no wonder a fair amount of poaching is going on because I'm certain those companies are willing to offer big pay increases and stock options and regardless of how loyal they may have been to Tesla, money talks! I don't know if there are non-compete clauses in their employment agreements, but it doesn't appear there is much of one.

All this talk about people jumping a sinking ship at Tesla is just a lot of hooey in my opinion, as supply and demand also applies in the work world and folks that have worked at Tesla are worth their weight in gold-pressed latinum. All in all, it will probably be good for Tesla in the long run, as competition makes for better and less expensive products, plus it helps achieve Tesla's goals of accelerating the use of BEV's worldwide.

 

[Sparky4life]

Not sure where that (margin concerns) come from,

As long as Tesla does not break down margin by variant, naysayers will continue to make the argument that while overall gross margn may be ~20%, the SR has negative margin and therefore as the SR ratio goes up Tesla loses more and more money. The Q2 and Q3 earnings reports should make it clear that GM on SR is healthy. That, combined with continuously increasing demand, should put these concerns to bed.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Refresh coming?

Hummingbird arriving in September.

 

[Sparky4life]

One thing I haven't seen discussed (but with this thread it's easy to miss stuff) is that there are a number of BEV startups such as Rivian and Lucid that need staff that are experienced in building electric cars and the best place to find them is Tesla! There is no wonder there is a fair amount of poaching going on because I'm certain those companies are willing to offer big pay increases and stock options and regardless of how loyal they may have been to Tesla, money talks! I don't know if there are non-compete clauses in their employment agreement, but it doesn't appear there is much of one.

All this talk about people jumping a sinking ship at Tesla is just a lot of hooey in my opinion, as supply and demand also applies in the work world and folks that have worked at Tesla are worth their weight in gold-pressed latinum. All in all, it will probably be good for Tesla in the long run, as competition makes for better and less expensive products, plus it helps achieve Tesla's goals of accelerating the use of BEV's worldwide.

There's a lot of poaching from Tesla going on for autonomous vehicle software engineers in Silicon Valley as well. Most of these folks (at least the ones I have talked to) are not down on Tesla, but they are being offered very lucrative packages to leave Tesla. These companies are poaching from Telsa for good reason.

Non-compete clauses are now illegal in California.

 

[Krugerrand]

I find the pole impact quite impressive. Not much intrusion.

Almost makes you want to go out and try it yourself, eh?

 

[NicoV]

BMW is right, there is no demand for electrified vehicles: BMW Group US electrified vehicle sales down 22.6% in June

At least not for BMW vehicles.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Why Your Next Car Should Be Electric

 

[M3Rider]

It's been a while since I saw such words in non-EV media applied to Tesla...

Tesla shines amid US auto sales slump