Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KSilver2000]

We should always look at demand vs price and production.

If orders at current price > production, increase price. If orders at current price < production, lower price.

Production can be current or planned production.

So then do you believe demand for the 3 was lagging production in Q1 and Q2? Because Tesla has introduced cheaper 3’s and lowered prices during that period.

 

[Steve m]

So then do you believe demand for the 3 was lagging production in Q1 and Q2? Because Tesla has introduced cheaper 3’s and lowered prices during that period.

Too simplistic. Modeling demand needs more then just price and capabilities.

 

[Remus]

I'm not saying the FUD hasn't had any affect on some people. I'm saying it's hasn't caused demand issues. I know tons of people in the Pacific Northwest that see right through the FUD and have bought Model 3's during Q2. I would say some areas are stronger affect by FUD than others. I just don't think its' caused any sales issues. I think the cars being in too high of price brackets(back in Q4 and into Q1) naturally limits the amount of consumers and Tesla has been addressing that issue through high production to get to lower prices.

I wonder how many of them made an effort to get another EV such as bolt or leaf?


I don't know how many, but it seems to me those people that I have met are using that as an excuse. When I showed them the numbers they will cite some other nonsense excuses. I have to conclude that they have no interest in getting an EV at all.

 

[replicant]

No I don't think they would have had a higher ASP. I don't get why people are confused with this. Tesla was never going to sell 500k model 3's a year with a ASP of 60k. The sedan market is only so big and it's declining. There are only so many buyers in each price bracket. It's been shown many times how the customer base for a sedan that's 35-45k is exponentially bigger than 50K+.

Huge no to that. The Model 3 is now for sale in Europe and I have several friends and family here in France who would have already bought a LR or performance version if the FUD wasn't as prevalent. Every SR(+) sold is a LR not ordered. That's, among other goals, what the FUD is all about. It works.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Huge no to that. The Model 3 is now for sale in Europe and I have several friends and family here in France who would have already bought a LR or performance version if the FUD wasn't as prevalent. Every SR(+) sold is a LR not ordered. That's, among other goals, what the FUD is all about. It works.

Sorry, that sounds contrived. Please explain how FUD pushes people downmarket on model selection. If anything it turns them off electric entirely, allowing somebody less gullible to fill their order slot.

 

[SPadival]

Since many of the concern trolls here are going down the “plural of anecdote is data” rabbit hole, here is a funny one from the OG trolls




WTF is wrong with people!

 

[KarenRei]

Since many of the concern trolls here are going down the “plural of anecdote is data” rabbit hole, here is a funny one from the OG trolls

View attachment 432687

View attachment 432688
WTF is wrong with people!

Scot_Work is just a bad troll. I have trouble believing that even TSLAQ believes him.

 

[replicant]

Sorry, that sounds contrived. Please explain how FUD pushes people downmarket on model selection. If anything it turns them off electric entirely, allowing somebody less gullible to fill their order slot.

I'm not saying each customer is changing their selection downmarket because of FUD. I'm saying FUD is making many rich people postpone their Tesla purchase, so Tesla has to find less gullible people to sell less expensive cars.

It's a loss for Tesla because many would have bought the most expensive version of the cars without worrying much about the future of the company.

The market for Model 3 could have been double that of the mid-premium sedan market (thanks to the exceptional quality/performance of the car) but because of the FUD, the actual market is just the sedan market.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Anyone else notice that the fossil fuel fanbois / TSLAQ cultists and some of their journalist puppets are stepping up their FUD campaign again the past few days. Quite predictable ahead of earnings.

 

[DrMazeppa]

finally, it is ER week!

I have read about the consensus EPS forecasts from analysts, joke analysts and the rest, but I was wondering what is the view in here for the SP?

< $-2 EPS: TSLAQ heaven, profitability hell and SP back to 210
non-GAAP profit: little boost, then bear raid, then SP to stay ~260
GAAP profit: ludicrous mode and SP to 290

I know in the long term this does not matter, but I have a friend with some fingers in margin (I know...).

I know it is also about guidance, but with less than expected results this won't matter much.
Perhaps, with some form of profit and bullish guidance (Y, China, battery news...), then a little bear trap in the making. But I have been burnt before...

 

[KarenRei]

Anyone else notice that the fossil fuel fanbois / TSLAQ cultists and some of their journalist puppets are stepping up their FUD campaign again the past few days. Quite predictable ahead of earnings.

Everything that's said now will be meaningless after earnings. Nobody will care about anything except that which was said in the earnings letter / call. Esp. forward-looking statements.

 

[uselesslogin]

It is interesting the earnings call would be starting 6 minutes into the launch. That being said weather is only 30% go. I'm assuming the call was rescheduled so Elon good at least be there for pre-launch activities.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

It is interesting the earnings call would be starting 6 minutes into the launch. That being said weather is only 30% go. I'm assuming the call was rescheduled so Elon good at least be there for pre-launch activities.

You think the call will start on time?

 

[KarenRei]

You think the call will start on time?

Of course it won't. They need time to fudge their financial results, right?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Surely we see an SP rise today right? I mean... anyone with any sense will be grabbing some stock before Q2 results as there is obviously going to be a bit of a bump (he says...optimistically), so people will all buy on 24th...but the smart guys buy before the last minute rise on the 24th, so they buy on 23rd right? meaning the really smart guys buy today? RIGHT?
I predict we close at $264 today.

 

[T@oo]

Surely we see an SP rise today right? I mean... anyone with any sense will be grabbing some stock before Q2 results as there is obviously going to be a bit of a bump (he says...optimistically), so people will all buy on 24th...but the smart guys buy before the last minute rise on the 24th, so they buy on 23rd right? meaning the really smart guys buy today? RIGHT?
I predict we close at $264 today.

At least pre Markets seem to support your thesis.

 

[RobStark]

 

[LN1_Casey]

You think the call will start on time?

When has Tesla ever been on time?

 

[Thekiwi]

Nice to see $260 once again!

 

[Dangerous Fish]

1208 days and counting...