It's hard to tell who is being sarcastic and who really believes this crap.
Credits - 327m in 1H + 111m guided in Q3. Even with a huge Q4 bump it's not "800 million, probably a billion".
Revenue -
2019 - 27b (guidance implies 24-26)
2020 - 35b (possible, but so is 30b)
2022 - 100b (sigh)
China - 70% less to build what? Cars? LOL. Ron knows better. The empty building shell? That's possible, but not very relevant to Tesla's economics.
I think Ron was referring to 70% less to build the factory, not the car, but he could have been more articulate. It does appear that production of some sort is imminent, but not likely to be 3000 a week this year. If they can start building a few cars and get test production going and get to 1000 cars a week by the end of the year, the news should be great. If they build 1500 a week in 2020, that would imply at least 8000 Model 3's a week. It seems likely that 3000 a week in Shanghai seems likely by end of Q1. If they do hit 10,000 Model 3's a week and stay around 1500 SX, their costs for some items, like the FSD chipset and their software costs per vehicle fall as much as depreciation costs. Once Shanghai is producing at 3000 a week, margins should be 30% or more. They have a lot of work to do to make 10,000 cars a week happen, but it will be a great milestone for those of us who bought in when they hit 100 cars a week.
Assuming ASP declines as Shanghai comes online, Model 3 revenue should still be close to 500 million a week for the Model 3 and over 100 million for SX, combined for about 600 million a week. Add in Tesla Energy and used car sales and revenue should be close to 40 billion. The Y may come online in 2020, but revenue is not likely to be nearly as significant as Shanghai Model 3. As important, Shanghai with the Y coming up should setup a very strong 2021, where they can beat 50% growth again. If they build more than 3000 cars a week in Shanghai in 2020, then revenue and cash flow should be strong and Tesla can end 2020 with some serious FU money in the bank.
I don't see how revenue comes in below 35 billion for 2020 if they hit the low end of their goals and 40 billion seems very attainable. I think the 2021 and 2022 crystal ball will start working better in Q1 of 2020 when they start announcing products and setting more firm dates for the Y, Roadster, Semi and Pickup (and that Sprinter van I've been asking for).
The exciting thing for 2021 is if they plan on bringing Y production online in Shanghai immediately after getting Fremont running. Shanghai endstate is targeting 15,000 cars a week. If they get close to 10,000 in 2021, that is an extra 50 billion a year (
sigh).
