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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I've yet to call when the car wouldn't drive (the car has always been able to drive), and never had an issue getting through to a person.

About a month ago, my regenerative braking stopped working and an error informed me to call service. I attempted three phone calls that day. Never got through to a person and found the new menu system very unhelpful. I gave up. Next morning, the car worked normally again.

Huge contrast to my past experiences with calling Tesla, and not for the better
 
About a month ago, my regents braking stopped working and an error informed me to call service. I attempted three phone calls that day. Never got through to a person and found the new menu system very unhelpful. I gave up. Next morning, the car worked normally again.

Huge contrast to my past experiences with calling Tesla, and not for the better

I have found the chat option to work best.
 
I wasnt home and had access to my phone but not a larger computer. Had the problem persisted the next day, I would have tried the chat option.

I'm a fan of new tech options, but the phones need to work for car support. Not everyone travels with a laptop.

I agree phones should always work. These communication and customer services responses should be the easiest for Tesla to fix. I don’t get it either.
 
Is that a USB stick in Andy's left hand instead of Woody? So, Infinity and Graham's Number, hmm? Exponential growth hints? Or the results of the 'engineering review' of Advanced Summon? ie: keep yer Dash Cam running...

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That’s a Juul

Juul - Wikipedia
 
This is some seriously impressive *sugar*. From a pile of dirt to all this in 6.5 months? The Chinese don't mess around.
I keep hoping to see some manufactoring equipment on the inside shots, but I haven't seen any. There have been reports that the equipment is being installed, but all I see are wiring races and ventillation utilities. What I found most exciting was the line of trucks with possibly large equipment queued up outside.
 
Ask yourself why GF4/EU is so much slower to come about. Its not just the money, its the policy and permitting support too, which is delaying GF4 by years.

GF4 needs equipment, not just a shell. The longer they wait to build, the better the equipment and the more profitable the cars. Better to have a line with the experiance of GF1 and GF3 than a copy of GF1. Also the issue of ramping the supply base to feed the machine.


Obama wouldn't let GM die in 2009. What makes you think Trump (or any conceivable future US Administration) would let GM die in 2029? Or Toyota in 2027? Or Daimler in 2025? BMW in 2023?

My point is national governments will step in to prevent the failure of these large corporations, which will inevitably extend the long tail of fossil fuel use.

The alternative future is one where ICEmakers see Tesla making money while eating market share at rates they drool over. Those competitors WANT to switch to EVs, because they see it as the only way survive. Porsche/Audi/VW are probably in this bunch.

Cheers!

2009 was a transitory drop in the economy and demand (I lived through reduced hours/ pay as a Tier 1 supplier). Then the pendulum swung back the other way and there was a lack of capacity to build.

This time it is not transitory. Sure, governments could try to prop up the ICE industry, but if people ain't buying, that won't help. Better course would be retraining/ retooling for other industries or funding for EV tech (which then gets into a big mess of gov vs private sector).

Tesla as a supplier to all would be an interesting scenario. More EV production and royalties off each sale. Still, dealers will have issues as the % ICE falls off and service dries up.
 
3) We know at SpaceX they optimized every single aspect of the rocket so far that no aerospace giant nor any country comes close to being able to compete. I would submit that Tesla is doing the same with vehicles.

Many years ago, I was lucky enough to get an invite to tour SpaceX. When I realized that Elon was manufacturing $60M rockets with Los Angeles labor rates and beating the state subsidized Chinese and Russians in price, well, that’s when the lightbulb went on for me. If he could do that with rockets, he could do it with cars.

Do you realize it is game over in rockets? The only reason other competitors exist is national government subsidies to prop up uneconomic companies.

I don’t know if we will ever, ever see a true Model 3 competitor. No one can build it at Tesla’s price point.
 
Yeah, its these 'corrections' to the trades that keep me up at night analyzing data...

Wanna see some After-hrs highlights? I've seen overnight 'corrections' above 500K shares. They also seems highly correlated to days with a high proportion of 'non-FINRA' short-trading volume. FINRA usually reports only about 60% of total trading volume (chk @ 6PM), but it can vary substantially day-to-day.

But you suspect correctly. This reporting system is about as opaque a data hole as any North of Calcutta. While correlation can not prove inference, it can damn sure make you go 'hmm'.

Cheers!

P.S. In the Artillery Command Post, we had a standard report on the radio whenever we fired a round in error: "CANCEL SHOT. READY OVER". Just ignore that rumbling noise you hear behind you, it's NOTHING I tell you, nothing to see here, move along... umh, you still there?

...paging @DragonWatch he'll tell ya. :D
Keep in mind, FINRA was funded, and is operated, by the major brokerage firms, like GS. You know, the firms who make the majority of their trading profits by lending shares to shorts. So, whatever they report to the SEC is likely specious. IMO.
 
Many years ago, I was lucky enough to get an invite to tour SpaceX. When I realized that Elon was manufacturing $60M rockets with Los Angeles labor rates and beating the state subsidized Chinese and Russians in price, well, that’s when the lightbulb went on for me. If he could do that with rockets, he could do it with cars.

Do you realize it is game over in rockets? The only reason other competitors exist is national government subsidies to prop up uneconomic companies.

I don’t know if we will ever, ever see a true Model 3 competitor. No one can build it at Tesla’s price point.

Yeah, basically nobody can compete with SpaceX on price since a few years ago. This difference will only get more astronomical with the upcoming spaceship. Basically SpaceX has 'won' the space industry.

When I was watching the autoline show yesterday I started to feel the same way about Tesla. It's really starting to feel like we're approaching a point of no return beyond which most car companies will not be able to catch up with Tesla anymore... ever. It's like the automotive consultant was saying, they don't know how to make money on EVs, and to do so would require massive investments that destroy their current businesses. If they had gone all-in five years ago, their size advantage over Tesla could've allowed them to catch up by being able to outspend Tesla. At this point, it's starting to feel like it's too late. They're so far behind that even if they invest 10s of billions like RIGHT NOW, I'm not sure they can ever catch up. Survive, possibly. Catch up, seems difficult.
 
Because the story is Tesla is dying because it isn't profitable. Making consistent profits makes Tesla viable long-term, wherein they eat the lunch of the big ICEmakers if they don't compete. Stockholders will abandon them like dying dogs.


Telsa IS getting billions of dollars worth of help right now from the government of China, and none at all from Wall St. Without Chinese national support, GF3 would't get into production in 12 months with a police escort into their market.

Indeed, the $200/share haircut Dec-Jun was blamed on what amounts to a 10-day delay in Q1 deliveries. In fact it was EXPRESSLY connived to hold back Tesla in any way possible. Ask yourself why GF4/EU is so much slower to come about. Its not just the money, its the policy and permitting support too, which is delaying GF4 by years.

That's the difference between GF3/China and GF4/EU: Help vs. no help. Ironically, by the time GF3/Phase 3 is building the $25K Model 2, China may be exporting new Tesla sub-compacts to the EU. o_O

I get what you’re saying, but here’s the thing; you’re handwringing unnecessarily.

It’ll go how it goes. You’ve got no control over what Tesla or OEMs do. Tesla has to do it their way for no other or better reason than because it’s their path to take and blaze. How others react is on them, not Tesla.

Tesla is continually adapting, changing, and tweaking, striving to find that delicate and often fleeting balance between growth and profits and margins and cash flow and efficiencies and, and, and.

It’s that constant transformation and metamorphosis that is on one hand fascinating, mesmerizing and awe inspiring, and on the other frustrating, head shake worthy and just aye caramba!!

Tesla just needs to keep on keeping on as best they know how and can. OEMs need to die. This sustainable revolution needs to start from the ground up. That’s been proven by both Tesla and OEMs. You can’t put lipstick on a pig.
 
Problem is, Tesla doesn’t know how to make money with EVs either.
So you're ignoring 2018 Q3 + Q4? That's still corporate knowledge. In 2019, they chose to invest in expanding their market share. Those efforts will pay off before 2019Q4 is over.

Tesla knows how to make money, and they also know how to increase the amount of money they make.
 
I nonetheless have the feeling that, in the end, some European country is going to make sure that Tesla gets the loans/incentives needed to make GF4 happen, and happen fast (by European standards, not by Chinese ones! ;) ). For example, I kind of get the sense that Poland is trying to steal them from Germany, the latter of which seems too complacent. Tesla may prefer to build in Germany, but if Poland ponies up the cash? Witamy w Polsce!

I agree. I believe Elon is just waiting for that specific European country to get their poo together and take the plunge.

Just as he waited out China to get the arrangement he wanted (which btw is equally beneficial to ALL parties, not one sided), he’s waiting for Europe.