Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[X Fan]

In other auto news, a lovely negative headline story for VW:

Volkswagen Stalled Bond Investigation, SEC Says

 

[jerry33]

Read the full article. It’s actually pretty fair. They interviewed a woman in San Diego with a Model S and directly address the fact that a lot of the things women cite as concerns for EV’s/Tesla’s are misconceptions.

They’re saying that women who don’t have experience with EV’s are more wary of them than men.

I suspect this is true because women are often overcharged and told "stories" at car dealers. I'd be suspicious if I was a woman.

 

[jerry33]

True.
Not necessary for Riv to have a large charging network like Tesla. People usually don’t take pickup trucks for going on long road trips and vacation.

Tell that to all those pickup drivers with a camper in the truck bed or pulling a camping trailer. I see dozens on every trip I take. Because of the increased energy use, they'll need more charging places, not less.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Wall Street thinks we are as dumb as sh*t. His cohort, Mark van der Pluym was in Morocco last week driving an antique car , Mark is a good guy, I hope he wakes up and gets the f out of wall street. It's still stinging (Uber IPO) poor Adam . On the next call, Elon should admit that all Tesla's will be future Terminators come judgment day playcate these these ugly mother fu$kers.

I kinda see their point on total number of units for the year. I don’t think demand or delivery logistics will be a problem (or in the case of logistics at least not unsolvable problems) but unless there is a significant increase in battery production I think 350,000 units might still be a challenge. Are there significant changes coming that will allow an extra 15000 to 30000 packs to be built? Not up on this.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Especially younger people. How many rent out their beds to strangers now? 20 years ago we would have laughed at that idea. ​

Is that a thing?!?!? Ewwwww...

 

[jerry33]

Is that a thing?!?!? Ewwwww...

We just called them communes.

 

[liuping]

We just called them communes.

I don't really think Air BnB is quite the same as a commune.

 

[Skryll]

PG&E just sent me a link to this: PG&E EV Savings Calculator
it contains a cost comparison tool that promises to compare any of the EV's they have to a similar gas vehicle and show how it is cheaper to own the more expensive EV over time. I was surprised how tesla doesnt look like the most attractive option unless you pay extra attention to max range and know that it has additional features. Also found it strange that the comparable to tesla model 3 SR+ is a toyota camry hybrid and not a porsche

Their guidance is actually clever, they ask for your round trip commute first, avoiding the long range desire. Also doesnt mention advanced EV features since we are just comparing to gas cars.

 

[EVNow]

I've been saying this for a while now.

To expand on this - using ARK worksheet - this is what I get.
Cost to consumer for SAV : $1/mile
Payback period : 4 years
IRR : 20%

Price of 250 mile range EV : $270,000

That's, right. Even if you pay $270k for the car, you still end up with an IRR of 20%. This is at $1/mile - which is 50% lower than Uber/Lyft rate of $2/mile, which is itself highly discounted compared to $3.47 taxi rate.

So, if Tesla wants to sell a real working robotaxi, they should charge $270k.

 

[wipster]

I'm loving it when SA articles such as the recent "Tesla in the Rear View Mirror" have about 95% of the comments calling it out as the FUD that it is... a refreshing change!

 

[FrankSG]

I believe the schedule in the 10-Q includes some finance leases and the note at the bottom of page 8 does not. Note also that the total of "long term debt plus finance leases", in the earnings letter is larger than either of the above totals.

Damn finance leases

Nope that's not it. Somebody else answered this for me and pointed out that the numbers in the earnings letters are the carrying value, whereas the numbers in the 10-Q / 10-K I was looking at is unpaid principal. If you add up the current and long-term carrying values from 10-Q and 10-K, they will add up to the numbers in the earnings letters.

 

[Cosmacelf]

To be honest, I think an electric cyberpunk pickup is going to be a bridge too far for many potential customers. Right now, an "amazing" pickup feature is a tailgate with a fold-out step .
Another huge factor is going to be the date that Rivian trucks are available. If availability dates and costs of the Tesla and Rivian pickups are comparable, I think Rivian, with a more traditional appearance, wins.

Wins what? Rivian says their combined Truck and SUV yearly manufacturing capacity will be 20,000 vehicles initially. Unless this number changes (which it could), 20,000 Trucks/SUV isn't going to cause ANYONE heartburn.

 

[Mike Smith]

Not sure IF posted already but this would be nice for potential Cali EV buyers: California bill could triple rebates for electric car buyers

People complain that these rebate programs are just a handout to the rich, but in fact it effectively lowers the cost of EVs for everyone since it causes the price of used EVs to fall by a comparable amount - especially over the coming years as the used market is flooded with EVs.

 

[RFernatt]

I know it's anecdotal, but saw this Reddit post earlier and it reinforced in my mind how much of an impression each delivery and test drive is making out there. No wonder new Q2 orders exceeded deliveries!

Drove a Tesla model 3 for the first time yesterday. Holy balls. : teslamotors

"I scheduled a test drive about two weeks ago and drove 2 hours yesterday to finally experience the car I’ve read so much about. I gotta say, holy *sugar*! Better than I could have ever imagined! ...

I could say so much more about this car but I’ll just say that it exceeded all of my expectations.

On a side note, I brought my parents with me and my dad also got to drive it. He would not shut up about it on the way home. “This car is the future” and “if I’m gonna buy a new car, it’s gonna be from the guy who builds rockets”. They were also super surprised that the guy who drove with us didn’t try to sell the car afterwards. I tried telling them that Tesla doesn’t have dealerships but they were convinced that there would be some sales tactic involved. 10/10 experience.

Edit: another side note, we also decided to install a 240v receptacle outside of the house we airbnb and offer something like a 25$ discount to people who drive their EVs to the house. All because of this test drive."

 

[dc_h]

Especially younger people. How many rent out their beds to strangers now? 20 years ago we would have laughed at that idea.

That used to mean something very different.

I know what you mean though. I think a lot of young people think of stuff as a burden. A simpler streamlined life, more forager then farmer. The idea of car sharing, or making some money off of their car, versus just paying out will be appealing. I’m a young boomer (old), but work from home. I’d rent my car out to reduce the cost of ownership. I need it one or two days a week. Providing a rush hour only cab service when rates are highest would mean I wouldn’t miss the car at all and even making 20 to 30 dollars a day means free car.

 

[Tim S]

That used to mean something very different.

I know what you mean though. I think a lot of young people think of stuff as a burden. A simpler streamlined life, more forager then farmer. The idea of car sharing, or making some money off of their car, versus just paying out will be appealing. I’m a young boomer (old), but work from home. I’d rent my car out to reduce the cost of ownership. I need it one or two days a week. Providing a rush hour only cab service when rates are highest would mean I wouldn’t miss the car at all and even making 20 to 30 dollars a day means free car.

OT

You could rent out your car now using Turo. I rented a Model 3 from a guy who worked from home last fall while on vacation in Southern California.

 

[mrmage]

PG&E just sent me a link to this: PG&E EV Savings Calculator
it contains a cost comparison tool that promises to compare any of the EV's they have to a similar gas vehicle and show how it is cheaper to own the more expensive EV over time. I was surprised how tesla doesnt look like the most attractive option unless you pay extra attention to max range and know that it has additional features. Also found it strange that the comparable to tesla model 3 SR+ is a toyota camry hybrid and not a porsche

Their guidance is actually clever, they ask for your round trip commute first, avoiding the long range desire. Also doesnt mention advanced EV features since we are just comparing to gas cars.

It's annoying to see so many comparisons showing Tesla at the back of the list, as though it were a niche EV. It might be general ignorance by the people designing the web pages.

The Prius and Tesla were probably paired for their similar performance. Their acceleration and quarter mile times are nearly identical... in freefall.

 

[VValleyEV]

Wins what? Rivian says their combined Truck and SUV yearly manufacturing capacity will be 20,000 vehicles initially. Unless this number changes (which it could), 20,000 Trucks/SUV isn't going to cause ANYONE heartburn.

I hope the Rivian R1T is sufficiently different from Tesla PU for both to “win”.

Numbers quoted by Rivian initially were 20k for first year, 40k second year. BUT very recently they upped the ante to “20k-40k for the first full year of production (2021)”. They have told reservation holders that they are planning small production runs in 4Q of 2019, and might deliver to a few customers before the end of the year.
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe hints at initial production of 20k-40k vehicles in 2021

I agree that 20k or even 40k production per year won’t pose much of a threat to anyone, but they may have the ability to ramp up quickly. As someone here pointed out, their factory is in rural Illinois and with low labor costs, and they have picked up some of that labor force from some who worked there when it was a Mitsubishi plant. Just checked the numbers, Rivian factory is 2.6 million square feet, vs 5.3 for Fremont, so roughly half.

 

[TNEVol]

Tell that to all those pickup drivers with a camper in the truck bed or pulling a camping trailer. I see dozens on every trip I take. Because of the increased energy use, they'll need more charging places, not less.

Jerry. I am waiting on a Pickup for exactly this reason but I am expecting to maximize the charging at RV camps since it is usually included in the per diem and using the 110/220 from the pickup for the RV when off grid since EM said this would be available for contractors. And could a powerwall be used in the RV?

 

[KSilver2000]

Tell that to all those pickup drivers with a camper in the truck bed or pulling a camping trailer. I see dozens on every trip I take. Because of the increased energy use, they'll need more charging places, not less.

Ah, I can see that happening.
Difference in lifestyle between different regions of the US.