Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Narrow Den]

Mod: I just want to mention that when we move posts, the message that the poster gets is complete boilerplate that is completely NOT under any control of the moderators, except for the usually short explanation we provide in the middle. We've complained about that wording before. I will complain again. --ggr

Edit: Yes, @neroden is banned. No, it wasn't because of his criticism of Tesla. Now can we let it go?

But is he really?

 

[Chocochip]

31K upvotes vs 8K downvotes. That's pretty bad, isn't it?

Is it because "This video was sponsored by BMW"?

Short answer: yes!

Long answer: most subscribers to the channel feel that this video has subpar quality and content, uncharacteristically so. There were complains that most of the info in the video sounded like it came straight from a BMW marketing blurb (while the video was supposed to discuss EVs in general, there were multiple references to existing and upcoming BMW electric models), so if Derek wasn't going to add his own input then he shouldn't have bothered.

 

[Chocochip]

But is he really?

"No, Officer, the man I saw looked nothing like the man in this photo! He had a big furry moustache and thick-rimmed glasses!"

 

[EVNow]

TSLA making lower lows and lower highs, looks weak today.

Now below 226. No news that I can see … and low volume.

 

[KarenRei]

Now below 226. No news that I can see … and low volume.

Well, Tesla well outperformed NASDAQ and other automakers yesterday. Guess that was too much to ask for :Þ

 

[Tslynk67]

OT, but anyway Tesla doesn't have a hitch, I just installed a Torklift Stealth Hitch, search the forums.

Is the hitch just on Euro cars for the moment, or is it on USA cars, but not retrofittable?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yes.

That's really disappointing. He was very insightful. This board is worse off for the ban.

 

[tschmidty]

Is the hitch just on Euro cars for the moment, or is it on USA cars, but not retrofittable?

Only Euro has the official hitch. but note that on my 4/19 M3 the bottom panel had a small panel to accommodate a hitch. Looked at parts catalog and it is not updated to show this part. On Euro Hitches it is usually an odd set up where it pokes out of the bottom which is somewhat similar to the way the removable receivers work so it worked well for me.

Torklift Stealth Hitch Install Notes on newer Model 3s

 

[tschmidty]

That's really disappointing. He was very insightful. This board is worse off for the ban.

I actually agree, but I also think his inability to post anything without screaming/crying/whining about "service hell" was getting really old. It was only his occasional informative posts that kept him off the ignore list for me.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I actually agree, but I also think his inability to post anything without screaming/crying/whining about "service hell" was getting really old. It was only his occasional informative posts that kept him off the ignore list for me.

I agree. Very knowledgeable and informative, but had a flair for the dramatic to be sure. I don't know what happened so I'll refrain from weighing in on the ban itself, but this board has definitely lost a valuable resource.

 

[Carl Raymond]

If I was a TSLA concern troll, who had run out of ammunition because the cars are so good and the company is so cashed up, I would switch to concern trolling the economy. It’s easy with so much ammo: trade wars, brexit, fossil fuel sector in permanent decline.

But there won’t be a recession. For the ff sector to be in decline, it means it’s being outdone by something newer, cheaper and better, and that is a huge economic driver. It may look like a recession if viewed from ICE land, but draw a bigger circle that includes the booming cleantech sector.

Please view all posts dropping the R word with healthy scepticism. I will view them with suspicion.

 

[ReflexFunds]

To be more clear, my guess is that the number one and quickest benefit of Maxwell’s technology is to allow for a thicker cathode layer and hence a higher active materials volume ratio and higher cell energy densities even with existing cathode chemistry.

The cathode energy density is generally the limiting factor in cell energy density so obviously increasing the % of cathode material in a cell is the easiest way to increase cell energy density. In fact I understand this has been the key driver of battery cell improvements over the past 20 years – “The gradual improvement in energy density over the last 20 to 25 years was mostly due to cell engineering, which has increased the volume ratio of active materials from ~20% in early Li-ion cells to ~45% in today’s state-of-art cells [7,8]. Thickening electrodes in cell stacks while making current collectors and separators thinner is one effective approach to continuously increasing the active material content for higher energy density and lowcost Li-ion batteries.” Understanding limiting factors in thick electrode performance as applied to high energy density Li-ion batteries (Journal Article) | OSTI.GOV

The problem with this simple approach is increasing cathode thickness beyond a certain amount can lead to underutilisation of the cathode materials and also lower power density. So you get diminishing returns and counterproductive effects after a certain thickness.

I think this is why the focus shifted to solid state batteries – lithium metal anodes have a much higher energy density so they allow for much thinner anode and hence a higher % of cathode in the overall cell (solid state can theoretically have other potential benefits like faster charge time, increased cycles, less flammable etc). The solid state electrolyte is mainly just there as requirement to safely manufacture lithium metal anodes.

It looks like Maxwell is increasing cathode thickness c.50% within the current 18650 cell design. So they must be reducing thickness of the electrolyte, anode or separators etc a corresponding amount (anode thickness reduction would require a new anode chemistry with higher energy density). If they manage to fully utilize the full thickness of this cathode material without adverse impact to power density, safety, cycle life etc, they should get a significant increase in cell energy density without changing the cathode chemistry while remaining viable for quick deployment in EVs.

I think Tesla’s battery breakthrough approach may end up looking very much like their Camera vs Lidar approach for Autonomy. Everyone else spends 5 years trying to bring Lidar costs down from $100k to $10k while Tesla gets further just using cameras which were $100 all along. Everyone else spends 5-10 years trying to commercialise new solid state battery designs while Tesla specs beat solid state just from iterating the current technology.

Also, I'm not a battery cell expert, i've only followed the tech for a while and read a bunch of papers, so someone correct me if any of this is wrong.

Jeff Dahn's battery research group has published a new paper in Nature about a lab breakthrough which could potentially allow lithium metal anodes without requiring solid state batteries. Long cycle life and dendrite-free lithium morphology in anode-free lithium pouch cells enabled by a dual-salt liquid electrolyte
The primary motive for developing solid state batteries is because it was believed this was the only way to safely manufacture batteries with lithium metal anodes. A lithium metal anode is good because it significantly reduces the thickness of the anode, allowing a higher % of cathode in the cell and hence much higher energy densities. The downside of solid state batteries is that much of our existing battery tech and manufacturing processes have to be redesigned from scratch - and any of these redesigns could prove the bottleneck to commercialisation of solid state.
This breakthrough is very significant because it means we could potentially incorporate a lithium metal anode into existing liquid electrolyte battery tech, with current cell designs and current cathode tech (potentially this method just replaces the complex anode with a simple copper plate and requires a change of electrolyte).

This research is still just a lab result and only reached 90 charge–discharge cycles before the cell was degraded to 80% capacity - so a long way still from commercialisation. It is also unclear of the cost of the new lithium salts used in the electrolyte. Really this tech will have to get to 1,000 charge-discharge cycles before it can compete with Tesla's current next gen tech. However, this result was achieved with what looks like largely off the shelf NMC 5,3,2 pouch cells (just with only a copper sheet in place of an anode and the electrolyte added by Dahn's team in the lab). We don't have enough details, but I think there is a reasonable chance this tech is already closer to commercialisation than solid state batteries, and could render solid state obsolete.

The main issue with the cell design used in this study is that the dual lithium salts in the electrolyte were depleted through the charge cycles. However they also discovered some types of salts that were not depleted and I see a chance they can make huge improvements to the cycle life through much more testing of different salt combinations, together with optimising choice of cathode/other cell design choices etc.
In the paper they note: "Strategies to overcome this salt consumption may be applied to achieve further gains in lifetime, such as increasing electrolyte content and molarity, and pairing salts that are consumed with those that are not. Such continued success may ultimately shift the focus for enabling lithium-metal batteries from solid-state electrolytes back towards all-liquid electrolytes."

 

[CorneliusXX]

You have contributed 24 comments in 7 years. The Mods are here daily. I think I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. Good if you can get the milk for free, wot?

Disagree. If there is a legit reason to ban a longstanding member the mods should state their reasons if requested.

 

[ReflexFunds]

"Glencore Plc will halt production at Mutanda mine, the world’s largest cobalt mine, from the end of this year after a slump in prices for cobalt, Financial Times reported on Tuesday.
The company will shut the mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo because it is “no longer economically viable”, the FT said, citing a letter to employees of the mine.
Glencore said last week it faced a $350 million hit after cobalt prices halved and has begun an overhaul of its under-performing Africa business." Glencore to halt production at world's largest cobalt mine - FT - Reuters

Tesla's NCA cells use far less cobalt than other EV makers (i think 25% of the cobalt per kwh vs NMC 622), but this could still be a minor headwind if it leads to price increases on non-artisan cobalt supply. I think Tesla' NCA is really NCA 9.3 0.5 0.2 so long term, cobalt price increases or supply issues ares a competitive advantage for Tesla.

In my view short term, cobalt prices (and lithium prices) are down because China's EV subsidy cuts (and some bans on EV startups building new factories) have led to a large near term slowdown in EV expansion plans in the country. So some of the raw material supply ramp for these delayed EV programs is now flooding the market. Cobalt prices have also been impacted by a likely permanent shift away from high cobalt chemistries.
China's recent move to a much more aggressive ZEV mandate policy should counter this EV growth slowdown over time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now below 226. No news that I can see … and low volume.

Intraday low was 225.75 and the 50-day moving avg is currently 225.69 with volume at just 4.0M shares by 2:15 pm.

People constantly say they don't believe in TA and they don't believe the SP action.

 

[mrmage]

Woo hoo! Sold puts @anthonyj style this morning, and made my first ever profitable trade on TSLA. Low five figure gain... in cents.

 

[EVNow]

People constantly say they don't believe in TA ...

I believe that other people believe in TA - so I pay attention to it

 

[RobStark]

All-Time Top 5 (until June 2019)
1. Nissan Leaf (422.708)

2. Tesla Model S (277.176)

3. Tesla Model 3 (276.193)

4. Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (215.385)

5. BYD Qin / Qin Pro (PHEV+BEV) (184.692)

EV Sales: All-Time Top 5 (until June 2019)

Model 3 overtook Model S in all-time sales in July 2019.

It will take roughly a year for Model 3 to overtake LEAF.

 

[dgodfrey]

Woo hoo! Sold puts @anthonyj style this morning, and made my first ever profitable trade on TSLA. Low five figure gain... in cents.

I refer to that as 5 figures counting both sides of the decimal point. Congrats

 

[mrmage]

I refer to that as 5 figures counting both sides of the decimal point. Congrats

Thanks! The family will be treated to Impossible Whoppers tonight.