But those are the times when I catch up on this thread.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
But those are the times when I catch up on this thread.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Disappointed in the weak bears not being able to do more damage to the SP short term.
The whole point of Netflix is no ads. As in if Netflix starts with ads I'm no longer their customer.
Will this allow for logging into your own account, or will it offer a free, ad supported version instead? (or both) I could definitely see that option working out. If you already pay for it, Netflix is just giving you more value. If you aren't a subscriber then they might get you to join after watching a few ad supported shows.
I'm feeling pretty good about Tesla right now. I ended up buying a bit more at 230 today.
My average buy in price is about 280, but I plan on leaving it in Tesla at least 5-10 years, but probably more depending on how they are going. I thought I would just write down my high level thoughts on why I'm feeling so optimistic about Tesla now:
1) First mover advantage: on all the tech related to EVs. And not just by 3 years like I hear a lot of people saying, because this implies that competitors actually have the ability to catch up 3 years later. In 30 years from now when all cars are electric, I expect almost none of the ICE companies to have survived. It will be new players without the ICE baggage who are Tesla's competitors... or some traditional auto where someone like Steve Jobs comes in and transforms it from the edge of bankruptcy to something totally different.
2) Culture of innovation: electric motors, unicast body, wiring harness, dry electrode batteries, battery management, OTA software, FSD tech, unified cooling system, etc. Tesla has made so much progress in such a short time. And even more importantly, it's interesting to track all their mistakes and how they rapidly pivot away from them - like with HD maps or the body of the model 3. A lot of companies find it hard to admit their mistakes because of the politics. If they can keep up this pace of innovation they will continue to pull away from other companies, and I expect so long as Elon is in control they will continue to innovate.
3) Fiscally frugal: they have been trimming the fat for a few years now. I have worked in many large corporations and they are full of waste which eats them away from the inside. Contractors getting overpaid, inefficiencies which add up, employees taking the piss, middle management sending emails and organising meetings where they sit around listening to themselves talk, without having any technical knowledge.
4) Hiring talent: This is one of the most important aspects of whether a company is successful or not. Tesla is hard to get into, and everyone wants to work there, so they can choose from the best. And they are very involved with recruiting and promoting engineering, going directly to universities. Google used to be like this - not so much any more. Facebook is desperate for good people now days - contacting me every year even though I always say no. When it comes to technology/software 1 good engineer/programmer can be worth a 1000 times their salary to a company. But even more importantly bad engineers and programmers will drag a company down with them. I have seen it in so many places. I like how brutal Elon is with his expectations of employees and readiness to fire incompetence.... very Steve Jobs.
5) FSD: Obviously a game changer which is not factored into the stock price currently. Even on a timeframe of 10 years - it will align with my investment timeframe, although I expect to see lumpy incremental progress every release, often with large jumps long before 10 years. My timeframe for FSD is Elon + 3(±2) years, or about 4 years with a few years uncertainty either side. I have followed the science of FSD, and it's clear to me Tesla will win that race. It's not as important when they do it, so much that they are the first to do it. The lack on understanding most people have about the FSD race really represents a golden investment opportunity.
6) Green New Deal: There is a massive green movement underway. The climate deniers are dying off. The new generations are environmentally aware. Over the next decade, we can expect a massive push for electrification, supported by governments who have agreed to climate targets... it's already started and it is picking up momentum. Driven by climate change and the fear of what will come, Tesla is perfectly poised to benefit from a period of exponential growth in EVs, solar and storage. A lot of companies are successful because of the timing of technological advances (Microsoft/Apple come to mind). Elon has had impeccable timing on all his companies, and it feels like his timing with Tesla and the green movement is going to be great too.
7) China: China is a bigger auto market than the US. They are the number 1 economy adjusted for PPP. They have a faster electric uptake. China has a wealthy growing middle class. The Chinese government are letting Tesla ramp up at maximum speed. Chinese cars will be much cheaper to produce and will have higher margins. Given all this, I think Tesla is sandbagging on how important the Chinese market is. I expect Chinese profits to eclipse US profits within 10 years.
8) Elon: Bezos might be richer, but he had a head start, in easier industries. Jobs is a close comparison, but Elon is way more technical and impressive in my view. Other tech titans like Zuckerberg/Page/Brin mostly just rested on their laurels, with limited ambition. Elon's ambition is clearly out in front, as is his track record for bringing about very difficult tasks. While he is leading Tesla, the company is clearly going to make mostly correct choices.
9) SpaceX Effect: SpaceX will have their Starship flying to the moon and Mars within my investment timeframe of 10 years. The amount of hype from this is going to propel the Tesla stock price. Not to mention, make more people want to own a Tesla or work for Tesla.
10) Shorts/FUD: The stock price is artificially low because of the shorts/FUD/stock manipulation. As soon as Tesla starts showing profit consistently, there is a large upside of shorts leaving and the stock will not be manipulated as easily. The short interest will be on par with other large tech companies like Amazon. Buying under 250 is going to seem like a dream investment in a few years.
There are probably more reasons to be excited about Tesla, but I'll stop here. These 10 points for me show how Tesla has created a perfect set of conditions for success.
My average buy in price is about 280, but I plan on leaving it in Tesla at least 5-10 years, but probably more depending on how they are going. I thought I would just write down my high level thoughts on why I'm feeling so optimistic about Tesla now:
1) First mover advantage: on all the tech related to EVs. And not just by 3 years like I hear a lot of people saying, because this implies that competitors actually have the ability to catch up 3 years later. In 30 years from now when all cars are electric, I expect almost none of the ICE companies to have survived. It will be new players without the ICE baggage who are Tesla's competitors... or some traditional auto where someone like Steve Jobs comes in and transforms it from the edge of bankruptcy to something totally different.
2) Culture of innovation: electric motors, unicast body, wiring harness, dry electrode batteries, battery management, OTA software, FSD tech, unified cooling system, etc. Tesla has made so much progress in such a short time. And even more importantly, it's interesting to track all their mistakes and how they rapidly pivot away from them - like with HD maps or the body of the model 3. A lot of companies find it hard to admit their mistakes because of the politics. If they can keep up this pace of innovation they will continue to pull away from other companies, and I expect so long as Elon is in control they will continue to innovate.
3) Fiscally frugal: they have been trimming the fat for a few years now. I have worked in many large corporations and they are full of waste which eats them away from the inside. Contractors getting overpaid, inefficiencies which add up, employees taking the piss, middle management sending emails and organising meetings where they sit around listening to themselves talk, without having any technical knowledge.
4) Hiring talent: This is one of the most important aspects of whether a company is successful or not. Tesla is hard to get into, and everyone wants to work there, so they can choose from the best. And they are very involved with recruiting and promoting engineering, going directly to universities. Google used to be like this - not so much any more. Facebook is desperate for good people now days - contacting me every year even though I always say no. When it comes to technology/software 1 good engineer/programmer can be worth a 1000 times their salary to a company. But even more importantly bad engineers and programmers will drag a company down with them. I have seen it in so many places. I like how brutal Elon is with his expectations of employees and readiness to fire incompetence.... very Steve Jobs.
5) FSD: Obviously a game changer which is not factored into the stock price currently. Even on a timeframe of 10 years - it will align with my investment timeframe, although I expect to see lumpy incremental progress every release, often with large jumps long before 10 years. My timeframe for FSD is Elon + 3(±2) years, or about 4 years with a few years uncertainty either side. I have followed the science of FSD, and it's clear to me Tesla will win that race. It's not as important when they do it, so much that they are the first to do it. The lack on understanding most people have about the FSD race really represents a golden investment opportunity.
6) Green New Deal: There is a massive green movement underway. The climate deniers are dying off. The new generations are environmentally aware. Over the next decade, we can expect a massive push for electrification, supported by governments who have agreed to climate targets... it's already started and it is picking up momentum. Driven by climate change and the fear of what will come, Tesla is perfectly poised to benefit from a period of exponential growth in EVs, solar and storage. A lot of companies are successful because of the timing of technological advances (Microsoft/Apple come to mind). Elon has had impeccable timing on all his companies, and it feels like his timing with Tesla and the green movement is going to be great too.
7) China: China is a bigger auto market than the US. They are the number 1 economy adjusted for PPP. They have a faster electric uptake. China has a wealthy growing middle class. The Chinese government are letting Tesla ramp up at maximum speed. Chinese cars will be much cheaper to produce and will have higher margins. Given all this, I think Tesla is sandbagging on how important the Chinese market is. I expect Chinese profits to eclipse US profits within 10 years.
8) Elon: Bezos might be richer, but he had a head start, in easier industries. Jobs is a close comparison, but Elon is way more technical and impressive in my view. Other tech titans like Zuckerberg/Page/Brin mostly just rested on their laurels, with limited ambition. Elon's ambition is clearly out in front, as is his track record for bringing about very difficult tasks. While he is leading Tesla, the company is clearly going to make mostly correct choices.
9) SpaceX Effect: SpaceX will have their Starship flying to the moon and Mars within my investment timeframe of 10 years. The amount of hype from this is going to propel the Tesla stock price. Not to mention, make more people want to own a Tesla or work for Tesla.
10) Shorts/FUD: The stock price is artificially low because of the shorts/FUD/stock manipulation. As soon as Tesla starts showing profit consistently, there is a large upside of shorts leaving and the stock will not be manipulated as easily. The short interest will be on par with other large tech companies like Amazon. Buying under 250 is going to seem like a dream investment in a few years.
There are probably more reasons to be excited about Tesla, but I'll stop here. These 10 points for me show how Tesla has created a perfect set of conditions for success.
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... which Analyst thought of these measures when modeling Tesla's future Cash Requirements ?
.Moving old production equipment to China
.Using Fremont for MY
.loans from China to build GF3
.Using Grohman to build required machinery (& Vertically integrate further)
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Well, net debt was 8.29b at the start of the year so <3% reduction YTD. And that was after raising 850m via public stock offering in May, which I don't expect will happen in 2H. So 7b by yearend seems unlikely.I think this important point from Q2 has been largely overlooked: Tesla is steadily deleveraging the company.
Mayur M Thaker, CFA @freshjiva Jul 26
$TSLA balance sheet delevering underway:
Net Debt (Total Debt - Cash):
- 2Q19: $8.07 billion (-12% seq. & Y-o-Y decline)
- 1Q19: $9.16 billion
- 2Q18: $9.23 billion
- Likely to approach $7 billion by end of year to become among the least leveraged companies relative to EBITDA.
Leasing programs have debt and cash flow effects that are not easily untangled. The leased vehicle portfolio was stable for a while, then shrank in Q1 as more leases rolled off than were added. That reversed in Q2 when they started Model 3 leasing. I expect the lease vehicle portfolio to increase net debt by ~250m in 2H. That's partly offset by the solar lease portfolio which is moving in the opposite direction as they've stopped adding new solar systems to the portfolio so monthly payments are nibbling away at the associated debt.
Actually, does anybody remember that Elon previously said they were only considering movies over wi-fi, because pumping that volume of data via their AT&T LTE connection is going to add a lot of cost to Tesla? I thought maybe if you want to do a hotspot from your personal cell that'd be ok, but otherwise they need to work out how this will be paid for.
Surprised that he's talking about it in a context of driving / FSD... I think you may have to pay some monthly fees for this if using their LTE connection.
Amazon Prime has some content included, some is extra charge and I just noticed they started offering some movies with an option "free, agree to see some ads". If that's your choice, not a big deal, although if all content slowly migrates into this category that'd be a problem.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Considering the current exuberance on this forum, I'm guessing any minute we will start heading back to 180.
10Q includes regional sales numbers, did they do that before?
Tesla's (TSLA) sales grew over 40% in China this year - Electrek
Tesla's (TSLA) sales grew over 40% in China this year - Electrek
Sorry if this has already been posted, but this is hilarious! I'm surprised they even bothered to change the headline...
Perhaps we can hang Tesla service center signs outside our houses, that will really get the demand going.Musk has recognized numerous times that new service centers drive growth in those areas. The fact that they are selling the volumes they are currently selling with a service network still in it's infancy is a positive, not a negative. With Tesla's only affordable offerings currently being limited market share sedans, which primarily appeal to urban dwellers, it makes sense to not fully build out the service network until they have the more desirable crossover available.
Tesla has a number of demand triggers at their disposal for stimulating future growth. We have only just begun!
Unfortunately if a Tesla does turn up I can only offer a prayer service.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Hey - Don't make me wax poetic about fixing my own Model S Unresponsive Driver Door Handle which cost a grand... total of $41 plus tax and two hours. Shade-Tree EV Mechanic will be a thing.
I'm proud of my workaround, though - looped the Seat Belt behind the handle and pulled from the back door to get in
Service Ctr had the wiring harness I needed and a WAY supportive attitude!But make no mistake, I will never be nostalgic about fuel-system repairs or oil pans, all those hydrocarbon nasties trying to get in my face. Or starters come to think of it. FRACK starters. Damn electric ...oh.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
They've done it as long as I can remember. They originally included countries that represented 10% of sales - China and Norway. The Netherlands bumped above 10% one quarter, so they included it. The last few reported included all three, even though each fell below 10% at various times.
Despite the title, a pretty level headed assessment of Tesla right now.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4278530-tesla-problem
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4278530-tesla-problem
dc_h
Active Member
Or he may not know what the heck he's talking about? Short term regulatory credits are or have been more important to gross margins than FSD and manufacturing and logistics efficiency has been more important than both FSD and credits. I would guess margins will pick up 2 to 3% again this quarter as volume increases and costs hold steady. That is only 100 to 150 million in added free cash flow. If credits are also back within the normal range, they should add another 100 million, which is 2% to margins. If version 10 is released in Q3 with summon, they should realize another 100 to 200 million in deferred credit, which is good for profit, but neutral regarding cash flow. Inventory reduction is not likely this quarter and could go up 100 to 200 million, but that should still level out to at least 300 million in positive cash flow and possibly non-GAAP break even.
Revenue should be up at least 500 million and up to 1 billion from Q2. About 500 million in additional model 3 sales, 200 to 300 million in added SX sales and 100 to 300 million in added Tesla Energy.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You would refuse them a cup of tea and use of your phone so they could summon a Tesla Mobile Service Technician?
Oh, wait, they could do that from their center touchscreen!
anthonyj
Stonks
Exuberance doesn’t exist below $250. Maybe from option players. Tesla has $5b cash and good FCF lol. Big upside moves coming
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