Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

FYI:

 

[JusRelax]

For context - this is kind of like a “Car of the decade” by impact level award by the looks of it. One would think the model 3 is actually the car history will judge as the real meteor strike for the auto industry, with the S being the harbinger mostly ignored until it was too late.

This seems more like 'car of all time' instead of 'car of the decade'. The other nominees are the 1968 Pontiac GTO and the 1986 Mazda RX-7.

 

[Foghat]

Women don’t like EVs???

Both grandmas to my kids have Model 3s.

One grandma has already done a road trip 6k mile round trip, using superchargers and auto pilot. Said it was the best driving experience in her half century plus of driving.

Did I mention highest safety rating really appeals to both men and women consumers?

But I guess USA Today used sources where only men like safety and women just like to live life dangerously “skiing” in M.I.A music videos.

 

[aubreymcfato]

The internal profit from using the Semis for Tesla Inc. is so huge that they really have to go forward with the Semi, and they have to do it as fast as possible. Unlike selling vehicles to the outside, using Semis internally Tesla takes both the manufacturer/dealer profit, *and* the cost savings which normally accrue to the consumer who switches from gas to EV. It will be a huge source of profit, which is needed for expanding battery production. Plus, the marketing value of "eating your own dogfood" is huge.

I really can't wait for this to happen.
If Tesla had a good PR team, this could be huge in terms of good communication, appealing to activists/enviromentalists.
It's one thing to sell a cool "50k$ sedan for SV engineers", another to disrupt and clean the whole transportation system.
And they just need a few dozens out to prove their point.
The fact that Jerome himself is leading this and excited about it makes me all warm and fuzzy.

 

[EVNow]

Would consider adding buying a separate car to add to an autonomous fleet service of course if the numbers worked

If the numbers worked leaps or even shares would probably provide better returns.

I'd like to see that Adam Jonas report on Tesla in 2025 saying how all the Robotaxi trips have been pulled forward to Q2 from Q3 and Q4 because of possible tax increase on robotaxis.

 

[Zaxxon]

Since today appears to be even-more-off-topic-than-usual day, here's a markets-are-closed funny.

 

[JusRelax]

I really can't wait for this to happen.
If Tesla had a good PR team, this could be huge in terms of good communication, appealing to activists/enviromentalists.
It's one thing to sell a cool "50k$ sedan for SV engineers", another to disrupt and clean the whole transportation system.
And they just need a few dozens out to prove their point.
The fact that Jerome himself is leading this and excited about it makes me all warm and fuzzy.

There will still be that one PETA representative at the Annual Shareholder Meetings complaining about leather on the steering wheel.

 

[Cherry Wine]

There will still be that one PETA representative at the Annual Shareholder Meetings complaining about leather on the steering wheel.

Making the perfect the enemy of the good. Sums up so many criticisms of Tesla in general.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Women don’t like EVs???

Both grandmas to my kids have Model 3s.

One grandma has already done a road trip 6k mile round trip, using superchargers and auto pilot. Said it was the best driving experience in her half century plus of driving.

Did I mention highest safety rating really appeals to both men and women consumers?

But I guess USA Today used sources where only men like safety and women just like to live life dangerously “skiing” in M.I.A music videos.

Read the full article. It’s actually pretty fair. They interviewed a woman in San Diego with a Model S and directly address the fact that a lot of the things women cite as concerns for EV’s/Tesla’s are misconceptions.

They’re saying that women who don’t have experience with EV’s are more wary of them than men.

 

[AZRI11]

Adam Jonas has found a new narrative (took him a week to come up with this one): record Q2 is pull-in from what would have normally been H2 sales:

“We update our TesIa earnings forecast following better than expected 2Q deliveries. At this stage, we have assumed the 2Q beat pulled forward demand from the remainder of the year, leaving our full year delivery forecast unchanged at 347k units. Reiterate EW and $230 PT.”

Adjustments to the model:

Deliveries. Tesla beat our 2Q delivery estimate by 13,622 units. We removed 6,500 units from 3Q and 7,200 units from 4Q. We now expect 3Q deliveries to fall sequentially to 91,300 units before recovering slightly to 97,200 units in 4Q. Model mix and price deterioration take our forecasted Y/Y revenue growth to down 3% for 3Q and down 2% for 4Q.

Gross margin. We left our 2Q19 auto gross margin unchanged at 20.0% (ex regulatory credits) and 21.5% including credits. We forecast 3Q and 4Q auto gross margin on an ex-regulatory credit basis to be 20.6% and 20.9% respectively.

What I don’t understand is how he thinks Tesla is fundamentally overvalued but still has a $230 target for the stock. Isn’t that where we are today?

Wall Street thinks we are as dumb as sh*t. His cohort, Mark van der Pluym was in Morocco last week driving an antique car , Mark is a good guy, I hope he wakes up and gets the f out of wall street. It's still stinging (Uber IPO) poor Adam . On the next call, Elon should admit that all Tesla's will be future Terminators come judgment day playcate these these ugly mother fu$kers.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I went back and listened to the Shareholder meeting again. Some quotes from EM regarding production of the truck and semi:

- "A lot of this is based on our ability to manufacture a lot of cells and make a lot of battery packs."

- "There's not much point in adding product complexity if we don't have enough batteries ... then it's complexity without gain."

"Adding product complexity" in this context means rolling out new models.

So, my question to the group is, "where are we going to get the extra battery capacity?"

At the same meeting, Elon and JB were dying to tell us something else about batteries. Elon did say that there will be a battery related announcement later this year, actually a major announcement, like they had for autonomy, showcasing their capabilities.

I suspect the announcement will be that Tesla is making their own battery cells. Using the new Maxwell acquired technology. I suspect the Chinese gigafactory will have their own battery cell line in it, which is why the announcement needs to be made this year, since that factory will start hiring production workers pretty soon.

I don't know where in the US Tesla will start manufacturing cells, if my guess is correct. If I'm correct, Tesla will be able to ramp up battery cells production at Tesla speed by mid 2020.

That's always been the problem with Tesla, no supplier of unique Tesla technology seems able or willing to ramp up production as fast as Tesla needs it. I say "willing" because Tesla has stumbled in the past (Model X production delays due to falcon wing door, and Model 3 delays due to battery pack assembly) which no doubt has caused huge problems for those suppliers who ramped up production, yet had to cool their heels for 6+ months while Tesla got its crap together.

If I'm correct and Tesla is going to leave Panasonic in the dust (no doubt they'll be weaned off Panasonic slowly as contracts run out), I would LOVE to hear the backstory on this because you would think this would be a huge negative impact on Panasonic. Then again, the demand for EV battery cells continues to outstrip manufacturing capacity, so maybe Panasonic won't have any problem continuing to sell to other manufacturers. Indeed, maybe Panasonic asked to be released from some sole source customer relationship with Tesla to be able to court other EV manufacturers and Tesla extracted an out from a sole source contract as part of the negotiations. Guesses upon guesses. I hope Ashley Vance writes a second book so we can read all about it.

 

[Captkerosene]

The internal profit from using the Semis for Tesla Inc. is so huge that they really have to go forward with the Semi, and they have to do it as fast as possible. Unlike selling vehicles to the outside, using Semis internally Tesla takes both the manufacturer/dealer profit, *and* the cost savings which normally accrue to the consumer who switches from gas to EV. It will be a huge source of profit, which is needed for expanding battery production. Plus, the marketing value of "eating your own dogfood" is huge.

The small number of trucks Tesla needs are only a drop in the bucket and won't even move the needle. Nobody cares if we use our own trucks or not. You use what's best for the mission.

 

[Sparky4life]

No demand

Why I bought a Tesla: One woman's experience buying Elon Musk's sleek EV

 

[ggr]

Mod: Cylindrical vs Pouch cells --ggr

 

[KSilver2000]

I think many R1T buyers will be comfortable charging mostly at home. In fact many are happy Tesla owners like myself.

True.
Not necessary for Riv to have a large charging network like Tesla. People usually don’t take pickup trucks for going on long road trips and vacation.


OT: I never understood some here that criticize other manufacturers for not having a large charging network, but then also criticize Tesla drivers who utilize local SC stations for commute charging.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Pretty damning I-PACE personal experience article. Makes you realize just how big Tesla's edge really is.

Jaguar I-PACE buyer shares ownership experience: range issues, regrets, Teslas, and why EV training matters

The choice bit:

Shah is currently looking to get a refund for his I-PACE (or at least a replacement unit), and when asked if this experience has discouraged him from EVs as a whole, the car enthusiast stated that his next vehicle will most definitely still be electric. Though this time around, he would make sure that his EV will be a Tesla.

 

[UncaNed]

We have this in Sweden. The rebates are good but introducing penalty taxes is tricky. It's like the Tesla tax credits ending in US but in reverse. At the end of this year Swedes will linely be buying dirty ICE like crazy because of the penalty tax increasing next year. Morons.

So any penalty tax should be a recurring property tax, not a one time purchase sales tax?

 

[dc_h]

The small number of trucks Tesla needs are only a drop in the bucket and won't even move the needle. Nobody cares if we use our own trucks or not. You use what's best for the mission.

They only need a few dozen for gigafactory to Fremont and Fremont to SFO, but if they wanted to manage distribution for N America and bypass the slow train system, they would need several hundred. If they shipped cars for Europe via truck to New Jersey they could take 2 weeks off of shipping time and do smaller steadier batches.

 

[EVNow]

The small number of trucks Tesla needs are only a drop in the bucket and won't even move the needle. Nobody cares if we use our own trucks or not. You use what's best for the mission.

Not true at all. Having worked in multiple companies with this kind of setting - if you don't use your own products, I can tell you the competitors will use that to beat you up in every deal.

 

[JRP3]

Not true at all. Having worked in multiple companies with this kind of setting - if you don't use your own products, I can tell you the competitors will use that to beat you up in every deal.

Bears have been talking about Tesla not using their vehicles as service vehicles for years, and doing the same about the Semi. It definitely matters.