Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

In addition to being stupid, the article is also factually inaccurate such as claiming "Tesla's cars sell for between $50,000-100,000."

Or to put it another way, "Tesla's cars sell for between their ASP and double their ASP" Can't get any more nonsensical than that.

 

[LN1_Casey]

For those freaking out about the re-introduction of free supercharging for Raven Model S and X: it could simply be that Tesla found out too many current owners are afraid to lose their current free supercharging when they upgrade.

It could also be their attempt to make the S/X more "worth" the higher price tag. It makes sense for the more "luxurious" models to get the free unlimted vice the more eco-concious version.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Mark Graban on Twitter

View attachment 437882

How much money is the Gas and Oil companies paying you to publish the book?

 

[KarenRei]

How much money is the Gas and Oil companies paying you to publish the book?

Ask questions there, not here. He's surely not reading TMC.

 

[Xenius]

Ask questions there, not here. He's surely not reading TMC.

I doubt he's reading much if he's talking with derpermeyer.

 

[schonelucht]

On the contrary TSLAQ most certainly reads these forums.

 

[MartinAustin]

Time for a new avatar....

I have to say, this weekend's posts have been REALLY interesting to read. Well done everyone

And I thought TSLA would be up pre-market as a result of all the bullish news. Thanks Trump...

 

[ReflexFunds]

The UBS/Munro 2017 Bolt teardown had 4400 for a Golf TSi Wolfsburg. I figure the high volume Camry 4cyl is a few hundred less than the turbocharged Golf engine.

They showed 8500 for a BMW 330i, which is more equivalent to a Model 3 and shows why Tesla was smart to target the premium performance segment instead of mainstream family cars.

They also had ~3800 for the Bolt. That's pretty consistent with 4500 for the higher performance Model 3. It doesn't cost as much to increase BEV power as it does for ICE.

Power is cheap in a BEV, but range is expensive. Performance sedans are ripe for the picking, but econo-cars are a much tougher nut to crack. The operating cost advantage is less with econo-cars, too, due to high MPG. Especially with something like the 50 mpg Camry Hybrid.

Trucks are another high power segment and have a good operating cost advantage. But towing range is extremely expensive. I see trucks being a tough market, except for very high end and local fleets. Both are sizable sub-markets, though.

These are the LR RWD powertrain (ex battery pack) costs ($4.5k) extracted from the Munro teardown (via the UBS report). The Tesla costs are not fully accurate (in particular the cell costs at $148/kwh are too high and UBS later partnered with battery specialists P3 to reduce their Model 3 battery cost estimate to $111/kwh), while he likely underestimated the added cost from some of Tesla's investment in durability and safety. But still I think Munro is the best source for cost of each component outside of Tesla itself. Munro put mass market ICE powertrain costs at $6.5k vs luxury at $8.5k.

August 2018 UBS/Munro report https://tff-forum.de/download/file.php?id=40657&sid=99690fbfafbb55f47f237c96dbc7438f
November 2018 UBS/P3 report http://xqdoc.imedao.com/16764c45aca1ea83fdfe1636.pdf (Particualrly interesting results from this cell teardown were 1) $30/kWh Gigafactory’s cost lead over LG Chem, 2) $2.7-3.8k Tesla’s cost advantage over competitors at pack level and 3) Tesla saves another ~$2,000 battery cost per car through superior electronics).

We also had the below discussion in the 4Q18 earnings call.

Toni Sacconaghi
And how big do you think that delta is today? And when it's - do you think of it as being kind of $10,000, $11,000 for that pack plus powertrain for an electric vehicle and maybe $5,000 or $6,000 for an internal combustion engine car? And is that sort of the order of magnitude? And where do you see those getting much more aligned just sort of given the lives of where you think cell and pack costs are going?

Elon Musk
... - that said, in terms of initial cost of acquisition, I think it's probably - this is just off the top of my head, not a calculated number, probably on the order of 7k but trending towards 4k or 5k. It's off the top of my head.

My read was that the $4-5k gap mentioned by Elon was after cost savings within the current Model 3 platform, but not completely clear.

 

[Xenius]

On the contrary TSLAQ most certainly reads these forums.

There's a difference between reading, and comprehending.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Rumours of LG supplying GF3

 

[Bobfitz1]

• EU Giga likely to be a much slower project than they expect and hard to see how you get to 2mln production without it

Good post. EU Giga being much slower I think would depend hugely on whether it is built from scratch or on the site of a shuttered existing auto factory of sufficient size (at least for the first few phases). [If the existing factory site had land to accommodate new buildings for later phases, that could make a smaller existing factory possible.] I'm assuming here that the EU regulatory time component is mainly to site and build a large new factory, and much less for refurbishing and setting up new assembly lines in an existing one.
GF3's amazing time to initial production seems to demonstrate that if long lead time machinery is procured in advance, the robots and other machinery can be set up, tested and begin initial operation in about half a year.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Ask questions there, not here. He's surely not reading TMC.

Haha, yeah, but then my twitter would certainly get added to the TSLAQ block list. ;-)

 

[Xenius]

Haha, yeah, but then my twitter would certainly get added to the TSLAQ block list. ;-)

That's a badge of honor. Plus it helps you find the few TSLAQ types who aren't totally concealed in their padded room, errr, I mean echo chamber.

 

[Fact Checking]

Rumours of LG supplying GF3View attachment 437889

Fits the Q2 earnings call Kremlinology analysis on who the GF3 partner is:

I think if it was Panasonic they'd have no problem saying that out loud, right? So pretty much the only other possibility is either Samsung who makes 2170 cells, or, more likely, a local Chinese cell supplier?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Barrons interview with Catherine Wood.

Tesla, Bitcoin, and the Inverted Yield Curve Herald a New Era of Growth

Wood compares today's yield curve to that of 1879-1929 when electricity, telephone and the IC engine were invented, triggering incredible growth, productivity and wealth generation.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Wood compares today's yield curve to that of 1879-1929 when electricity, telephone and the IC engine were invented, triggering incredible growth, productivity and wealth generation.

And we were on the gold standard....

 

[Doggydogworld]

GF3's amazing time to initial production seems to demonstrate that if long lead time machinery is procured in advance, the robots and other machinery can be set up, tested and begin initial operation in about half a year.

You can do it a lot faster if you pre-test each section. Ford did their F-150 line in two months. They kept most of the old paint shop, but tore the rest of the factory down to bare floor.
How Ford's Largest Truck Factory Was Completely Overhauled in 8 Weeks

 

[mongo]

Article on Model 3 demand vs EVs in general. Ignores the standard export in the first month fluctuations.
www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2019/08/04/car-buyers-may-not-prefer-electric-vehicles-but-they-prefer-the-tesla-model-3

 

[Freder Reeve]

one of the most impressive word-of-mouth, free-advertising youtube videos I've seen yet.

sort of OT but felt compelled to share, makes me extra-bullish to see responses like these.

 

[kbM3]

(Not that it matters much, but the average quarter is 13 weeks long, not 12 weeks long.)

More importantly, I don't think the early $42k ASP estimate at 500k/year production is valid anymore.

Since it seems the current $50k ASP roughly maps to a demand of 350k / year, what ASP do you see generating demand of (500k to 750k) / year? $45k?